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NASCAR Betting Driver Notes

NASCAR Cup Series Driver Notes
*Notable driver notes

*Stats reflect start of 2020 season

Alex Bowman #88: Officially entering 6th full-time season (drove for BK Racing 2014-2015) and 4th season with Hendrick Motorsports. Bowman has shown improvement in each season throughout his youthful career including a career-high 15 top 10 finishes in 2020. Bowman’s best tracks reside at Dover and the ROVAL. Bowman has recorded 3 top 5 finishes at Dover in 10 starts and recorded finishes of 4th, 2nd, and 8th in 3 career starts at the Charlotte ROVAL course.

Aric Almirola #10: Entering 10th full-time season in Cup Series following a career best 2020 campaign. In 2020, Almirola recorded career-highs that involved 6 top 5 finishes and 18 top 10 finishes. Almirola’s only wins (2) stem from superspeedway action at both Daytona and Talladega. Almirola is also a very underrated short track talent with multiple top 5 finishes at Dover, Loudon, Phoenix, and Richmond.

Austin Dillon #3: Entering 7th full-time season in Cup Series. Earned first Cup Series victory in 2017 in the Coca Cola 600. Remains an underrated superspeedway driver because of aggressiveness which also leads to many DNFs. Failed to record a single top 5 finish in 2019 as the struggles with Richard Childress Racing continue. Aside from the superspeedways, Dillon’s best tracks are Fontana and Homestead.

Brad Keselowski #2: Entering 11th full-time season in the Cup Series. Former 2012 Cup Series Champion. Universal driving talent that has proven that he can win on any surface. Recorded 3 wins (Atlanta/Martinsville/Kansas) in 2019 but fell off in performance towards the end of the year. Best track is Talladega (5 wins in just 22 starts) and Kentucky (3 wins in 9 starts). Also runs very well each year at Chicagoland and Martinsville.

Bubba Wallace #43: Entering 3rd full-time season in the Cup Series. Driving once again for the King with the #43 team, Wallace nearly scored a huge underdog victory in the 2018 Daytona 500 with a career best runner-up finish. Wallace is often a bottom tier type driver mainly due to inferior equipment and has just 4 career top 10 finishes. Best track has easily been Daytona with a notable mention at Kentucky. Struggles significantly at road course venues.

Chase Elliott #9: Entering 5th full-time season after winning Rookie of the Year in 2016. Elliott has recorded 3 wins in each of the past two seasons. Struggles with Hendrick Motorsports may have limited his win potential in recent years but Elliott has quickly become one of the best road course racers in the sport with 3 victories (Watkins Glen – 2, Charlotte Roval – 1). Elliott also owns extremely strong average finishing positions at Chicagoland, Michigan, and Homestead.

Chris Buescher #37: Entering 5th full-time season in Cup Series and will be moving to the #17 team at Roush Fenway Racing which should improve his performance. Buescher owns one victory stemming from the rain shortened win at Pocono in 2016. Buescher does not have any track type performance trends like most drivers. Surprisingly Buescher’s best track statistically is at Darlington.

Christopher Bell #95: Entering 1st full-time season in Cup Series and will take over the #95 car previously filled by Matt DiBenedetto. After recording 15 wins in the past two seasons in the Xfinity Series driving the #20 car for Joe Gibbs Racing, Bell earned the seat with the #95 team that also has an alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing. Bell appears to be the next big talent and has shown the immediate potential to contend on the short tracks. All rookies will have a learning curve and Bell is no exception despite enormous potential.

Clint Bowyer #14: Entering 15th full-time season in Cup Series and 4th year with Stewart-Haas Racing. After scoring 2 wins in 2018, Bowyer was held winless in 2019 with 7 top 5 finishes and 18 top 10 finishes. Bowyer performs best on smaller tracks especially flat surfaces with multiple victories at both Loudon and Richmond. Also, owns solid Talladega resume that includes two victories and great results in each appearance at the ROVAL at Charlotte.

Cole Custer #41: Entering 1st full-time season in Cup Series taking over for Daniel Suarez in the #41 at Stewart-Haas Racing. Custer became the Xfinity Series’ most improved driver in 2019 recording 7 victories. Custer has a very smooth driving style that is ideal for long run speed and typically performs best at 1.5 mile tracks. Custer has shown the ability to perform well on all surfaces and will step into the #41 car that recorded 11 top 10 finishes in 2019 with Suarez at the wheel. Custer has the talent to perform well but there will be a learning curve as he takes another big step up in the realm of competition.

Denny Hamlin #11: Entering 15th full-time season in Cup Series and on the heels of his best season following a Championship 4 appearance at Homestead. In 2019, Hamlin recorded 4 wins, 19 top 5 finishes, and 24 top 10 finishes which were all career highs. Possibly the best driver in the business on flat surfaces, best tracks are Martinsville (5 wins) and Pocono (5 wins). Also has been very strong on superspeedway tracks since 2014 especially at Daytona. Best tracks statistically are Darlington, Richmond, and Martinsville.

Erik Jones #20: Entering his 4th full-time season in the Cup Series. In 2019, Jones recorded his 2nd career win in the Southern 500 at Darlington and a career high 10 top 5 finishes. In his young career, Jones best tracks, in terms of average finishing position, have been Darlington (4.7), Kentucky (5.3), and surprisingly Watkins Glen (6.3).

Jimmie Johnson #48: Entering final season before retirement which will be his 19th season full-time in the Cup Series. Will go down as one of best of all-time with 7 Cup Championships. Only tracks where he has not won: Watkins Glen, Chicagoland, and Kentucky. Best tracks are Dover (11 wins), Martinsville (9 wins), and Charlotte (8 wins). However, 2019 was the 2nd straight season Johnson failed to record a victory and posted just 3 top 5 finishes. In the last two years, Johnson has rarely shown the ability to contend for victories and was often more valuable as a driver to fade in 2019 which will likely be the case in 2020 barring significant performance changes.

Joey Logano #22: Entering 12th full-time season in the Cup Series and is the 2018 Cup Series Champion. Surprisingly was held to just 2 wins in 2019 at Las Vegas and Michigan. Team Penske’s performance faded during the 2nd half of 2019 which should be considered at the start of 2020. Logano has proven that he can win on any surface. However, he has been best on the superspeedways followed by Michigan (3 wins) and Las Vegas (8.5 average finishing position).

Kevin Harvick #4: Entering 20th full-time season in the Cup Series and is the former 2014 Cup Series Champion. Despite 44 years of age, Harvick still appears to be in his prime recording 4 victories and 15 top 5 finishes in 2019. Harvick’s best track is undoubtedly ISM Raceway (Phoenix) where he holds 9 victories which is the most all-time. Statistically, Harvick’s best tracks are Homestead (6.4), Indianapolis (8.9), and Phoenix (9.2). Harvick has always performed really well on flatter surfaces and tracks that yield significant tire wear.

Kyle Busch #18: Entering 16th full-time season and is now a two-time Cup Series Champion. Busch earned his 2nd Cup Series title in 2019 with a victory in the season finale at Homestead and is likely the best driver in the current era of the sport. Busch is the type of talent that can win on any given weekend. Statistically Busch’s best tracks are Bristol (8 wins), Kentucky (4.7),  and Richmond (6.8). Not known for great superspeedway results and surprisingly struggles at Michigan.

Kyle Larson #42: Entering 7th full-time season in the Cup Series. Larson snapped a long winless drought in 2019 with a victory at Dover (also won the 2019 All-Star Race). Despite enormous potential, Larson’s win percentage remains relatively low with just 6 Cup Series wins on his resume partly due to struggles from Chevrolet teams over the last 2 years. Larson remains one of the most raw talents in the series and often shines at the tracks where most driver input is warranted including Chicagoland, Darlington, Dover, and Homestead.

Kurt Busch #1: Entering 20th full-time season in the Cup Series and the former 2004 Cup Series Champion. The elder Busch has scored 1 victory in each of the past 4 seasons striking gold most recently at Kentucky in 2019. Busch performed really well in the early part of 2019 but struggled during the 2nd half of the season finishing with just 6 top 5 finishes. Best tracks include Bristol (6 wins), Kentucky (10.8), and has recorded 3 victories at Pocono, Atlanta, Loudon, and Michigan. Performance is rather sporadic and not dependent on track type.

Martin Truex Jr #19: Entering 15th full-time season in Cup Series following another Championship 4 appearance in 2019 that resulted in a 2nd straight runner-up finish for the title. Truex recorded 7 wins in 2019 which was the most among all drivers and has battled with Kyle Busch for the most wins over the last 5 seasons combined. Truly one of the top drivers in the sport that is the absolute best at tracks that require long run speed for success. Truex, along with Chase Elliott, are undeniably the two best road course drivers in NASCAR.

Matt DiBenedetto #21: Entering 6th full-time season in Cup Series and will now get an excellent opportunity for the #21 team with Wood Brothers Racing who maintains a manufacturing alliance with Team Penske. DiBenedetto became a fan favorite in 2019 fighting to keep his seat with the #95 team and consistently exceeded expectations including a near huge underdog victory at Bristol. In 2020, DiBenedetto will have the opportunity to continue his career progression with a potentially better team. The 5th year veteran’s best tracks have resided at Daytona and Bristol. However, I will also mention that he is a good road course driver as well.

Ryan Blaney #12: Entering 5th full-time season in the Cup Series. Blaney has recorded 3 career wins with 1 over each of the past 3 seasons. In 2019, Blaney recorded a career best 11 top 5 finishes and has clearly shown his best performances on the 1.5 mile surfaces like Chicagoland and Las Vegas. Blaney has also posted strong results in both appearances at the ROVAL at Charlotte Motor Speedway including a victory in the inaugural event in 2018.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr #37: Entering 8th full-time season in Cup Series. After being let go from his seat at Roush Fenway Racing, Stenhouse will pilot the #37 for JTG Daugherty Racing in 2020. After a breakout season in 2017 with 2 superspeedway wins, Stenhouse has posted just 4 top 5 finishes over the last 2 seasons and that could continue to decrease with worse equipment. Despite the performance decline, Stenhouse remains a live dog any time the Cup Series visits the superspeedway races due to his aggressive driving and ability to stay out in front of the pack.

Ryan Newman #6: Entering 19th full-time season in Cup Series. Despite scoring just 1 victory since 2013, Newman remains competitive despite inferior equipment and posted 14 top 10 finishes in 2019. Despite rarely contending for victories, the veteran still produces quality finishes and in similar style to Kyle Larson; Newman typically shines at the tracks that require the most driver input to be successful.

Ty Dillon #13: Entering 4th full-time season in Cup Series. The younger Dillon has recorded just 1 top 5 finish in his Cup Series career and is often a low-tier caliber driver with a career averaging finishing position of 26th. The best tracks for Dillon where he often exceeds expectations includes Indianapolis, Darlington, and superspeedway venues.

Tyler Reddick #8: Entering 1st full-time season in Cup Series. Reddick won the 2018 and 2019 Xfinity Series Championship highlighted by wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway in both season finales. Expectations for 2020 should be limited due to Richard Childress Racing’s performance trends. However, expect Reddick to exceed expectations at the tracks where driver input makes the most difference. Reddick has similar comparisons to Kyle Larson and his masterful high line at Homestead. As a young aggressive talent, tracks like Chicagoland, Homestead, and Kansas will provide opportunities to showcase Reddick’s talent.

William Byron #24: Entering 3rd full-time season in the Cup Series following his best season to date in 2019 that included 5 top 5 finishes and 13 top 10 finishes. In my opinion, Byron was the most improved driver in 2019 and appears to be on the fast path towards becoming a breakout talent. Chevrolet teams still need to make gains in the realm of performance. If that happens, Byron should start contending for victories and likely often. So far in his young career, Byron has been best on the flat surfaces with clear strengths at places like Pocono, Indianapolis, and Martinsville. I would also consider Byron an extremely underrated superspeedway driver which may yield an opportunity for the youngster’s 1st career victory in 2020.