2021 NASCAR All-Star Race Preview
Date: Sunday June 13th, 8:00PM (EST) |
Location: Texas Motor Speedway
This coming weekend, NASCAR’s Cup Series will host the 37th running of the All-Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway. Sunday’s prestigious non-points paying race will be the 2nd straight All-Star Race held outside of Charlotte where the event was traditionally held from 1987 to 2019. The All-Star Race has been held at Atlanta (1986) and most recently at Bristol (2020). NASCAR has traditionally kept the All-Star Race in close proximity to its Charlotte hub near most racing organization’s headquarters. On Sunday, this will be the first All-Star Race held beyond the east coast as the growing sentiment around this race appears to open the door to the All-Star Race consistently changing venues in the years to come.
For my subscribers, I would like to start off by saying that I will not be releasing official betting picks for this race. I have always steered clear of betting the All-Star Race unless it was just for very casual purposes. There are many reasons why this event does not favor bettors. For example, this Sunday’s event will have 6 different stages, with numerous field inverts, and a full field of drivers with absolutely nothing to lose. Needless to say, those are not advantageous betting conditions and that is why I have traditionally excluded this non-points race from our weekly handicapping picks.
Another reason, which may be less obvious, is that teams and drivers use this race to experiment. With the limited testing and practices in the Cup Series, many teams will be experimenting with new chassis and setup configurations as they look to improve their performance under the 550HP rules package. If you look back to the Coca Cola 600 two weeks ago at Charlotte, Hendrick Motorsports provided the most dominating team performance ever witnessed in the 600. Following that performance, rest assured opposing teams are going to do everything imaginable to find some speed at Texas to gain ground on the Hendrick cars. Therefore, it is not ideal to place bets where teams may deviate from standard performance and in-season trends. With that being said, we are still going to preview Sunday’s All-Star Race to discuss the participants, the format, and provide some high level predictions for those wanting to add some spice to Sunday’s event.
All-Star Open Entry List
For those unfamiliar with the All-Star Race, the All-Star Open is a race held for drivers that have not qualified for the All-Star Race with the purpose to provide opportunities for drivers to “race their way” into the main event. The All-Star Open will feature a 3-stage 50 lap event. The winner of each stage will earn an immediate ticket to the All-Star Race. The opening stage will be 20 laps, followed by another 20 laps in stage 2, and then a final 10 lap stage for the final spot in the All-Star Race. Currently, only 17 drivers are locked into the All-Star Race based on the criteria of having a win in the last year, being a former series champion, or former winner of the All-Star Race. Therefore, the Open will provide 3 additional spots to the 20 car field. The entry list for the All-Star Open is listed below:
| Entry | Car Number | Driver | Team Name | Owner |
|---|
| 1 | 00 | Quin Houff | 8 Ball Chocolate Whiskey Chevrolet | StarCom Racing |
| 2 | 7 | Corey LaJoie | Schluter Systems Chevrolet | Spire Motorsports |
| 3 | 8 | Tyler Reddick | I am Second Chevrolet | Richard Childress Racing |
| 4 | 10 | Aric Almorila | Smithfield Ford | Stewart-Haas Racing |
| 5 | 13 | David Star | MBM Toyota | Motorsports Business Management |
| 6 | 14 | Chase Briscoe | Ford Performance Racing School Ford | Stewart-Haas Racing |
| 7 | 15 | James Davison | Rick Ware Racing Chevrolet | Rick Ware Racing |
| 8 | 17 | Chris Buescher | Fastenal Ford | Roush Fenway Racing |
| 9 | 21 | Matt DiBenedetto | Quick Lane Tire & Auto Center Ford | Wood Brothers Racing |
| 10 | 23 | Bubba Wallace | Door Dash Toyota | 23XI Racing |
| 11 | 33 | Austin Cindric | Pirtek Ford | Team Penske |
| 12 | 38 | Anthony Alfredo | Speedy Cash Ford | Front Row Motorsports |
| 13 | 42 | Ross Chastain | McDonald’s Chevrolet | Chip Ganassi Racing |
| 14 | 43 | Erik Jones | Petty’s Garage Chevrolet | Richard Petty Motorsports |
| 15 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | Kroger Chevrolet | JTG Daugherty Racing |
| 16 | 51 | Cody Ware | Petty Ware Racing Chevrolet | Petty Ware Racing |
| 17 | 52 | Josh Bilicki | Rick Ware Racing Ford | Rick Ware Racing |
| 18 | 53 | Garrett Smithley | Rick Ware Racing Chevrolet | Rick Ware Racing |
| 19 | 66 | Timmy Hill | MBM Toyota | Motorsports Business Management |
| 20 | 77 | Justin Haley | Fraternal Order of Eagles Chevrolet | Spire Motorsports |
| 21 | 78 | BJ McLeod | Surface Sunscreen Ford | Live Fast Motorsports |
| 22 | 99 | Daniel Suarez | CommScope Chevrolet | TrackHouse Racing |
All-Star Race Entry List
As mentioned above, eligibility for the All-Star Race requires drivers to have either earned a victory in the last year, been a former Cup Series champion, or former winner of the All-Star Race. Currently, just 17 drivers meet the criteria and are locked into Sunday’s All-Star Race. Those drivers are as follows:
| Entry | Car Number | Driver | Team Name | Owner |
|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kurt Busch | GearWrench Chevrolet | Chip Ganassi Racing |
| 2 | 2 | Brad Keselowski | Discount Tire Ford | Team Penske |
| 3 | 3 | Austin Dillon | Andy’s Frozen Custard Chevrolet | Richard Childress Racing |
| 4 | 4 | Kevin Harvick | Busch Light Ford | Stewart-Haas Racing |
| 5 | 5 | Kyle Larson | Hendrickcars.com Chevrolet | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 6 | 6 | Ryan Newman | Wyndham Rewards Ford | Roush Fenway Racing |
| 7 | 9 | Chase Elliott | NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 8 | 11 | Denny Hamlin | FedEx Office Toyota | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 9 | 12 | Ryan Blaney | Menards/Wrangler Ford | Team Penske |
| 10 | 18 | Kyle Busch | M&Ms Summering Toyota | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 11 | 19 | Martin Truex Jr | Bass Pro Toyota | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 12 | 20 | Christopher Bell | Craftsman Toyota | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 13 | 22 | Joey Logano | Shell Pennzoil Ford | Team Penske |
| 14 | 24 | William Byron | Axalta Chevrolet | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 15 | 34 | Michael McDowell | Love’s Travel Stops Ford | Front Row Motorsports |
| 16 | 41 | Cole Custer | HaasTooling.com Ford | Stewart-Haas Racing |
| 17 | 88 | Alex Bowman | Ally Chevrolet | Hendrick Motorsports |
All-Star Race Format
Perhaps the most interesting aspect to this Sunday’s All-Star Race is the relatively complex format that NASCAR has unveiled. I say complex because it’s probably the most unpredictable format in the race’s illustrious history. The entire race will be 100 laps but broken into 6 rounds. The opening 4 rounds will feature 15 lap shootouts. In round 5, the length will be extended to 30 laps which leaves a final 10 lap shootout in the final round. Here is the kicker or kickers, the field will be inverted based on a random draw in both stages 2 and 4. For stage 3, the entire field will be inverted. For stage 5, the field will be lined up by the cumulative (best average finish) total of finishes from the opening 4 stages. Once the 5th stage begins, there will not be any more inverts as the final two stages will be raced to completion.
Obviously the format is pretty hard to follow, especially on paper. I will say that while I think it is a little too complicated, I also see what NASCAR is trying to accomplish. Instead of just inverting the field or randomly inverting the field which has both been done in prior All-Star races, NASCAR is having some type of invert for the 3 consecutive stages (2-4) with an incentive for drivers to race towards the front. Since stage 5 will consist of best finishing averages, drivers must attempt to race forward and get the best finish in each stage. Ultimately, those final stages will put drivers in the best position to go after the 1 million dollar prize. NASCAR’s format will be confusing at times but ultimately is designed to produce hard charging racing. Only time will tell if that effort pays off. Personally, I just wish they would give drivers more horsepower to make passing more sustainable but that is a completely different topic.
All Star Open Predictions
If you look at the entries for the All-Star Open, there is no clear favorite like we have seen in previous years. The one glaring obvious factor about the entry list for the Open is the experience among these drivers. Every driver on this list has either only been in the Cup Series for 1-2 years or has recently changed teams in that same time frame. We don’t have many established drivers or teams in the Open. I would not be surprised if the Open produces more fireworks than the eventual All-Star Race due to the amount of competitors that are relatively equal in performance and the number of drivers that desperately want to make it into the main event.
From an expectations standpoint, Tyler Reddick would be my pick to win the Open or at least win one of the opening stages. While I am thinking about stages in the Open, be very careful betting this event. The winner of the Open is considered the driver that wins the final stage. Often the best driver/car wins one of the opening stages and immediately does a stage right exit to start preparations for the All-Star Race. It is one of those weird formats that heavily favors the books because bettors do not understand the format or grading basis for the picks. Outside of Reddick who will likely be the popular choice, don’t overlook Chris Buescher who I believe will be the best betting option based on value. Buescher actually leads all Open drivers with an 85.48 driver rating on the 1.5 mile venues this season and is on the heels of an 8th place finish in the Coca Cola 600 just two weeks ago at Charlotte which is a sister track to Texas.
All-Star Open Targets: Tyler Reddick and Chris Buescher
All-Star Race Predictions
Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott have won the last two All-Star Races. Coincidence? Not at all. Larson has become the new Alpha driver in the Cup Series with Hendrick Motorsports and has won back to back races at Charlotte and Sonoma. I mentioned earlier that the Hendrick Motorsports cars have shown tremendous muscle at the 1.5 mile venues winning 3 of the 5 races this season. While Larson appears to be in absolutely dominant form, Chase Elliott and the #9 team are gaining ground. The reigning Cup Series champion had a somewhat slow start to the season but has come alive in recent weeks. Following the win at Circuit of the Americas, Elliott has finished runner-up to Larson in each of the last two weeks. For those keeping track, Larson and Elliott have finished 1-2 in each of the last 3 races. Needless to say, the stage is set for the two best drivers in the sport to continue their fight for prominence. Obviously Larson is the undeniable first choice at the moment but perhaps the sharp value lies with Elliott at double the odds.
Unfortunately, bettors are not going to find much value in either Larson or Elliott in this race or in the weeks to come. More importantly to note, this new All-Star format is designed to provoke potential chaos. With the number of inverts, restarts, and close racing in this event, overall betting favorites are far riskier than usual. If I want to look at drivers that provide more betting value, I would put Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin in that 2nd tier pivot position. Both Busch and Hamlin have performed well on the 1.5 mile venues this season. Perhaps with the recent dominance of Larson and Elliott, we can steal some value on the really strong duo of Hamlin/Busch. Hamlin is actually approaching the 12-1 odds range which is the best value we have seen on the #11 team in quite some time.
For deep long shots, may I throw out Austin Dillon or Tyler Reddick as lottery picks? Reddick has to get into the show through the Open which is an obstacle. However, both Richard Childress Racing cars have shown really good speed in recent weeks. Both Dillon and Reddick are strong talents for the 1.5 mile venues and have sneaky good averages this season at those venues. Currently, Dillon is a 30-1 lottery pick for the All-Star win. The only drivers getting deeper odds than Dillon are the likes of Cole Custer, Ryan Newman, and Michael McDowell who honestly should be lucky just to be in the show. In this smaller field, I like Dillon’s value as a dart play and really like the +700 Top 3 bet as a potential prop. Lastly if Reddick is able to make the All-Star Race as I expect, be sure to check odds before the start of the All-Star as you may be able to steal some value there as well.
All-Star Targets: Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin
