2023 Daytona 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday February 19th, 2023. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Daytona International Speedway
TV: FOX

On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to the fabled high-banks of Daytona International Speedway for the 65th running of the Great American Race to kick off the 2023 season. A year ago the Cup Series entered the year with a laundry list of unknowns surrounding the Next Gen Car. After watching a record-breaking 19 drivers capture wins during the 2022 campaign and witnessing a monumental shift in the Cup Series which leveled the playing field among the top teams and organizations, it is safe to say that NASCAR’s top division is competitive as ever. With the combination of unprecedented parity in the performance department combined with the wild-card that is superspeedway racing, Sunday’s Daytona 500 will likely be as wild and chaotic as you would expect with 40 drivers feeling they have a legitimate opportunity to win the biggest prize in motorsports!

If we look back at last year’s races at Daytona, both events produced relatively surprise winners. Austin Cindric won the Daytona 500 last February in his rookie debut in a race that was seemingly dominated by the Ford drivers. Following Cindric’s upset win in the 500, Austin Dillon delivered another underdog style victory in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 in August, in a race where the Chevrolet teams seemed to have an edge. In both of those races, bettors cashed winning tickets ranging from 25-1 to 30-1 depending on where you place your bets. Needless to say, both winners would have provided nice paydays regardless of bet size. However, I bring up both of those races for a different reason because both events unfolded differently from one another in the performance department.

Every year the season kicks off at Daytona, we analyze Speedweeks with a microscope to identify any manufacturers or teams that have seemingly brought an edge into the new season. Last year, the Ford manufacturers definitely held the edge throughout Speedweeks and we saw that speed replicated in the Daytona 500. This year, we have witnessed another full week of racing with the Bluegreen Vacation Duels, multiple practices, and qualifying sessions. With all those on-track activities behind us, I’m not sure I can confidently say anyone has a true “advantage” going into Sunday like some could have argued a year ago. The opening duel on Thursday was a strategy disaster that caused the Chevrolet teams to lose the lead draft. The 2nd duel was a better overall race but I did not see any performance outliers that would impact our betting focus this week. The Chevrolet teams have shown the best single car speed and perhaps speed in the smaller drafting groups. However, I don’t think it is enough of a margin to lead to any advantages on Sunday when all 40 cars are on the track at the same time. Instead, I think this will be your typical superspeedway event where survival will be equally as important as overall speed.

Handicapping Strategy

If you are new to my weekly race picks or simply need a reminder, I would never lead bettors into thinking these superspeedway races favor bettors from a probability standpoint. Anyone trying to sell you “guarantees” at the superspeedways should be burned at the stake because these races are truly unpredictable. Obviously, there are drivers that perform better at this style of racing and put themselves in positions for winning opportunities more than others. However when you analyze these races from a singularity betting standpoint, this is a high-risk event that can be described as luck over skill. In fact, I would not discourage true sharps from avoiding superspeedway races all together because they do not produce the handicapping edge that we desire like most traditional ovals, especially with the Next Gen Car.

Personally, I have always attacked these events with a low-risk approach. Betting odds for superspeedway can be very generous due to the unpredictability described above. If you are lucky enough to hit a huge winner in these events like I have done occasionally throughout my career, it can nearly make a season in itself. Therefore, I like to put together a betting card that is focused around drivers that typically find the front of the field at the superspeedways and make selections with “ROI” at the forefront of our strategy. Usually, we can take more driver selections at the superspeedways because odds allow for variance. Therefore, we will likely attack this Sunday’s Daytona 500 with another sprinkle approach with several drivers that provide the best betting value and have shown a history of putting themselves in position for wins at these types of events!

Next Gen Car Loop Data – Superspeedways

With a year of superspeedway racing in the books with the Next Gen Car, I provided a compilation of the loop data results from the last 5 superspeedway events in 2022 which are shown below. I use loop data often to showcase recent trends, track trends, or in-season performance trends at similar venues. Each track is different and how you use the loop data is determined by the style of racing that each track produces. As stated above, superspeedway racing cannot be predicted. Instead, bettors have to rely on the trends that show the drivers that are usually racing at the front of the field and/or seem to be around at the end. As a result, the averages shown below should provide a solid baseline of expectations based on how drivers performed last season at the superspeedways with the Next Gen Car. By no means does these stats mean they will be replicated but we should consider them in the grand scheme of our handicapping considerations.

*Also please note that these 5 race loop data averages are now updated weekly for all track types, including the last 5 races outright and this information is available to everyone! This information is listed under the “Dynamic Averages” tab on the home page.

*Data reflects last 5 superspeedway races*

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos	Fast Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Chase Elliott	111.0	10.6	8.8	8.4	18	166	1098
William Byron	100.3	11.8	18.4	11.6	23	192	972
Ross Chastain	97.6	9.2	8.4	13.4	30	111	1062
Erik Jones	96.5	17.4	9.4	10.2	23	80	1109
Ryan Blaney	91.8	13.0	10.0	12.6	20	71	1115
Alex Bowman	84.7	14.0	16.3	15.0	28	11	829
Denny Hamlin	83.4	12.0	20.4	13.4	18	45	984
Daniel Suarez	80.4	8.4	14.6	15.4	24	45	1002
Martin Truex Jr	78.8	14.4	11.6	15.8	30	34	1121
Aric Almirola	78.8	17.2	15.6	14.4	33	42	1099
Joey Logano	78.3	9.4	21.2	16.8	23	27	1012
Christopher Bell	77.7	9.8	23.4	15.4	19	23	990
Kyle Busch	76.5	16.6	17.2	16.6	27	34	967
Justin Haley	75.7	19.2	14.6	16.0	27	9	1098
Kevin Harvick	75.5	14.6	18.4	14.6	21	11	1099
Bubba Wallace	74.2	23.4	14.2	16.0	38	20	1120
Tyler Reddick	72.0	6.6	25.2	19.6	12	42	793
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	71.0	23.8	27.2	19.6	26	24	783
Kyle Larson	70.2	9.7	20.4	18.2	18	41	862
Austin Dillon	65.2	19.6	17.2	22.2	19	10	727
Corey LaJoie	65.1	31.8	21.0	21.4	22	27	954
Austin Cindric	64.6	14.0	13.6	19.4	28	20	996
Michael McDowell	64.4	20.0	16.4	22.6	33	2	1058
Chase Briscoe	59.2	12.6	21.8	21.8	29	5	953
Harrison Burton	56.5	25.4	24.8	22.4	12	9	833
Brad Keselowski	54.7	22.4	22.4	22.0	27	0	991
Chris Buescher	52.2	17.2	26.0	23.4	17	2	813
Noah Gragson	50.0	26.8	23.0	26.6	26	0	650
Ty Dillon	46.8	23.2	27.6	25.2	18	1	696
Ty Gibbs	39.2	16.5	25.0	31.0	2	0	181
B.J. McLeod	38.3	35.4	24.2	28.8	20	6	916

Betting Targets

While I have tried my hardest not to simply use observations from this week alone to guide my betting picks this week, I would be lying if I didn’t state that the Team Penske cars have “appeared” to be the best cars in the draft. Unfortunately, we are not going to get much betting value on Ryan Blaney or Joey Logano due to their superspeedway success over the last several years nor are we going to get extreme value on Cindric following last year’s win. However, I would not be surprised if Team Penske is tough to beat again this Sunday. In terms of true betting targets, I like Kyle Busch among the overall favorites. I have been extremely impressed with Busch in a few on-track showings at the Coliseum and throughout Speedweeks since transitioning to Richard Childress Racing. Busch was wrecked while leading in Thursday night’s duel races and while the team will have to go to a backup car, I think the #8 team has shown tremendous speed and Busch has looked great behind the wheel. Surprisingly, Busch is getting 15-1 odds which is pretty generous for someone that I would argue deserves to be among the outright favorites.

Obviously we could make arguments for any driver in the field at a superspeedway race, especially those drivers in the category of the “favorites.” Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Chase Elliott have the best pedigrees at the superspeedways in the last few years. I personally think the Team Penske cars have been strong so I would not discourage anyone from mixing-in any of those drivers if your betting card will allow it. However, remember these races are primarily about seeking betting value because things will get chaotic and attrition will be a factor. As I look for drivers with better “value,” I think guys like Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, and Martin Truex just scream value in the 25-1 to 30-1 odds range. Bell was the hottest driver in the sport at the end of 2022 and drove a heck of a race in the opening duel on Thursday. Reddick has always performed much better than his finishing results would indicate at the superspeedways and Truex has more stage wins than any other driver over the last two years despite never winning a superspeedway event.

If you are looking for even deeper options that could produce lottery style payouts, Ty Gibbs, Noah Gragson, and Corey LaJoie are among a group of drivers that have much higher ceilings than betting odds suggest. Gibbs and Gragson are both rookies this season. However, both drivers were able to race a significant amount of races last season in the Cup Series in replacement roles. Gibbs raced the entire 2nd half of the season for Kurt Busch who was knocked out of his ride with bad concussion symptoms and likewise Gragson filled in for Alex Bowman during the latter stretch of races for similar reasons. So I would not label either of these drivers as “typical” rookies. More importantly, both Gragson and Gibbs have serious skills and the aggressiveness to make things happen if they have an opportunity in the closing laps. At 50-1 odds or greater, both drivers deserve consideration even if it’s just for a small amount. Likewise, Corey LaJoie is currently showing a 100-1 price tag. LaJoie nearly won the Atlanta superspeedway race last year and has shown the ability to mix things up at the front of the field in these races. While it’s not a probable play, the potential is there for LaJoie at odds being offered.

Draftkings Daytona 500 Optimal Lineup

Each week I provide an “optimal” lineup for Draftkings based on my handicapping expectations. Obviously the best way to tackle Draftkings is with numerous lineups and linear variances as opposed to a single lineup submission. While my focus remains on betting, I did want to make a note for fantasy players this week. At the superspeedways, I have been a far more successful fantasy player by submitting lineups with a lot of salary left on the table. The place-differential points is everything at the superspeedways because you rarely have many drivers earn a substantial amount of dominator (laps led/fastest laps) points. As a result, do not be afraid to submit lineups where the focus is solely around place-differential potential even if that means leaving salary on the table or opting for less popular drivers. Our single optimal lineups are more advantageous at traditional ovals. At these superspeedways, it is really about variance and optimizing the scoring structure if you are trying to profit!

2023 Daytona 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Ryan Blaney +1200 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +1500 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +2000 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +2500 (.5 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +3000 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +3500 (.5 unit)
Noah Gragson +6000 (.25 unit)
Corey LaJoie +10000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Ty Gibbs +800 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Corey LaJoie +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Drivers to lead a lap over 13.5 (-115) (3 units)