2025 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday July 20th, 2025. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Dover International Speedway
TV: TNT

After competing at 3 different road course venues over the last 4 races, NASCAR’s Cup Series will return to traditional oval style racing over the next 3 weeks beginning with this Sunday’s running of the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover International Speedway. For Cup Series drivers and championship hopefuls, there are just six races remaining before the playoffs begin at Darlington. As things currently stand, there are only 4 playoff positions that remain open due to the fact the Cup Series has produced 12 different winners this season. Therefore, time is running out for drivers like Tyler Reddick, Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, Bubba Wallace, and many others that need a victory to lock-in their playoff positions.

Of course the drivers that I mentioned above can still advance into the playoffs on points but nobody knows how many new winners we will have over the next 6 races which means nobody knows how many positions will even be available on points. As a result, I am expecting drivers and teams to get real aggressive over the next few weeks especially on strategy as they look to manufacture winning opportunities. Fortunately for bettors, the Monster Mile rarely produces circumstances where strategy comes into play. Lap times are extremely fast around Dover and track position is very important. As a result, most teams are willing to choose track position over pitting in most late race situations.

Therefore, we can approach Sunday’s race at Dover with relative optimism that things will unfold without a lot of strategy impacts. Unfortunately, bettors will also go into Sunday’s Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 relatively blind because Mother Nature wiped out on-track activities on Saturday. The Cup Series was scheduled for back to back practice and qualifying sessions on Saturday but rain cancelled both sessions. As a result, drivers and teams will take their first laps of the race weekend when the green flag waves on Sunday without any chance to evaluate setups which makes things a bit more tricky from a handicapping perspective!

Dover – Cup Notes

Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 3 wins at Dover.
Denny Hamlin (2), Chase Elliott (2), Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, and Alex Bowman are former winners at Dover.
Chase Elliott has finished in the top 5 in 10 of 14 career starts at Dover.
Kyle Larson has the best average finishing position (8.2) among active drivers at Dover. *Larson has finished in the top 5 in 50% (8 of 16) of his starts at Dover.
Alex Bowman has finished in the Top 5 in 5 of his last 7 starts at Dover.
Ross Chastain has finished in the Top 3 in 2 of his last 3 starts at Dover.
Cole Custer has finished in the Top 10 in 2 of 4 career starts at Dover.
Josh Berry finished 10th in his only career start at Dover last year.
Denny Hamlin (112.8), Ross Chastain (109.9), Alex Bowman (104.6), Chase Elliott (104.3), and Kyle Busch (102.6) are the only drivers with a +100 average driver rating in the Next Gen Car at Dover.
Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, and Chris Buescher are the only drivers to finish in the Top 10 in all 3 races at Dover in the Next Gen Car.
There have been 7 cautions or more in 4 of the last 5 races at Dover.
The eventual race winner has started outside the Top 10 in 3 of the last 5 races at Dover.

Dynamic Averages

In reality, Dover is classified as a “short track” because it is just 1 mile in length. However from a handicapping perspective, it is almost a perfect hybrid from a short track to a 1.5 mile intermediate sized track. In fact, I would argue that Dover races more like an intermediate style track from the driver’s seat yet require a lot of short-track characteristics in the setup. For those reasons, I like to look at recent performance trends throughout the seasons on the short tracks like Bristol and Phoenix while also paying close attention to the performances on the intermediate layouts.

If we simply compare our dynamic averages for the short tracks and intermediate layouts, Kyle Larson’s name emerges as the top driver in both categories. In recent weeks, Larson’s performance has dwindled mainly due to the schedule and types of tracks the Cup Series has visited. However, Sunday’s return to Dover is an excellent spot for Larson to jump back to dominant form. Aside from Larson, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, and Chase Elliott are among the other drivers that are performing well on both metrics. Unsurprisingly, those drivers have been among the best at Dover in recent years. Needless to say, all of those metrics correlate with each other and will be part of how we handicap this race without any on-track observations.

Betting Targets

Denny Hamlin likely deserves the top spot in our handicapping rankings going into Sunday simply because he has been phenomenal at Dover in the Next Gen Car. Hamlin has finished no worse than 6th in the last 6 stages at Dover and appears to be performing at a high level unlike Larson who has fallen off a bit in the last few weeks. Despite those facts, I believe Chase Elliott is just as deserving of the outright favorite spot as anyone. Elliott is a two-time winner at the Monster Mile and has finished in the top 5 in 10 of 14 career starts. In the Next Gen Car, Elliott’s performances at Dover have not regressed and he will have the opportunity to start tomorrow’s race with the best track position from the pole spot. Unless the #9 team misses the setup, I like Elliott’s chances to get the job done on Sunday with much better odds than some of the other favorites.

Behind Elliott, betting odds are just somewhat disgraceful with so many drivers like Chase Briscoe who are just grossly overvalued for no reason at all. Despite those facts, William Byron has performed really well at Dover despite not always getting the finishes to show for it. I believe Byron has been one of the best at these styles of tracks throughout the year and could be another excellent pivot option for those looking for better value than the outright favorites. Deeper into the field, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, and Kyle Busch are among my favorite drivers in H2H formats. All of those drivers have a high likelihood of outrunning their current betting odds. Bowman may have the most sharp value out of the group and is one of my favorite H2H targets on Sunday. For bigger dark horses, Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Erik Jones are some names starting at the back of the field that have higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. Both drivers are ideal fantasy targets but could produce some dividends in prop bet formats as well.

2025 Draftkings Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Optimal Lineup

2025 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Race Picks

*FINAL* Chase Elliott +750 (1 unit)
William Byron +1000 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain + 1600 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

William Byron -110 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Christopher Bell -110 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Kyle Busch -130 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Brad Keselowski +700 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)
Most laps led by any driver under 144.5 (-115)(2 units)*Caesars
Grid position of race winner over 12.5 (-115)(2 units)*Caesars