2025 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday October 5th, 2025. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL
TV: USA

Last week, Chase Elliott delivered one of the most exciting wins of the season at Kansas Speedway. Elliott was among the few drivers that took 4 tires prior to a late overtime finish. However, it was the fact that Toyota drivers Bubba Wallace, Christopher Bell, and Denny Hamlin all made contact at different points of the final run to the checkers which allowed Elliott to steal the victory. As a result, Elliott joins Ryan Blaney as the two drivers that have already locked their positions into the Round of 8 in the Cup Series playoffs. On Sunday, the playoff battle heats up in an elimination race when the green flag waves for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway!

As things currently stand, Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick, and Austin Cindric are among the drivers that are currently below the cutoff line. Cindric and Reddick are in must-win situations to keep their championship hopes alive. Meanwhile, Wallace and Chastain could potentially gain enough points to advance but they would need to acquire an abundance of points and/or hope that some of the drivers like Joey Logano and Chase Briscoe (right above the cutoff line) have trouble. The good news for Tyler Reddick fans is that the driver of the #45 won the pole for Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400. Reddick edged out Shane Van Gisbergen (SVG) with a fast lap of 95.510mph to take the top spot in qualifying.

Despite Reddick’s pole win, SVG remains the overwhelming betting favorite going into Sunday. SVG has won the last 4 road course races this season in the Cup Series with the majority of those victories coming by a wide margin in dominating fashion. The New Zealander has failed to win at the ROVAL despite prior starts in both the Xfinity and Cup Series. However, I believe that track conditions and the Goodyear tire conditions are likely going to play into SVG’s strengths going into race day. In practice, we saw a great deal of tire wear and all drivers were complaining that the tire failed to yield any grip. As a result, that will likely play into the hands of SVG who has been best this season on the road courses especially the venues that produce significant tire wear. With that being said, we will still discuss our best path to turning a profit and additional drivers that may be worthy of betting consideration!

ROVAL – Cup Notes

Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson are tied with the most wins (2) at the ROVAL.
Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, and AJ Allmendinger are also former winners at the ROVAL.
Kyle Busch has finished 4th or better in 3 of the last 4 races at the ROVAL.
Chase Elliott has the best average finishing position (7.7) among all drivers with multiple starts at the ROVAL.
William Byron has finished 6th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at the ROVAL.
SVG finished 7th in his first career start at the ROVAL last year.
Chris Buescher has finished 7th or better in 3 of the last 4 races at the ROVAL.
AJ Allmendinger has finished 7th or better in 4 of 5 career starts at the ROVAL.
Christopher Bell has finished 8th or better in 3 of the last 4 races at the ROVAL.
Joey Logano has finished 8th or better in 4 of the last 5 races at the ROVAL.
Alex Bowman has finished in the Top 10 in 5 of 6 career starts at the ROVAL.
Tyler Reddick has finished 12th or better in all 5 career starts at the ROVAL.
Michael McDowell’s best finish is 12th in 6 career starts at the ROVAL.
Ross Chastain has just one (1) Top 20 finish in 6 career starts at the ROVAL.
Daniel Suarez has just one (1) Top 20 finish in 6 career starts at the ROVAL.
AJ Allmendinger (125.1), Christopher Bell (104.9), Tyler Reddick (104.5), Chase Elliott (104.1), and William Byron (103.6) are the only drivers with a 100+ average driver rating through 3 starts at the ROVAL in the Next Gen Car.
The eventual race winner has started from the Top 10 in 6 of 7 races at the ROVAL.
Chevrolet drivers have won 5 of 7 races at the ROVAL.
There have been at least 7 cautions in 5 of 7 races at the ROVAL.

Dynamic Averages

In an attempt to avoid over-explanations, I will just keep it simple and state that our dynamic averages at the road courses is an important handicapping tool this week. These averages reflect performance trends over the last 5 races at road courses this season and also include several road course races throughout the summer months. Based on the tire and track conditions going into Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400, I would pay even closer attention to these dynamic metrics for handicapping purposes. Specifically, bettors should note some of the struggles from big names like Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson while not overlooking impressive metrics from Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe!

Practice Observations

To be fair, I would take practice observations with a grain of salt. After the first group went on the track and everyone saw how everyone was fighting grip, I felt like a bunch of teams really backed down the intensity level. With that being said, AJ Allmendinger posted the fastest lap of the session with a speed of 94.478mph. Allmendinger edged out Ty Gibbs for the fastest time while Daniel Suarez, Kyle Busch, and Zane Smith were among the fastest on single lap speed. All of those drivers were in the first group in practice which had more favorable track conditions.

In terms of consistency and potential race speed, SVG obviously had really solid long run speed. Ty Gibbs, AJ Allmendinger, Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell were all really solid as well and displayed potential race winning speed. While there were not many other noteworthy topics, I would mention that all of the Team Penske cars appeared to struggle on the speed charts. Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney have historically been very strong at the ROVAL. However, the Fords in general did not look great and perhaps that explains the Team Penske struggles overall.

Betting Targets

Obviously, SVG is the favorite to win on Sunday by a relatively wide margin. I already have some exposure to SVG stemming from a parlay that originated with the truck race on Friday. I would not blame anyone for wanting to add additional exposure to SVG simply because I expect him to pull away from the field shortly after the green flag waves. With that being said, I would not rule out upset possibilities especially if we get a few late race cautions because tire strategy could be important. If that happens, Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs are the drivers that I believe have the best shot to steal the win away from SVG. Both Bell and Gibbs are really strong road course talents and have also been strong at the ROVAL throughout their career. Based on the slick conditions, I think that helps Bell as well and the #20 can be targeted in all formats.

While I have not been interested in backing Kyle Larson in recent weeks due mainly to performance momentum, Larson looked really good in practice and has historically been very strong at the ROVAL. I mention that fact because while I am not putting any exposure to Larson, I think he is in-line for a strong performance. If we look deeper into the field, AJ Allmendinger and Chase Briscoe are excellent dark horse options. Allmendinger has been absolutely terrific at the ROVAL throughout his career which includes 4 straight Xfinity Series wins and another Cup Series victory in 2023. Meanwhile, Briscoe is a very underrated road course talent and is popping in the #3 spot in our dynamic averages. As a result, I believe Allmendinger and Briscoe are ideal H2H targets and may be worth consideration for the outright victory as well.

If you are looking for fantasy racing targets, Kyle Busch and Alex Bowman are a pair of names that warrant high exposure. Busch has an excellent resume at the ROVAL which includes finishes of 4th or better in 3 of the last 4 races. More importantly, Busch was also fast in Saturday’s practice despite a poor qualifying effort. Likewise, Bowman is another driver that qualified poorly on Saturday but has a high likelihood of moving forward in a significant way. Bowman has been really strong at the ROVAL and has a lot of place/differential upside. Austin Dillon and Erik Jones are also considerable fantasy options simply based on their starting positions. For deep prop bet targets, Bubba Wallace and Austin Dillon are among the drivers getting more than 100-1 betting odds. Both drivers have much higher upside than current betting odds suggest and provide high-yield targets in prop bet formats.