Late Saturday, NASCAR’s Cup Series will go door to door at the “World’s Fastest Half-Mile” with the running of the infamous Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. While the Bristol night race is among the more prestigious races on the schedule, Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race will also serve as an elimination race in the opening Round of 16 of the Cup Series playoffs. Thus far, Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin are the only drivers that have locked themselves into the Round of 12 due to their wins at Darlington and Gateway. More importantly, some of NASCAR’s biggest names are in desperate need of a strong performance on Saturday to keep their championship hopes alive!
As many are aware, Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race will be the 2nd race this season at Bristol Motor Speedway. Back in the spring, Kyle Larson captured his 2nd straight victory at Bristol. Larson dominated the Bristol night race last year by leading 462 of 500 laps en route to victory. In the spring earlier this year, Larson was just as dominant again and led 411 of 500 laps in his encore performance. In total, Larson has won 3 of the last 6 races at Bristol and enters the weekend as the heavy betting favorite once again despite the fact the #5 team has struggled in recent weeks. If Larson is able to turn things around and get another victory, it could be the boost the #5 team needs to get back into championship form.
With that being said, the Toyota teams have been very strong in recent weeks and roll into Thunder Valley with a ton of momentum. Last week’s winner Denny Hamlin is another driver that has been very strong at Bristol throughout his career. In fact, Hamlin has won 2 of the last 4 races at Bristol along with Larson. As a result, we would have to consider Hamlin another strong threat for Saturday’s checkered flag. Both Larson and Hamlin qualified in the top 3 rows on Friday. However, A.J Allmendinger was the driver that seemingly stole the spotlight. Allmendinger earned his first career pole at Bristol with a fast lap of 126.930mph and will lead the field to the green flag for just the 5th time in his tenured career.
As stated in our earlier previews this week, Bristol Motor Speedway requires a unique skill set to make fast lap times. Drivers will consistently fight loose conditions on corner exit and will have the opportunity to search for grip throughout the evening as the track transitions into the late hours. As a result, we typically see the drivers with the best car control emerge at the front of the field at Bristol which is why the former winners list is compiled of names like Larson, Hamlin, and Logano. In fact, I would point out the fact that there are only 6 active drivers that have won at Bristol and 5 of those drivers have multiple victories. For that reason, we should expect the best of the best at the front of the field. With that being stated, we cannot completely rule out the possibility of a first-time Bristol winner just as we saw in 2022 with Chris Buescher. In order to identify potential dark horses at breakout drivers, we must look at recent performance (momentum) and evaluate the drivers that meet the skill set requirements that could parlay those factors into a breakout victory!
I am going to keep practice observations relatively brief because it seems they are becoming less and less important in the Next Gen Car. With that being said, perhaps the takeaways we can take from practice is the drivers that stood out vs. the drivers that appeared to be “off” in terms of speed. Based on Friday’s practice, it definitely appeared that Ryan Blaney was among the standouts. Despite being in the slower group (2) with the rest of the playoff drivers, Blaney posted an identical lap to Justin Haley which tied for the fastest single lap speed at 125.354mph. More importantly, Blaney was very fast in the consecutive lap averages categories and concluded Friday’s session by qualifying on the outside pole. Therefore, Blaney appears to be among the fastest cars thus far this weekend.
While Justin Haley and AJ Allmendinger were some of the surprise stories from the first session, I would call out the fact that Ty Gibbs and Bubba Wallace were some surprise stories from the 2nd session. Both Gibbs and Wallace appeared really solid on speed and seemed to get better deeper into the session. Aside from those names, there were a ton of drivers that were within close proximity of each other which likely means track position will be the name of the game yet again on Saturday. Hamlin, Bell, and many of the Toyotas appeared solid in terms of speed. Meanwhile, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and the majority of the Hendrick Motorsports cars were among the group of drivers that did not show impressive speed during Friday’s sessions. Again, I would not overreact to practice speeds but those are the observations that were witnessed during Friday’s sessions.
While I realize Kyle Larson is arguably the best driver at Bristol Motor Speedway in today’s Cup Series and he is definitely capable of adding another win to his resume on Saturday, I cannot justify Larson at near 2-1 odds based on how the #5 team has performed in recent weeks. Larson has failed to post a single Top 5 finish since Indianapolis in June and while Bristol will definitely play into his strengths; I simply cannot justify the number that Larson is getting from odds makers. Behind Larson, I believe more legitimate arguments can be made for Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin as the top two betting threats going into Saturday night. I have spoken about Hamlin throughout this preview but Ryan Blaney has been just as fast in recent weeks despite not always getting the finishes to show for it. Either way, I believe Blaney and Hamlin are the legitimate favorites.
Behind the heavy favorites, I really like the value surrounding the Toyotas of Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs, and Chase Briscoe. All 3 of those drivers have performed well at Bristol in recent races. Briscoe is arguably performing better than anyone in the Cup Series at the moment. Bell remains one of the best short track talents in the sport and is seemingly due for a win at Bristol based on past metrics. Meanwhile, Bristol has been one of Gibbs best tracks in his young career. Gibbs actually has the 4th best average driver rating at Bristol in the Next Gen Car behind Larson, Hamlin, and Bell. Therefore, I really like the chances for Gibbs to contend on Saturday. Behind the Toyotas, I am less confident in potential dark horses but would have to call out the fact that Chase Elliott always seems to run well at Bristol. At 20-1 odds, Elliott is a betting consideration in all formats. If we are looking for drivers getting huge numbers in terms of betting odds, Ryan Preece and Michael McDowell are among the deep dark horses that have higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. Both Preece and McDowell have been solid at Bristol in the Next Gen Car and can be considered fliers in prop/fantasy style formats!
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