2025 Cook Out Southern 500 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday August 31st, 2025. 6:00PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: USA

The opening race in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs will take center stage on Sunday, under the lights, at Darlington Raceway for the running of the prestigious Cook Out Southern 500. Back in April, Denny Hamlin earned his 5th career victory at Darlington by winning the GoodYear 400. Hamlin is the only active driver in the Cup Series with more than two victories at Darlington and is widely considered the best driver at the track that holds the nickname “Too Tough To Tame.” On Saturday, Hamlin strengthened that argument by winning the pole for the Southern 500 and that means the #11 car will have the opportunity to lead the field to the green with another good shot to add another Darlington trophy to his resume.

While Hamlin has swelled to a big outright favorite, we know that winning at Darlington can be very tricky. This track will test drivers’ skills and patience throughout 500 miles on Sunday. The low-grip surface conditions make it difficult to find stability and grip. Not to mention, the racing surface also creates enormous tire wear that will help cause teams to put a heavy emphasis on strategy and long-run speed. From a betting perspective, these difficult racing conditions typically yield to the drivers that have the best car control and the drivers that are able to manage their tires. That formula is often evident in historical averages and track history. As a result, our handicapping focus this week will be centered around how drivers have performed at Darlington in the Next Gen Car and other similar tracks.

Due to the fact that Darlington will challenge a driver in many different ways, we typically see the better outright driving talents emerge at the front of the field. That is the reason that the names among the winners list at Darlington are usually among the best outright talents in the sport. From a handicapping perspective, sometimes we can lose sight of the difficulty at Darlington. In fact, I often find that starting positions, practice speeds, and other recency bias are often misleading handicapping angles. One of my biggest rules for H2H match-ups at Darlington is making sure that we are on the side of the more talented driver. If we are fading a driver that simply looked bad in practice or in recent events, we must make sure that we are also not fading a more talented opponent. As long as we don’t break those rules, we can usually identify some sharp mismatches in H2H formats!

Darlington – Cup Notes

Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 5 career wins at Darlington.
Erik Jones (2), Brad Keselowski (2), Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, William Byron, and Chase Briscoe are former winners at Darlington.
Christopher Bell has finished 3rd in the last two races at Darlington.
Chris Buescher has finished 6th or better in 3 of the last 4 races at Darlington.
Ross Chastain has finished 7th or better in 3 of the last 4 races at Darlington.
Denny Hamlin has finished 7th or better in 7 of the last 9 races at Darlington.
William Byron has finished 8th or better in 5 of the last 6 races at Darlington.
Bubba Wallace has finished 9th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at Darlington.
William Byron (112.2), Tyler Reddick (107.8), Denny Hamlin (103.0), Joey Logano (94.8), and Christopher Bell (92.1) have the Top 5 highest average driver ratings at Darlington in the Next Gen Car.
Chase Elliott (74.4), Chase Briscoe (68.9), and Alex Bowman (64.9) are notable drivers with poor average driver ratings at Darlington in the Next Gen Car.
Todd Gilliland and Austin Cindric have never finished in the Top 10 in 7 career starts at Darlington.
There have been at least 8 cautions in 6 of the last 8 races at Darlington.
The last two race winners have started from the 3rd starting position at Darlington.

Practice Observations

While I believe practice observations are minimally important at Darlington, let’s discuss how drivers stacked up on Friday to make sure we are not missing anything significant. In practice, Michael McDowell laid down the fastest lap early Saturday. McDowell clocked a lap of 169.531mph on his first lap on the track. The opening group in practice easily laid down the fastest single lap speeds as they took advantage of cooler track conditions. As a result, you have a lot of unexpected names like McDowell, Justin Haley, Ty Gibbs, Carson Hocevar, and Noah Gragson who posted the Top 5 single lap speeds. With that being said, we are obviously not paying any attention to single lap speeds.

At Darlington, long-run speed is king. In reviewing overall lap times, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, and Ross Chastain were among the drivers that posted the best speed based on track conditions. Those 3 drivers were in the 2nd group but were posting speeds similar to the top cars in the opening session which had much faster track conditions. Perhaps those 3 drivers are no flue because all 3 of those drivers popped in our notes section above for producing strong trends at Darlington. Outside the top 3, I thought Denny Hamlin, Bubba Wallace, and Joey Logano were all really solid on the stopwatch as well. Hamlin rarely practices well so that is extra incentive for Hamlin’s stock going into Sunday. Lastly, I would note that drivers like Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, and Chase Briscoe were among the prestigious names that struggled with lap times in Saturday’s practice.

Betting Targets

Based on track history, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, and Denny Hamlin have simply outperformed everyone at Darlington from a consistency perspective. Reddick has actually performed better than some of his finishing positions may suggest. In fact, Reddick has finished 5th or better in 6 of the last 8 stages at Darlington yet is still seeking his first victory. Based on the fact that Reddick has posted performance metrics just as strong as both Byron and Hamlin but is getting much better betting value; I have to consider Reddick a strong betting target in all formats. Speaking of betting odds, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, and Bubba Wallace are among the group of dark horses that I believe has appetizing betting value. Logano and Chastain have performed really well at Darlington and are getting 20-1 odds or better. As a result, those drivers appear to provide legitimate dark horse value.

For even deeper targets, Chris Buescher and Erik Jones are among the drivers that have a Darlington resume that is too impressive to ignore. Jones is a two-time winner at Darlington and Buescher has failed to finish outside 6th in the last 3 of 4 races at Darlington. For those reasons, I like Buescher and Erik Jones as deeper dart throws. However, both drivers likely offer better cash potential in H2H and prop bet formats. Strictly from a fantasy perspective, I would throw out names like Brad Keselowski and Alex Bowman as drivers that are starting deep in the field. Bowman has never been really strong at Darlington but should move forward from his 29th starting position. Keselowski has even better potential due to his resume and is starting even deeper in the 32nd position.

2025 Draftkings Cook Out Southern 500 Optimal Lineup

2025 Cook Out Southern 500 Race Picks

*FINAL* William Byron +700 (1 unit)
Tyler Reddick +800 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +2000 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Prop Bets

Ross Chastain -130 over Josh Berry (2 units)
Chris Buescher -110 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Joey Logano -130 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Most Laps Led by any Driver under 181.5 +100 (2 units) *Caesars*
Total Number of Toyotas in Top 10 over 3.5 +110 (1 unit) *Caesars*
Erik Jones +3000 finishes Top Toyota (.25 unit)