2025 Craftsman Truck Series Championship Race Picks

Date/Time: Friday October 31st, 2025. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: FS1

Championship Weekend has arrived for NASCAR’s touring series and over the next 3 days there will be 3 different champions crowned in the Craftsman Truck Series, Xfinity Series, and Cup Series. The format is simple to understand with the highest finisher among the Championship 4 drivers winning the title and that will be the major storyline throughout this weekend’s races. However from a betting standpoint, it is our job to determine not only who should win the championship but also determine if there are any drivers that could upset the championship contenders with a victory. Our first opportunity will take place Friday night with the Craftsman Truck Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway!

As everyone is aware, Corey Heim has been the driver to beat throughout the entire season in the Truck Series. Heim has set several records with the amount of laps led, number of races that he has led laps, and his outright win total which was pushed to 11 last week at Martinsville. In fact, the 2nd half of the season has been nothing short of phenomenal for the #11 team who has won 6 of the last 8 races. Ahead of Friday night’s finale, Heim simply has to finish higher than Ty Majeski, Tyler Ankrum, and Kaden Honeycutt to put the bow on the most dominant season in Truck Series history.

Unfortunately for Heim, it does not matter what he has done to this point in the season and the only thing that matters is how things unfold at Phoenix. In fact, Heim entered last year’s race as the championship favorite but was beaten outright by Ty Majeski who dominated the season finale. Majeski, the defending champion, has failed to win a race throughout the entire season but is arguably among the best short track talents in the entire series along with Layne Riggs who are both capable of winning Friday. Needless to say, we must not assume any expected outcome on Friday simply based on prior results this season and must approach this championship finale from a strong handicapping perspective!

Handicapping Strategy

Unlike the Xfinity and Cup Series teams, the Truck Series has not previously competed at Phoenix Raceway. While the other two touring series compete at Phoenix twice each year, this Friday’s finale will be the only race at Phoenix this year which raises the level of uncertainty among teams and drivers. While we can look back at prior Phoenix races for some type of performance data, I also believe bettors should pay close attention towards performance results from both Richmond and New Hampshire in recent weeks to help establish our expectations. Both Richmond and New Hampshire have similarities to Phoenix with the flat banking at each venue. As a result, I believe we should closely observe performance from those races to help establish our final expectations for Friday.

Phoenix – Truck Notes

Ty Majeski (2024) and Chandler Smith (2021) are the only former winners at Phoenix.
Chandler Smith has finished no worse than 3rd in 4 career starts at Phoenix.
Ben Rhodes has finished in the Top 5 in 4 of the last 6 races at Phoenix.
Grant Enfinger has finished 6th or better in 5 of the last 7 races at Phoenix.
Kaden Honeycutt has finished 9th or better in all 3 career starts at Phoenix.
Corey Heim has finished 7th, 18th, and 2nd in 3 career starts at Phoenix.
Ty Majeski’s win last year was his only Top 10 finish in 4 career starts at Phoenix.
Tanner Gray has finished 11th or better in the last 3 races at Phoenix.
Layne Riggs has finished 10th and 13th in 2 career starts at Phoenix.
Tyler Ankrum has finished 14th or worse in his last 4 starts at Phoenix. *Ankrum’s career best finish is 6th in 6 career starts at Phoenix.
There have been 6 cautions or less in 6 of the last 8 races at Phoenix.
The eventual race winner has started from the pole in 3 of the last 4 races at Phoenix.

Practice Observations

Fortunately, NASCAR allows additional time for practice this weekend in preparation for the championship events. The Truck Series participated in a 50 minute session Thursday evening. At the end of that session, Ty Majeski continued to emerge as a driver to play the spoiler role. Majeski posted the fastest lap of the entire session and also posted some of the fastest averages throughout the session as well. Giovanni Ruggiero and Layne Riggs were additional drivers that looked really strong despite a limited number of laps completed. Corey Heim was not far off the top speed however it’s rare that we have not seen Heim dominate the practice sessions. With that being said, Kaden Honeycutt, Brent Crews, and Tanner Gray were among the additional drivers that appeared to have solid speed going into Friday’s finale.

Betting Targets

Corey Heim has won everything this season and also won on the two most similar handicapping tracks (New Hampshire and Richmond) compared to Phoenix. If you add the fact that Heim has won 6 of the last 8 races, it would be foolish not to expect another winning effort on Friday. However, something is telling me that Majeski may steal another season finale and perhaps collapse this ridiculous one race championship system in the process. Phoenix is one of Majeski’s best tracks and the #98 team absolutely nailed the setup last year. Judging by Thursday’s practice, they appear to have picked up where they left off a season ago and I am beginning to believe that Majeski may be the actual driver to beat going into Friday.

Behind Majeski, I am far less confident in any other potential upsets. With that being said, these championship races can get very dicey. If that happens, Layne Riggs may be among the best options to steal a victory. Unfortunately, I simply do not like the betting value on Riggs and am choosing to stay away. Instead, Brent Crews and Giovanni Ruggiero may be better dark horse options at much better betting value. Crews nearly got the victory last week at Martinsville and was very fast again in practice on Thursday. Likewise, Ruggiero’s performance has flown under the radar for most of the season and struck gold a few weeks ago at Talladega. I believe both Crews and Ruggiero are ideal H2H targets but can be considered in all formats. Ben Rhodes and Kaden Honeycutt are additional names that should be inside the Top 10 throughout the evening as well.

2025 Draftkings Truck Series Championship Optimal Lineup

2025 Truck Series Championship Race Picks

*FINAL* Chandler Smith +800 (1 unit)
Brent Crews +1200 (.5 unit)
Giovanni Ruggiero +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Prop Bets

Giovanni Ruggiero -115 over Rajah Caruth (3 units)
Chandler Smith -140 over Kaden Honeycutt (2 units)
Ty Majeski -125 over Layne Riggs (2 units)
Ben Rhodes +700 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)