2025 Cup Series Championship Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday November 2nd, 2025. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: NBC

On Sunday, the 2025 campaign will come to a close with NASCAR’s Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway. A page of the history books hangs in the balance. Among the championship contenders, young standouts Chase Briscoe and William Byron are seeking their first Cup Series title on the heels of breakout seasons. Kyle Larson is trying to cement his legacy with a 2nd championship and solidify the notion that he is the top driver in the world. Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin has been considered the best driver to never win a championship and will have another opportunity to erase that title while putting the ultimate stamp on one of the best careers in NASCAR history. One of those storylines will unfold on Sunday in NASCAR’s Cup Series Championship Race!

While the race to decide the championship will consume everyone’s attention, bettors cannot forget that there are potential scenarios where the eventual champion does not win on Sunday which was the case recently in 2023 with Ross Chastain winning the finale while Ryan Blaney won the championship. I mention that scenario because it is easy to get lost in the championship contenders when there may be other betting options that need to be considered which may yield the betting value that we desire. Therefore, I want to encourage bettors that all drivers should be evaluated for potential betting targets whether it is for the outright race win or for other styles of betting like H2H and prop bet formats.

Before we dive into handicapping strategy and stats for Phoenix, it would be important to point out that Christopher Bell won the Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix back in March. Bell has actually won the last two spring races at Phoenix and enters the weekend somewhat under the radar because his not among the championship contenders. In the spring race, Bell was relatively dominant, leading 105 laps en route to victory. Championship contender William Byron also led 83 laps in that race. Byron won the pole and led much of the early portions of the race. Bell, Byron, and Tyler Reddick were the best drivers in the spring based simply on average running position while Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson posted solid average driver ratings in that event.

Handicapping Strategy

I do not want to paint a false narrative this week and lie to anyone. Therefore, let me be upfront and clear that these championship races are not the best betting races. The odds are heavily skewed towards the championship drivers which saturates any betting value. More importantly, these races can be somewhat difficult to handicap because teams are bringing their absolute best to the track which may stray away from typical trends. As a result, we cannot leave anything off the table when handicapping this race. We will look at historical narratives specifically at Phoenix, look at performance trends at similar venues like Richmond and New Hampshire, and also evaluate practice/qualifying results from Saturday before pulling the trigger on our betting selections.

Phoenix – Cup Notes

• Joey Logano leads all active drivers with 4 career wins at Phoenix.
• Kyle Busch (3), Denny Hamlin (2), Christopher Bell (2), Kyle Larson, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, and Chase Briscoe are former winners at Phoenix.
• Ryan Blaney has finished 2nd in 4 of the last 6 races at Phoenix. *Blaney has finished in the Top 5 in 7 of the last 8 races at Phoenix.
• Kyle Larson has finished 4th or better in 4 of the last 5 races at Phoenix.
• Chris Buescher has finished in the Top 5 in 3 of the last 4 races at Phoenix.
• Christopher Bell has finished 6th or better in 4 of the last 5 races at Phoenix.
• William Byron has finished 6th or better in 5 of the last 6 races at Phoenix.
• Ross Chastain has finished 6th or better in 4 of the last 7 races at Phoenix.
• William Byron (112.1), Ryan Blaney (111.8), Christopher Bell (104.0), Kyle Larson (101.6), and Joey Logano (95.7) have the highest average driver ratings at Phoenix in the Next Gen Car.
• Joey Logano has finished outside the Top 10 in 4 of the last 5 races at Phoenix.
• Chase Elliott has finished 10th or worse in 5 of the last 6 races at Phoenix.
• Alex Bowman has finished 14th or worse in 17 of 20 career races at Phoenix.
• There have been 6 cautions or less in 5 of the last 6 races at Phoenix.
• Toyota drivers have won 2 of the last 3 races at Phoenix.
• The eventual race winner has started from the Top 6 positions in 10 of the last 14 races at Phoenix.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

The sentimental favorite, Denny Hamlin, emerged from Saturday’s sessions as the big winner going into Sunday’s finale. Hamlin captured the pole with a fast lap of 133.759mph and will have the opportunity to lead the field to the green flag. Behind Hamlin, championship contenders William Byron and Kyle Larson will start 2nd and 3rd. Austin Cindric and Ryan Blaney are the other two drivers that rounded out the Top 5 qualifying positions. Before qualifying took place, Cup Series teams and drivers had a full 50 minute practice session which perhaps shed some light towards potential race speed on Sunday.

At the end of 50 minutes of practice, Ty Gibbs held the fastest time with a speed of 131.868mph. While Gibbs had the fastest single lap speed, Ryan Blaney was the driver that appeared to have the best “race” speed. Blaney led all drivers with the best 5, 10, and 20 lap consecutive averages. Kyle Larson and William Byron also appeared to have potential race winning speed. Both Larson and Byron were among the drivers that excelled after about 15 laps and showed excellent long-run speed. Behind some of the well-known favorites, I would also note that Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, and Ross Chastain were among the additional names that were also really solid on speed. Deeper into the field, Erik Jones and Ricky Stenhouse Jr were among the less prestigious names that showed solid speed in practice!

Betting Targets

Based on current betting odds, the heavy betting favorites of Kyle Larson, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney are all worthy of the heavy favorite consideration for a multitude of reasons. However, I believe William Byron and Ryan Blaney are the drivers most worthy of their current betting odds. Both Byron and Blaney are the only drivers to post a +100 average driver rating at the last 5 short tracks. More importantly, both Blaney and Byron have surpassed the +100 average driver rating by a wide margin and also appear to have the best historical stats to support betting consideration as well. As a result, Byron and Blaney get the proverbial 1a and 1b style favorite designations going into championship Sunday!

Behind the heavy favorites, I believe Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano are among the best options to steal a victory from the group of drivers that are not in the championship hunt. All 3 drivers have superb resumes at Phoenix and showed a lot of speed during practice. Of the 3 betting options, I would list Bell and Elliott as the primary betting options in futures and H2H formats. As we move deeper into the betting field, Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher quickly emerge as ideal H2H betting targets based on their prestigious Phoenix resumes. Meanwhile, if you are looking for deeper lottery style flier options, I would suggest the likes of Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Erik Jones as drivers that have higher upside than current betting odds suggests!

2025 Draftkings Cup Series Championship Race Optimal Lineup

2025 Cup Series Championship Race Picks

*More picks to be posted closer to race time. Check back until “FINAL” status is displayed* William Byron +450 (1.25 units)
Ryan Blaney +500 (1.25 units)
Christopher Bell +1000 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +2500 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +3000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Prop Bets

Chris Buescher -110 over Ryan Preece (3 units)
William Byron -110 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Chase Elliott +1000 finishes Top Chevrolet (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +1200 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)
Christopher Bell +450 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +850 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)