On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series will cap off a full weekend of racing at Watkins Glen International with the running of the Go Bowling at the Glen. Just 3 races remain in the Cup Series’ regular season including Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen. Coincidentally, there are just 3 spots open for the Cup Series playoffs which are currently being decided on points with Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman, and Chris Buescher currently in transfer positions. However, the points transfers are only sufficient if we do not experience any additional first-time winners this season. With Daytona looming on the horizon, these next two races at Watkins Glen and Richmond are extremely important to those drivers looking to solidify their playoff hopes on points!
At one point this season and not extremely long ago, Shane Van Gisbergen was among the drivers that was still trying to secure a playoff spot with a victory. Not only did SVG breakthrough with a victory at Mexico City in mid-June but he also went on to win back to back races at Chicago and Sonoma. As a result, SVG has won the last 3 races at road course venues and has built a healthy surplus of playoff points which will be very important once the playoffs begin. Without question, SVG has been the dominant driver at the road course style venues this season and he will have a chance to win a 4th straight road course event on Sunday.
With that being said, Watkins Glen is one of the few road courses on the schedule that may still favor the Cup Series veterans. The Cup Series has visited Watkins Glen annually since 1986 and that means a lot of the Cup Series veterans have a lot of experience at the Glen. In last year’s race, SVG appeared destined to pick up his 2nd career win but Chris Buescher got around the road course king with a pass on the last lap. Needless to say, it will be interesting to see if SVG can close the deal this year at Watkins Glen. If not, the question becomes who can knock SVG off of the road course throne? While there are several upset candidates among the Cup Series veterans, there is also another road course phenom that will be making his first start at Watkins Glen on Sunday!
Our dynamic averages which displays performance trends over the last 5 races at road course venues is an important handicapping tool. While we should put some credit towards the historical trends and narratives listed above, it is also important that we observe how drivers/teams have performed recently at the road courses. While I will not discuss everyone individually, I would point to guys like Kyle Larson (2 wins in last 4 races at Watkins Glen) and Ryan Blaney (pole winner) as drivers that have produced less than stellar metrics at the road courses this season. Meanwhile, drivers like Denny Hamlin and Daniel Suarez are also worth mentioning because they have produced dismal metrics throughout the season on the road courses. Needless to say, we want to make sure that any betting selections that we make on Sunday do not completely contradict how these drivers/teams have performed in recent races on similar style layouts.
On Saturday, Ryan Blaney earned his first career pole at Watkins Glen with a fast lap of 122.568mph. Blaney edged out SVG for the top spot while Chase Briscoe, Ross Chastain, Kyle Busch, and Michael McDowell were among those that qualified in the top 6 positions which has produced 6 of the last 7 winners at Watkins Glen. Before single lap speeds dictated qualifying results, Justin Haley surprised everyone by posting the fastest lap in practice. Haley posted the fastest single lap time and also led all drivers with the best 5-lap consecutive average as well. William Byron led all drivers with the best 10 and 15 lap consecutive averages.
Meanwhile, Xfinity Series phenom Connor Zilisch, Kyle Larson, SVG, and Chris Buescher were among the drivers that were solid in practice as well. Zilisch is making just his 2nd career start but he won at Watkins Glen in his first career Xfinity Series start a year ago. More importantly, Zilisch has shown the ability to match, if not better, the speed of SVG in the Xfinity Series races on road courses this season. Needless to say, Zilisch is a top talent going into Sunday despite his limited Cup experience. While practice speeds are not always reliable, I will note that Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, and Denny Hamlin were among the big names that struggled in practice. More importantly, I would note that tires seemed to fall a decent amount after about 15-20 laps. If that trend holds true on race day, that means tire strategy may be just as important as fuel strategy on Sunday!
I don’t believe that I am surprising anyone by stating SVG is the clear favorite going into Sunday. I feel like I am saying “water is wet” with that comment. SVG has won the last 3 races at road courses and does better than anyone in the category of managing their equipment. Therefore if we consider outright speed and tire fall off, this race seems to be playing into SVG’s strengths. With that being said, these Cup Series races are still very tough to win and passing is difficult. Therefore if a dominant driver like SVG makes a mistake or does not hit the right strategy, the door will be wide open for another upset winner like we witnessed last year with Chris Buescher.
Personally, I expected Connor Zilisch to be among the top threats going into Sunday but Zilisch has not looked as impressive in the Cup Series car thus far. As a result, I am looking deeper into the field at the likes of William Byron and Michael McDowell as potential dark horses. Byron has a win at Watkins Glen in the Next Gen Car from 2023 and was very strong in practice. Byron was among the fastest cars throughout the entire session and I have to believe that speed will translate to race speed on Sunday. For McDowell, I believe has been one of the most solid drivers at road courses in the Next Gen Car. McDowell seems to always be towards the front in these races and it helps that the #71 is in a near must-win situation to make the playoffs.
From a betting odds perspective, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Carson Hocevar, and AJ Allmendinger are among the drivers that have legitimate betting value. We are getting near 25-1 odds on Larson due to a pair of poor sessions on Saturday. However, Larson is still one of the absolute best at Watkins Glen and has won 2 of the last 4 races. Meanwhile, Bell and Hocevar are two very underrated road course talents that also have higher upside than current betting odds suggest. For Allmendinger, I believe he is being overlooked due to recency bias. However, Allmendinger has always been strong at Watkins Glen and is one of those drivers that is getting generous value. Personally, I believe Allmendinger and Hocevar are also sneaky solid H2H targets but can also be given low-risk consideration in futures formats as well.
Judging by early betting odds, this weekend's races in the O'Reilly Auto Parts Series and…
NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to Austin, Texas on Sunday for the running of the DuraMAX…
While the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series and Cup Series will be at Circuit of the…
On Saturday, NASCAR will host another double header between the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series and…
Last week, Tyler Reddick scored the biggest win of his career and the biggest win…
Last week, Austin Hill captured another victory at Daytona International Speedway marking the 4th time…
This website uses cookies.