2025 Iowa Corn 350 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday August 3rd, 2025. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Iowa Speedway
TV: USA

On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series will fire the engines for the running of the Iowa Corn 350 at Iowa Speedway. The Cup Series hosted the first race in series history at Iowa Speedway last year and the track produced great racing which has seemingly earned a permanent spot on the Cup schedule. Following Bubba Wallace’s upset win last week at Indianapolis to become the 13th different winner of the season, just 3 spots remain open for the playoffs. As a result, there are several drivers in desperate need to put themselves into winning contention and/or have strong points days to improve the playoff outlook going into Sunday’s Iowa Corn 350!

For those that may be unfamiliar with Iowa as one of the newer tracks on the schedule, the track is listed as a “short track” because it is only ⅞ of a mile in length. However, the track races more like a short track/intermediate hybrid sort of like Dover. However, the relatively flat banking mimics racing that can be compared to an overgrown Richmond Raceway or racing that is similar to what we see at Rockingham Speedway. In fact, Hall of Fame driver Rusty Wallace was one of the leading designers when Iowa Speedway was created back in 2006. Wallace designed the speedway to produce racing similar to Richmond Raceway which was one of Wallace’s favorite tracks.

While the Cup Series has not raced at Richmond, Rockingham, or other extremely similar tracks this season, we can look at prior performance trends at similar venues as an additional handicapping angle this week. However we will look at many more handicapping angles which includes performances on the short tracks throughout the season, practice speeds from Saturday’s on-track sessions, and a few other reaching angles that will help paint the best handicapping picture ahead of tomorrow’s green flag. As a result, let’s discuss some of our major handicapping topics since we do not have much to review in terms of track history!

Betting Strategy

Before Saturday’s on-track activities, I was significantly disappointed in opening betting odds which listed numerous drivers as heavy betting favorites more so than most traditional racing weekends. Since the Next Gen Car was released, it appears that odds makers simply saturate all value from the top 8-10 cars when we visit speedways without a lot of handicapping metrics aside from the superspeedways. Needless to say, that seems to be the case this weekend again with most drivers overvalued in terms of what we would expect from normal racing odds. Following qualifying results on Saturday which saw a lot of big names towards the top of the charts, those odds have not improved in the least. Therefore, I would encourage an extremely conservative betting strategy especially in futures formats because there simply is not much value for the most likely contenders. Instead this week, we will put heavier emphasis on H2H match-ups and attempt to exploit pairings in order to produce sharp value.

Dynamic Averages

It has been several weeks since we reviewed our dynamic averages on the short tracks. However, I believe this is a good week to renew our focus towards how drivers have performed on the short tracks throughout the season. As you will see by clicking on the link above, Denny Hamlin (119.9), Christopher Bell (117.1), and Kyle Larson (113.5) have produced stellar driver ratings over the last 5 races at short tracks. Chase Elliott is the only other driver with a triple digit average rating. Bell started the season extremely strong on the short tracks and just happens to be extremely good at Iowa as well. Meanwhile last year’s winner Ryan Blaney and William Byron are drivers that have also produced really strong ratings as well. While I do not plan on discussing every driver’s performance in this data set, I would also draw attention to the dismal metrics from the RFK Racing brigade which includes Chris Buescher, Ryan Preece, and Brad Keselowski who have all produced average driver ratings under 70.0.

Practice Speeds

In Saturday’s practice session, the field was split into two groups which has been a routine theme this season on the intermediate-smaller layouts. In the opening session, Kyle Busch lost control and hit the wall head-on. The wreck caused Busch to miss qualifying as the team spent the time preparing the backup car. Busch and teammate Austin Dillon were showing some speed in the opening session but the #8 team will now be at a disadvantage without any laps on their backup machine. Also in the opening session, Joey Logano and Ross Chastain grabbed attention for the wrong reasons. Logano was 36th on the speed charts and struggled throughout the session. Chastain was not nearly as bad as Logano but he was also pretty “off” in the speed department.

The second practice session had most of the heavy hitters which was led by Christopher Bell who posted the fastest lap of the session with a speed of 133.980mph. While Bell had the fastest lap of the session, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott were among the drivers that appeared to have the best speed lap over lap. Those 4 drivers were within one-hundredths of a second on several different major metrics. Meanwhile, I would give notable mentions to guys like Ryan Blaney, Bubba Wallace, and Justin Haley who also appeared to show solid speed as well.

Betting Targets

As noted above, betting odds are somewhat discouraging with 6 different drivers receiving less than 10-1 odds. Unfortunately, Iowa Speedway is one of those tracks where the top guys typically prevail and that means the likelihood of the winner coming from the top 6-8 betting favorites is really high. Personally, I am going to stay away from Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney just because those teams have not exactly performed well in recent weeks. However, I believe Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Chase Elliott are checking all of the right handicapping indicators to warrant betting consideration. Oddly enough both Hamlin and Bell are getting the best betting odds of the favorites and they would be my top two picks going into the race.

I’m not a big fan of many of the drivers listed just outside the range of betting “favorites.” Chase Briscoe has been fast everywhere in recent weeks but I don’t trust him at his current odds. Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric, and others in that intermediate range have not clicked on any handicapping angles. Honestly, all of the Fords seemed to struggle in practice on Saturday which means we may stay away from those cars all together. Deeper into the field, Bubba Wallace and Josh Berry are additional names that appear to be undervalued in terms of betting odds. Berry is a really strong short track talent and has solid performance trends at similar tracks like Richmond and Loudon. Personally, I like Berry in H2H and prop bet formats while Wallace is strictly a H2H target.

Lastly, Kyle Busch and Erik Jones are a pair of drivers that are getting relatively big numbers from odds makers. Like I said in the practice observations above, Busch and teammate Austin Dillon showed solid speed in practice. Richard Childress has been pushing the organization for better results and it appeared they had better speed this week before Busch’s wreck. If the #8 team unloads a fast backup car, Busch has strong appeal in prop bet situations with plus value. Likewise, Erik Jones and John Hunter Nemechek are some drivers that qualified poorly but have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. Both drivers have posted surprising quality performances in recent weeks and should race much better than their qualifying results suggest. As a result, both drivers can be targeted in fantasy and potential top 10 style prop bets.

2025 Draftkings Iowa Corn 350 Optimal Lineup

2025 Iowa Corn 350 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Christopher Bell +800 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1000 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +1000 (.75 unit)
Josh Berry +3000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Denny Hamlin -120 over Brad Keselowski (3 units)
Christopher Bell -130 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Over 8 cautions -115 (2 units) *Bovada
Toyota -120 over Ford (2 units) *Caesars
Justin Haley +500 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +700 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)