2025 Jack Link’s 500 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday April 27th, 2025. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: FOX

After enjoying a rare off weekend, NASCAR’s Cup Series will return to action this Sunday with the running of the Jack Link’s 500 on the high-banks of Talladega Superspeedway. Through 9 races this season, the Cup Series has produced just 5 different winners with Christopher Bell (3), Denny Hamlin (2), and Kyle Larson (2) already among those that have racked up multiple wins. However, the opportunity for a new first-time winner this season will be elevated on Sunday because Talladega is the ultimate wildcard and the most notorious track to produce surprise winners. We will discuss drivers that are worthy of betting consideration and try to put ourselves on the winning side of what promises to be a wild return to Talladega!

Despite Talladega’s reputation for producing surprise winners, the majority of previous winners at Talladega have not been very surprising. In fact, 8 of the last 12 winners at Talladega have come from former series champions. There have been a few mild surprises like Bubba Wallace’s win in 2018 and Ricky Stenhouse’s victory last October. However, both Wallace and Stenhouse are known as strong superspeedway talents. If I really examine the prior winners at Talladega, I think we could go all the way back to 2013 to find a huge underdog style victory with David Ragan. The reason I point out these facts is important because despite Talladega’s reputation that any driver in the field can win; we often see somewhat predictable names standing in victory lane.

With that being said, that is not to say that handicapping or betting these races at Talladega is easy by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, it is quite the opposite because there are a lot of drivers that are known for having strong superspeedway skills. As a result, hitting a winner at the superspeedways still feels like a calibrated dart throw in hurricane style winds. Due to the volatility, we must ensure that our picks yield’s sufficient return on investment (ROI) for each wager. Since our winning percentage is expected to be lower in this unpredictable style of racing, we must ensure that our wagers are producing the ROI to sustain a profitable long-term strategy. Therefore, our main focus, for Sunday, will be as much about betting “value” as it is in determining the best superspeedway talents!

Talladega – Cup Notes

• Brad Keselowski leads all active drivers with 6 career wins at Talladega.
• Joey Logano (3), Ryan Blaney (3), Ricky Stenhouse Jr (2), Chase Elliott (2), Denny Hamlin (2), Kyle Busch (2), Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, and Tyler Reddick are all former winners at Talladega.
• William Byron has the best average finishing position (10.0) over the last 10 races at Talladega.
• Erik Jones has finished in the top 10 in 7 of the last 10 races at Talladega.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr finished 1st and 4th in both races at Talladega in 2024.
• Brad Keselowski has finished in the top 5 in 3 of the last 4 races at Talladega.
• Chase Elliott has the highest average driver rating (92.0) at Talladega in the Next Gen Car.
• Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, and Ross Chastain are the only drivers with an 85+ average driver rating at Talladega in the Next Gen Car.
• Kyle Larson has a 21.9 average finishing position through 20 career starts making Talladega his worst track statistically.
• Michael McDowell has the worst average finishing position (26.8) among active drivers with more than 5 starts at Talladega.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 4 of the last 6 races at Talladega.
• The last 8 race winners have started from 10th position or worse at Talladega.
• There have been just 4 cautions in each of the last 3 races at Talladega.

Loop Data

As always when it comes to superspeedway racing, it is important that bettors also analyze performance trends at all of the superspeedway venues. While trends are not guaranteed to repeat themselves, our handicapping method is centered around finding the drivers that constantly put themselves into a winning position at these races combined with finding sufficient ROI in each selection. To help our handicapping, I believe that our dynamic averages at the superspeedways is a solid tool that can be used to gauge performance trends over the last 5 superspeedway races.

As you will see, all 3 Team Penske cars are ranked 1, 2, and 3 in our dynamic averages over the last 5 superspeedway races which should not be surprising because those cars have been absolutely stellar in terms of performance at the superspeedways. What may be surprising is to see names like Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman towards the top 6-7 drivers in our rankings. Both Larson and Bowman have struggled mightily at the superspeedways throughout their careers but have relatively solid performance averages in recent events. Perhaps more surprising is the very poor performance trends from the likes of Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin who have combined for 10 victories at Talladega.

Betting Targets

Based on how strong the Team Penske cars have been at the superspeedways, I would love to have a lot of exposure to the Team Penske camp in betting and fantasy formats. Strictly in terms of betting, Austin Cindric may be one of the best “value” options among the group of drivers in the range of betting “favorites.” Cindric is currently listed at 16-1 odds and yet ranks 2nd in our dynamic averages along with the rest of the Team Penske brigade. Behind Cindric, I would probably side with Ryan Blaney over Joey Logano but I think you could go either way. I simply like the raw speed that the #12 car has shown in recent weeks and thought that is not a huge deal at Talladega; it does not hurt either.

Aside from the Team Penske cars, I believe Kyle Busch and William Byron are both worthy of consideration due to how solid they have been in the Next Gen Car at superspeedways. Byron’s track record is among the best in the sport over the last couple of years and he has decent value at his current odds. While I would like to have other drivers that provide name brand and talent potential, I’m not interested in many other drivers that are less than 20-1 odds because I simply have to have better ROI if I am going to take 2-3 of the drivers mentioned above.

For the deeper dark horses, I personally like the value of drivers like Ricky Stenhouse, Josh Berry, and perhaps Ross Chastain though Melon Man is barely on the north side of the 20-1 mark. If you look even deeper into the field, Erik Jones, AJ Allmendinger, and Justin Haley are among the group of drivers that are receiving huge numbers that may be worth a lottery ticket or perhaps even better in prop bet formats. Jones and Haley are two of my favorite fantasy targets going into Sunday for their low price tags and opportunistic starting positions.

Draftkings 2025 Jack Link’s 500 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Ag-Pro 300 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Ryan Blaney +1000 (1 unit)
Austin Cindric +1600 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +2200 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +2800 (.5 unit)
Josh Berry +3000 (.5 unit)
Ryan Preece +3300 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +5000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ty Dillon +350 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)