2025 Kansas Lottery 300 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday September 27th, 2025. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV: CW

NASCAR’s Xfinity and Cup Series teams will visit Kansas Speedway this weekend as the fight for the championship heats up in both series. While this will be the Cup Series’ second stop of the season at Kansas, the Xfinity Series will be competing for the first time this season at Kansas Speedway. The action will begin on Saturday with the running of the Kansas Lottery 300 which will wave the green flag shortly after 4:00PM (EST). As we prepare for back to back races at Kansas, let’s turn our focus to the handicapping side of the equation and discuss betting opportunities for Saturday’s 2nd race in the Xfinity Series playoffs.

Last week, Aric Almirola ended Connor Zilisch’s 4-race winning streak with a victory at Bristol Motor Speedway. While it was Almirola’s 2nd victory of the season, Almirola is not a part of the playoff picture due to his part-time status. As a result, there are not any Xfinity Series’ playoff drivers that have secured advancement into the 2nd round of the playoffs. Perhaps more importantly, the Xfinity Series has not competed at a non-drafting 1.5 mile speedway since the Coca Cola 600 weekend back in May at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The Xfinity Series was once dominated by 1.5 mile speedways but that is no longer the case.

As a result, we are heading into Saturday’s Kansas Lottery 300 without a lot of recent races, on similar layouts, to produce highly confident plays. For that reason, I believe that bettors have to be relatively conservative going into Saturday. In fact, we could make a strong case for more confident betting plays for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 due to the fact the Cup Series has already raced at Kansas this year and has competed at other 1.5 mile venues more frequently. Needless to say, we don’t want to create any betting situation where we dig ourselves into a hole and overextend our risks without the confidence we desire. We simply have to wait on things to become clearer through Saturday’s early practice and qualifying sessions to produce a higher level of conviction.

Notes – Kansas Speedway

Brandon Jones leads all active drivers with two (2) career wins at Kansas.
Aric Almirola is the only other active previous winner at Kansas. *Almirola is the defending winner of the Kansas Lottery 300*
Brandon Jones has finished 6th or better in 5 of the last 7 races at Kansas.
Sheldon Creed has finished in the Top 5 in his last two starts at Kansas.
Connor Zilisch finished 4th in his first career start at Kansas last year in a part-time role.
Austin Hill has finished 7th or better in 3 of 4 career starts at Kansas.
Justin Allgaier is the only full-time driver to win this season at a 1.5 mile non-drafting venue (Las Vegas).
Justin Allgaier, Austin Hill, and Sam Mayer are the only drivers to finish in the Top 5 in 2 of the 3 races this season at non-drafting 1.5 mile venues.
Ryan Sieg has finished in the Top 10 in 5 of the last 8 races at Kansas.
Sam Mayer’s best finish is 8th in 4 career starts at Kansas.
Sammy Smith’s best finish is 8th in 3 career starts at Kansas.
There have been at least 10 cautions in 3 of the last 5 races at Kansas.
Toyota drivers have won 5 of the last 7 races at Kansas.
The eventual race winner has started from the Top 10 in 7 straight races at Kansas.

Betting Targets

As I stated earlier, I don’t believe the Xfinity Series has competed at traditional 1.5 mile venues enough this season to produce a high degree of confidence going into Kansas. As a result, I am waiting until Saturday’s early practice and qualifying sessions to solidify my betting picks and the amount of risks I am willing to commit to this event. With that being stated, I believe bettors should expect the J.R Motorsports cars of Zilisch and Allgaier to be heavy favorites as betting odds suggest. Zilisch has been the best driver in the series by a wide margin and the JRM/Hendrick Motorsports cars have won all 3 races this season at non-drafting 1.5 mile venues. As a result, I don’t expect that trend to necessarily change going into Saturday.

If we are looking at potential dark horses, Brandon Jones and Sheldon Creed are drivers that are high on my list. Jones has a superb Kansas resume that includes two wins and he won the pole during last year’s race. Meanwhile, Creed has posted back to back top 5 finishes at Kansas. In both of those races, Creed overcame poor track position and perhaps not the greatest car to race his way into the top 5 by the end of the race. For that reason, Creed may be one of those drivers that we can consider post-qualifying because his value could get better if there is another slow start to the weekend. Behind those guys, Sam Mayer, Taylor Gray, and Ryan Sieg are additional potential targets that I will be monitoring during Saturday’s sessions. All of those drivers have shown strong speed at the intermediate layouts and even in recent weeks.