2025 Mission 176 at the Glen Race Picks

Date/Time: Friday August 8th, 2025. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Watkins Glen International
TV: FS1

This weekend all of NASCAR’s major touring series will be in action for 3 straight days of road course racing at historic Watkins Glen International. The racing action will kick off on Friday with the Craftsman Truck Series and the running of the Mission 176 at the Glen. For Truck Series’ drivers, this Friday’s stop at Watkins Glen and next week’s race at Richmond are the final two races in the regular season before the Truck Series playoffs begin later this month at Darlington. While Friday’s race carries a lot of playoff implications for the Truck Series regulars, the Mission 176 at the Glen is loaded with tons of talent to produce one of the biggest races of the entire season!

Among the entries this week includes the likes of Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, and Chris Buescher from the Cup Series. On top of those prestigious names, Xfinity Series phenom and road course standout Connor Zilisch will be in action along with fellow Xfinity Series’ drivers William Sawalich and Sammy Smith. On top of those names, Brent Crews, Parker Kligerman, and a few others will also make part-time starts this week at Watkins Glen to yield a crazy entry list that is simply stacked with talent from top to bottom. More importantly, the numerous big names in Friday’s field should offer an abundance of betting options especially in H2H formats.

Before we get into potential betting picks, I do feel it is important to mention that there were a couple of major Truck Series storylines that happened off the track in the last week. Playoff contender Stewart Friesen was involved in a serious wreck in a dirt modified and will likely miss the rest of the season with injuries. Additionally, Kaden Honeycutt was released from Niece Motorsports early this week after he signed with a different manufacturer for next season. Honeycutt currently sits 6th in the Truck Series standings and is undoubtedly a playoff contender. Due to this move, Honeycutt will step into the #52 truck after this week’s race at Watkins Glen and will compete in the #52 for the remainder of the season. Christopher Bell was already slated to compete in the #52 truck this week before Honeycutt was released which means Honeycutt will not race with the #52 team until next week at Richmond.

Betting and Handicapping Strategy

In terms of turning our focus towards handicapping Friday’s Mission 176 at the Glen, it is important to note that this will be just the 2nd race the Truck Series has held at Watkins Glen since 2000. As a result, the majority of the Truck Series’ regulars do not have any experience at Watkins Glen aside from a few veterans that competed in the 2021 race. Obviously, the experience factor will be important this week and that will help the more experienced guys from the Cup Series and Xfinity Series. In order to handicap this race successfully, we will need to identify the best road course talents and also identify the drivers that will be impacted by the equipment they are driving.

For example, Connor Zilisch is the well-deserved heavy favorite in Friday’s race due to his phenomenal road course skills. However, Zilisch and Ross Chastain are piloting trucks owned by Niece Motorsports who have struggled a lot throughout the season. Will Zilisch’s talent be enough to overcome the equipment disadvantage? Should we give more credit to guys like Kyle Busch and Christopher Bell who are in more proven equipment? Those are the questions that we must address to handicap this race successfully. With that being said, I don’t believe we are going to see great numbers in terms of betting value due to the abundance of high-profile names in this event. As a result, we will likely have to be conservative in futures formats and put more of our risk/sharp value towards H2H formats to produce profits!

Betting Targets

To avoid breaking down each drivers’ strengths and weaknesses at the road courses and what type of equipment that each driver is piloting, let’s just make observations based on current betting odds. Based on current odds, I believe odds makers have ranked the driver’s respectably. Connor Zilisch is a huge betting favorite for justifiable reasons. Zilisch’s skillset is among the best in the entire sport at the road courses and Watkins Glen is also the site of his first NASCAR win which came in his first career start last season. Needless to say, Zilisch has a knack for Watkins Glen and a skill set that far outweighs my concerns for the equipment that Niece Motorsports has been producing this season.

Behind Zilisch, Corey Heim is getting the 2nd best betting odds. While Heim dominated the only road course this season at Lime Rock Park, I’m not sure if he is the clear 2nd best favorite in the field. Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch, and Christopher Bell are all deserving contenders. Buescher beat Shane Van Gisbergen heads-up in last year’s Cup Series race at Watkins Glen. However, Buescher is making his 1st career start in the Truck Series. Personally, I think Busch may be the sharper pick of all the Cup Series drivers. Busch has made multiple starts with the #07 team already this year and has never finished outside the top 5 in 3 career starts at the road courses. While I could argue Bell and Buescher have been better at Watkins Glen in the stock cars, the trucks drive differently and have different shifting points compared to stock cars. For that reason, I think Busch may be a valuable sneaky play in all formats.

As we look deeper into the field, I am slightly less confident towards identifying early dark horses or drivers with deep prop bet value. I will be watching practices closely to see if there are any surprises in the speed department. I do believe Ty Majeski, Sammy Smith, and Parker Kligerman are all among the drivers that are undervalued in terms of betting odds. All of those drivers are getting 50-1 odds or better and have legitimate top 5 upside. As a result, I believe those drivers are solid H2H targets and can also be considered in prop bet formats. Lastly, Gio Ruggiero is a driver that is in top-tier equipment and has an underrated road course skill set. Ruggiero was very solid at Lime Rock Park and I believe he will be a potential fantasy or deep H2H target given the right situations.

2025 Draftkings Mission 176 at the Glen Optimal Lineup

2025 Mission 176 at the Glen Race Picks

*FINAL*

Christopher Bell +350 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +700 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +1200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Christopher Bell -110 over Chris Buescher (2 units)
Layne Riggs +400 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Ty Majeksi +500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Sammy Smith +500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Connor Zilisch -120 wins Mission 176 at the Glen
Connor Zilisch +450 wins Go Bowling at the Glen
Risking 1 unit to win: +900