On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will get their opportunity to step into the spotlight at Watkins Glen International with the running of the Mission 200 at the Glen. Similar to Friday’s Truck Series event at Watkins Glen, Saturday’s Mission 200 at the Glen will feature numerous part-time entries including the road course king in Shane Van Gisbergen who has already won 3 times this season in the Cup Series at road course venues. SVG, Michael McDowell, and Riley Herbst are among the Cup Series veterans that headlines Saturday’s field and will be among those competing for a chance at victory at Watkins Glen!
Despite SVG’s dominance at the road course in both the Cup and Xfinity Series, many could argue that Connor Zilisch deserves to be the outright favorite going into race day. Zilisch captured his first Xfinity Series win in his first career start in last season’s debut at Watkins Glen. In that race, Zilisch dominated the event from the pole to beat Sheldon Creed, AJ Allmendinger, and SVG in convincing fashion. That victory fast tracked Zilisch’s career and honestly earned him his full-time seat at J.R Motorsports.
Of course for those that follow the series closely, Zilisch has been arguably the biggest breakout star in the entire sport winning 5 times already this season including a stretch of 3 wins in a row that ended last week at Iowa. Needless to say, Zilisch will have the opportunity to put together an encore performance at the venue that essentially kicked off his career. With that being said, we did see a lot of strategy and fuel mileage come into play during Friday’s Truck Series race. While I personally believe strategy will be a much bigger factor on Sunday, we cannot rule out the possibility of strategy shaking things up on Saturday either. Therefore, let’s discuss what we should expect and how that impacts how we approach betting Saturday’s Mission 200 at the Glen.
Unfortunately, SVG and Zilisch’s dominance at the road courses leaves very little to be desired in terms of betting value. Both drivers are essentially listed at even money and have an extremely high likelihood of capturing victory on Saturday. While Zilisch beat SVG straight-up in last year’s race at Watkins Glen, I believe it is worth mentioning that SVG was likely at a disadvantage in the equipment department. For Saturday’s Mission 200 at the Glen, SVG will be stepping into the #9 car with J.R Motorsports which is undoubtedly among the top two teams in the garage.
As a result, I believe SVG and Zilisch are on a much more level playing field for this year’s race at the Glen. Despite those facts, there is minimal value to be found in futures unless bettors chase value on the underdogs. While that strategy is not absurd based on ROI potential, I believe SVG and Zilisch are going to have to run into trouble or get beaten on strategy for the chance of any dark horses prevailing. Simply put, I don’t believe anyone is beating the duo of SVG/Zilisch straight-up on Saturday. For that reason, the majority of our focus will be put towards H2H match-ups where there are better opportunities to produce legitimate profits.
Since the Xfinity Series regularly competes at the road courses, I thought I would compile performance metrics to reflect how drivers/teams have performed so far this season at the road courses. The below loop data metrics reflect all 4 prior road course races this season at COTA, Mexico City, Chicago, and Sonoma. As you will see in the table below, SVG and Connor Zilisch have produced mind-boggling average driver ratings over the road course races this season. Both drivers have produced 140.7 and 136.1 average driver ratings this season which is simply incredible and that is why I stated above that the likelihood of either SVG or Zilisch winning on Saturday is extremely high. Behind the dynamic duo, Austin Hill (103.8) is the only other driver to produce a triple digit average rating on the road courses this season.
Hill will return from a one-race suspension this week which is rather meaningless from a handicapping perspective. However, Hill has also never finished better than 14th in 3 career starts at Watkins Glen which is something to consider strongly. Behind Hill, Sheldon Creed, Sammy Smith, and Sam Mayer are additional talents that have performed strongly this season at road course venues. Personally, I think Smith is one of the more underrated road course talents in the series and he has produced the stats that prove that point. While I refuse to go through every single driver’s metrics on this list, I would draw attention to the seemingly disappointing metrics from Justin Allgaier and Brandon Jones. Both drivers have produced poor metrics based on the caliber of their profiles.
*Data reflects prior 4 races this season at the road courses.
| Driver | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 140.7 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | -5 | 38 | 51 | 129 |
| Connor Zilisch | 136.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 6.3 | -165 | 58 | 100 | 259 |
| Austin Hill | 103.8 | 9.3 | 13.5 | 5.8 | 9.0 | -25 | 6 | 6 | 259 |
| Sammy Smith | 96.1 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 9.8 | -139 | 3 | 5 | 259 |
| Riley Herbst | 95.2 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 11.5 | -45 | 1 | 7 | 144 |
| Sheldon Creed | 94.1 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 11.0 | -143 | 4 | 9 | 259 |
| Sam Mayer | 90.7 | 5.0 | 18.8 | 12.8 | 13.0 | -171 | 4 | 5 | 259 |
| Carson Kvapil | 85.5 | 7.3 | 14.0 | 16.5 | 13.0 | -115 | 12 | 12 | 259 |
| Jesse Love | 85.4 | 8.5 | 13.3 | 17.0 | 16.0 | -202 | 2 | 9 | 191 |
| Taylor Gray | 84.2 | 15.5 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 14.8 | -187 | 5 | 4 | 247 |
| William Sawalich | 83.7 | 11.5 | 17.3 | 13.8 | 17.8 | -264 | 2 | 0 | 216 |
| Nick Sanchez | 83.6 | 14.8 | 14.0 | 16.0 | 13.3 | -140 | 1 | 0 | 258 |
| Justin Allgaier | 79.3 | 8.0 | 16.5 | 23.0 | 17.8 | -53 | 6 | 0 | 244 |
| Brandon Jones | 76.1 | 11.8 | 10.0 | 22.3 | 14.3 | -195 | 6 | 4 | 259 |
| Christian Eckes | 73.4 | 25.8 | 22.3 | 14.5 | 19.8 | -120 | 2 | 0 | 256 |
| Harrison Burton | 70.3 | 21.8 | 17.5 | 19.5 | 18.3 | -146 | 0 | 5 | 249 |
| Austin Green | 70.0 | 21.0 | 19.5 | 13.3 | 22.3 | -52 | 2 | 0 | 259 |
| Alex Labbe | 69.7 | 20.5 | 26.0 | 19.5 | 20.3 | -59 | 0 | 0 | 216 |
| Blaine Perkins | 65.0 | 19.3 | 23.3 | 18.5 | 20.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 259 |
| Jeb Burton | 64.7 | 23.8 | 15.3 | 20.0 | 18.0 | -71 | 0 | 0 | 259 |
| Dean Thompson | 62.7 | 31.0 | 23.8 | 15.5 | 21.0 | -140 | 0 | 0 | 259 |
| Daniel Dye | 59.6 | 24.0 | 18.8 | 20.3 | 21.0 | -153 | 0 | 0 | 258 |
| Brennan Poole | 58.8 | 29.8 | 23.5 | 22.5 | 22.3 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 234 |
| Josh Bilicki | 55.6 | 26.0 | 24.5 | 23.8 | 24.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 235 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 49.2 | 24.0 | 31.0 | 25.3 | 24.8 | -24 | 0 | 0 | 235 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 48.3 | 20.3 | 28.8 | 25.5 | 24.3 | -91 | 0 | 0 | 259 |
| Ryan Ellis | 47.2 | 29.5 | 24.5 | 25.0 | 25.5 | -217 | 0 | 0 | 255 |
| Ryan Sieg | 46.7 | 33.5 | 24.3 | 30.3 | 25.5 | -6 | 0 | 0 | 211 |
| Sage Karam | 44.3 | 24.7 | 24.0 | 34.3 | 26.0 | -66 | 0 | 0 | 150 |
| Jeremy Clements | 42.4 | 25.8 | 33.0 | 31.3 | 29.5 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 236 |
| Kyle Sieg | 40.3 | 35.8 | 29.8 | 25.0 | 28.0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 259 |
| Parker Retzlaff | 37.8 | 31.0 | 29.3 | 29.0 | 29.0 | -39 | 0 | 0 | 175 |
As stated above, I believe Zilisch and SVG are deserving heavy favorites. While I think Zilisch may be slightly better at Watkins Glen, both drivers yield convincing arguments to be the #1 driver going into Saturday. From a betting perspective, I think there is enough imminent value in the likes of Michael McDowell and Sheldon Creed to warrant betting consideration in futures formats. McDowell will be making a rare Xfinity Series start with Kaulig Racing and is likely the 3rd best road course talent in the entire field. Additionally, McDowell has always performed relatively well in Xfinity Series cars throughout his career which makes me believe he is a legitimate contender going into Saturday especially if something happens to the duo of SVG/Zilisch.
Meanwhile, Sheldon Creed and Sammy Smith are among my favorite underrated drivers going into Saturday. Creed has been really good at Watkins Glen throughout his career and has produced two straight runner-up finishes at the Glen. For Sammy Smith, I mentioned above that I believe he is among the most underrated road course talents in the series. For that reason, I believe both Smith and Creed are strong H2H options and may even yield low-risk/high-reward value in futures formats as well. If you are looking even deeper in the field, Jesse Love and William Sawalich are solid road course talents that are getting relatively big numbers from odds-makers. As a result, I believe both drivers yield value in low-tier H2H formats and potentially in prop bet formats as well.
Note: If there are any significant updates following Saturday’s practice, I will post an update with practice observations below.
***TBD after Qualifying***
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