2025 NC Education Lottery 250 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday April 18th, 2025. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Rockingham Speedway
TV: CW

Earlier today, the Craftsman Truck Series competed at Rockingham Speedway for the first time in more than a decade. Despite the fact that the Cup Series is off this weekend, the return of racing at Rockingham Speedway has piqued the interest of the racing community in an exciting and nostalgic way. On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will get their opportunity to return to racing at one of the sport’s most historic venues. In fact, it has been over 20 years since the last time the Xfinity Series competed at The Rock but all of that will change Saturday afternoon with the running of the NC Education Lottery 250!

As indicated in the preview to the Truck Series’ race, Rockingham Speedway is currently listed at 0.94 miles but races differently at both ends of the track. In turns 1-2, the corners are more narrow and mimic short tracks like North Wilkesboro and Richmond. Meanwhile, turns 3-4 are more sweeping and mimic the likes of normal intermediate speedway racing. For Saturday’s NC Education Lottery, the key will be finding the right balance in the chassis/setup and having a confident driver behind the wheel that can muscle their way through the corners. Unlike the old Rockingham Speedway, it appears that “tire wear” will not be a factor judging by the way the truck race unfolded with the majority of the competition foregoing tires at the end of the race because lap times did not fall off.

Anytime NASCAR’s touring series competes at a venue with minimal tire wear, handicapping becomes tricky because the unpredictable component of strategy becomes a bigger piece of the equation and that will likely be the case on Saturday yet again. With that being said, we fortunately were able to observe drivers/teams earlier today for a solid amount of time due to the extended practice in preparation for tomorrow’s NC Education Lottery 250. Therefore, we will not be going into raceday completely blind which was the case in today’s Truck Series event. For that reason, perhaps there is some reason to be optimistic we can put together another profitable betting card!

Handicapping Rockingham

In Friday’s Truck Series event, I stated confidently that handicapping Rockingham would be difficult because of the track’s inactivity and the lack of experience that competitors have at Rockingham. With that being said, I did point out that handicapping Rockingham could be achieved through examining performance at other similar venues like North Wilkesboro, Richmond, and IRP. Unfortunately, the Xfinity Series only competes at one of those venues (Richmond) which is not exactly the closest resemblance to Rockingham and thus makes the handicapping equation even more difficult to figure out. As a result, I believe our best strategy for handicapping Rockingham will be to examine all performance trends at the 1 mile or less layouts, consider current momentum/performance, and consider what we have seen thus far from testing and practice sessions on the track. With all those items combined, hopefully we can put together another solid betting card!

Practice Observations

The Xfinity Series will not qualify until noon on Saturday which leaves another tight window between the conclusion of qualifying and the green flag. However, track and weather conditions are expected to be very similar to what we experienced during Friday’s lone practice session. From practice, Carson Kvapil emerged with the fastest lap of the session with a speed of 147.779mph. Kvapil edged out teammate Connor Zilisch for the fastest lap of the session and it is also worth noting that all four J.R. Motorsports cars were listed in the top 9 fastest times.

With so much minimal fall-off in lap times, I won’t completely rule out fast lap times as a noteworthy observation. However, I am always more focused on consistency which is the best indicator of race speed. On the lap average charts, Kasey Kahne was perhaps the pleasant story of the afternoon. As most are aware, Kahne is making his first start in NASCAR competition since retiring in 2018. However, the 45 year old is one of the only drivers in the field with experience at Rockingham and that experience showed on Saturday as Kahne led nearly every major consecutive lap category behind the wheel of the #33 for Richard Childress Racing.

Behind Kahne, Sammy Smith, Brandon Jones, Justin Allgaier, and Jesse Love were all putting together very solid lap times. The one thing that I noticed is that after about 15 laps, tires just did not lose much more speed which again will likely open the door for a lot of strategy and track position battles on Saturday. Aside from positive observations, I would also mention the likes of Austin Hill, Ryan Sieg, and William Sawalich as drivers that were further down the leaderboards than most would have expected. Sieg especially had a strong test at Rockingham back at the beginning of the year but the #39 car appeared to struggle with the much hotter temperatures and grip conditions on Friday.

Betting Targets

In terms of betting targets for tomorrow’s NC Education Lottery 200, I must be honest in stating the fact that I believe betting odds are wildly conservative. There are currently 7 drivers that are listed at less than 10-1 betting odds and that group includes winless drivers like Sheldon Creed and Carson Kvapil. Not to mention, that group also includes Kasey Kahne (1st start in NASCAR since 2018) and Connor Zilisch (0 career wins on ovals). Obviously, those drivers in that range of betting “favorites” have good chances to compete for a victory tomorrow based on what we have seen thus far. However, there is simply not enough value in those drivers to warrant betting action based on their expected win probability.

Due to betting odds and the expected no tire wear which will lead to a race for track position and strategy, I believe we are being forced into a very conservative betting card on Saturday. However, I would note that Sammy Smith appears to be the best value on the board at 20-1 odds. Smith has been running well in recent weeks and appeared to have some of the best speed in practice. I thought all of the J.R. Motorsports cars were really strong in practice yet somehow Smith is the only JRM driver listed at better than 8-1 odds. For that reason, I like Smith as a prime target in all formats. I will also likely look for additional exposure to other JRM cars in Allgaier, Kvapil, and Zilisch. Allgaier has been the best car throughout the season but has very small odds. Meanwhile, both Kvapil and Zilisch have been improving with each passing week. In fact, Kvapil has posted back to back top 5 finishes at Darlington and Bristol.

I am hoping that we will see some big movements in betting odds after qualifying that would warrant more action. I have my eyes on guys like Kasey Kahne, Jesse Love, and Brandon Jones; however I simply cannot bet those drivers at their current betting odds. If one of those drivers has a bad qualifying effort and gets better odds after qualifying; perhaps then we can justify some exposure. Lastly, I am also keeping close tabs on Ryan Sieg (really good in the test at Rockingham) and Justin Bonsignore as drivers that could yield value in fantasy and/or prop bet formats. Both guys have higher upside than current betting odds suggest.