2025 Quaker State 400 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday June 28th, 2025. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: EchoPark Speedway
TV: TNT

Last week, Chase Briscoe scored his first win with Joe Gibbs Racing by winning The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway. With the victory, Briscoe became the 11th different winner for the 2025 season. As a result, there are just 5 playoff spots that remain open in NASCAR’s current “win and you’re in” format. Needless to say, there are numerous drivers still searching for their first win of the season to secure their postseason fate. On Saturday, Atlanta Motor Speedway, now known as EchoPark Speedway, provides that opportunity with superspeedway style racing in the running of the Quaker State 400.

Back in the spring, EchoPark Speedway provided one of the most dramatic finishes of the season in the Ambetter Health 400. Christopher Bell was awarded the victory after caution flew on the final lap while Bell battled 3-wide with Carson Hocevar and Kyle Larson. Bell was ahead at the time of caution which secured his first victory of the season and Bell would go on to win 3 straight races in the two weeks following that electric finish. That finish is not exactly abnormal for Atlanta because 2 of the last 3 races have finished during a 3-wide battle and that is a promising fact for bettors looking to cash a big betting ticket!

While these superspeedway style races are very unpredictable and likely will not be decided until the final lap, odds-makers are relatively generous with betting odds which offers a lot of ROI potential for betting cards. As a result, our betting picks will be tailored towards identifying those drivers that offer the best betting value as we chase one of those potentially bigger payouts. Personally, I have always considered Atlanta among the better handicapping venues among the tracks that produce superspeedway style racing. While that does not always guarantee profits, it does go against my typical extremely conservative superspeedway betting approach and further demonstrates we can have a slightly higher confidence level despite this notoriously unpredictable style of racing.

Atlanta – Cup Series Notes

Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and William Byron are all tied for the most wins (2) among active drivers at Atlanta.
Chase Elliott, Daniel Suarez, and Christopher Bell are also former winners at Atlanta.
Joey Logano and William Byron are tied for the most wins (2) at Atlanta since the 2022 reconfiguration and transition to the Next Gen Car.
Ryan Blaney has the highest average driver rating (109.9) at Atlanta in the Next Gen Car.
Ryan Blaney has the most top 5 finishes (4) among all drivers at Atlanta in the Next Gen Car.
Austin Cindric has led the most laps (193) at Atlanta in the Next Gen Car.
Ryan Blaney (6), Kyle Busch (5), Daniel Suarez (5), and Ross Chastain (4) led all drivers in terms of top 10 finishes at Atlanta in the Next Gen Car.
Daniel Suarez has finished 1st or 2nd in 3 of the last 4 races at Atlanta.
Kyle Busch has finished 7th or better in the last 4 races at Atlanta.
Ricky Stenhouse has finished in the top 10 in 3 of the last 4 races at Atlanta.
Ryan Blaney has finished 9th or better in 6 straight races at Atlanta.
Chase Briscoe has finished outside the top 20 in 5 straight races at Atlanta.
Kyle Larson has finished 31st or worse in 4 of the last 5 races at Atlanta.
There have been at least 8 cautions in 5 of 7 races at Atlanta in the Next Gen Car.
Chevrolet drivers have won 5 of the last 8 races at Atlanta.
The eventual race winner has started 18th or worse in 3 of the last 4 races at Atlanta.

Dynamic Averages

When the superspeedways appear on the schedule, we know that it is impossible to handicap these races with a high degree of confidence. However, our dynamic averages have continuously been one of my favorite handicapping tools because they show the drivers who spend more time racing at the front of the field. If we look at things like average driver rating and average running position, we can quickly determine the drivers that are consistently at the front of the field. When handicapping a track like Atlanta, I believe the dynamic averages are even more valuable because it is easier to maintain track position. In theory, those drivers who are able to get out front at superspeedways should have a higher likelihood of staying out front based on the sheer difficulty to pass. Therefore, I believe bettors should examine our dynamic averages very closely as a strong handicapping baseline!

Betting Targets

When taking into consideration dynamic averages, prior Atlanta stats, and comparing those additional handicapping angles to current betting odds; I believe the Team Penske cars continue to stand out in terms of performance. I have been riding the Team Penske cars relatively heavy in recent years which led to us cashing Austin Cindric earlier this year at Talladega. In my opinion, Cindric has become an equally strong superspeedway talent compared to teammates Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano. However, those 3 drivers have clearly been the best drivers overall at superspeedway races in general in the Next Gen Car and continue to deserve betting exposure.

Behind the favorites, I believe our handicapping metrics make strong arguments for drivers like Kyle Busch, William Byron, Ross Chastain, and Carson Hocevar among the group of drivers in the “intermediate” betting odds range. All of those drivers have shown strong superspeedway skill sets and have the desired driving style for making the most speed around Atlanta in hot (loose) racing conditions. Hocevar and Chastain are somehow getting more than 20-1 odds despite the fact both drivers have been in the mix for the victory in recent races at Atlanta. Hocevar has been on an impressive stretch of strong performances despite not having the finishes to show for it. Therefore, both drivers have the type of “value” that we would desire for betting selections at a superspeedway.

I would also list drivers like Ricky Stenhouse Jr and John Hunter Nemechek as deep dark horses that have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggests. Both drivers are ideal superspeedway talents and have enough betting value to warrant betting consideration especially in prop bet formats.

2025 Draftkings Quaker State 400 Optimal Lineup

2025 Quaker State 400 Betting Picks

*FINAL* Austin Cindric +1000 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1800 (.5 unit)
Carson Hocevar +2500 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +2500 (.5 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +4000 (.25 unit)
Ryan Preece +4000 (.25 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +6600 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ross Chastain +265 wins Group 4 (Berry, Preece, Wallace)(1 unit)
Alex Bowman +1200 finishes Top Chevrolet (.5 unit)
Zane Smith +2000 finishes Top Ford (.25 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +1000 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +1200 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)