2025 Tennessee Lottery 250 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday May 31st, 2025. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Nashville Speedway
TV: CW

Last night, we kicked off the racing weekend in Music City by cashing our 2nd straight 30-1 winner with Rajah Caruth earning his first victory of the season in the Rackley Roofing 200. On Saturday, the action continues when the Xfinity Series steps into the spotlight for the running of the Tennessee Lottery 250 at Nashville Speedway. While we hope for another big winner to cash in the Xfinity Series, it is important to point out the fact that the outright betting favorite has won each of the last 3 races. In fact, Cup Series drivers Kyle Larson and William Byron have scored the last two Xfinity Series victories for Hendrick Motorsports and there will be more big names that are among the heavy favorites going into Saturday’s Tennessee Lottery 250!

The notable entries worth mentioning this week surround the likes of Aric Almirola (Phoenix winner) in the #19 with Joe Gibbs Racing and last week’s Coca Cola 600 winner Ross Chastain who will make a start for JR Motorsports with the #9 team. Almirola, Chastain, and Justin Allgaier are currently among the heavy betting favorites going into Saturday’s 250 lap main event. While the current and former Cup Series stars in Almirola and Chastain would appear to be the most deserving betting favorites, Allgaier is the only driver in the field with a former victory at Nashville Speedway. Additionally, Allgaier has also been the most consistent front-runner in the Xfinity Series throughout the season!

With those things considered, Nashville Speedway is still a relatively difficult track to predict from a handicapping perspective. The 1.33 mile oval is fully concrete and is very unique compared to other tracks in the sport. The recipe for success at Nashville usually entails an aggressive talent behind the wheel combined with a smooth handling racecar in the setup department. Obviously it’s nearly impossible to predict the teams that will nail the setup on the racecar on Saturday. However, we do have a lot of handicapping angles to consider which relates to prior performances on concrete surfaces, prior track history at Nashville, and even recent momentum on intermediate layouts. Once we consider all of those different handicapping angles, perhaps we can establish a baseline of expectations.

Nashville – Xfinity Notes

• Justin Allgaier is the only former winner (2022) at Nashville competing in the Tennessee Lottery 250.
• Justin Allgaier has posted 100+ average driver ratings in 4 of his last 5 starts at Nashville.
• Jesse Love finished 3rd in his first career start at Nashville last year.
• Austin Hill has finished 9th, 9th, 4th, and 4th in his 4 career starts at Nashville.
• Sam Mayer has finished 10th, 3rd, and 5th in 3 career starts at Nashville.
• Christian Eckes won last year’s Truck Series race at Nashville.
• Brandon Jones’ best finish in the last 3 starts at Nashville is 13th.
• Justin Allgaier, Austin Hill, and Sheldon Creed have the highest average driver ratings at Dover (most comparable concrete surface) in Xfinity Series competition over the last 3 years.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 2 of the last 3 races at Nashville.
• Ross Chastain qualified 20th and finished 27th in his only Xfinity Series start at Nashville last year.
• There have been at least 5 cautions or less in 4 of the last 6 races at Nashville.
• The eventual race winner has started from the top 5 starting positions in 7 of the last 11 races at Nashville.

Handicapping and Betting Strategy

In yesterday’s Truck Series race, I advised bettors that I would be extremely cautious for Friday’s Rackley Roofing 200 because I thought there would be better betting opportunities on Saturday and Sunday at Nashville Speedway. Current betting odds have the 3 favorites of Almirola, Allgaier, and Chastain listed at less than 4-1 betting odds. While I don’t disagree those drivers should be among the favorites, I do believe there are other drivers that should be considered for the outright win and in other betting formats. As a result, I believe we can be open to the fact that the concrete surface at Nashville could produce another “surprise” winner for the 2nd straight day. For that reason, we will ensure that we have a few dark horses and that our betting cards maintain sufficient ROI that suits racing at Nashville!

Betting Targets

Based on our different handicapping angles, Justin Allgaier gets the #1 spot for the 2nd straight week. I gave a similar sentiment last week with the #7 team and they dominated the race at Charlotte. However, Allgaier failed to get the job done following a botched opportunity to hit pit road on the final caution of the race. Despite the missed opportunity, Allgaier has been the fastest guy in the field for the majority of the season. More importantly, Allgaier is our top ranked driver in nearly all handicapping angles which includes concrete performance, performance at other similar venues, recent momentum at intermediate layouts, and everything else I consider important for racing at Nashville. As a result, Allgaier gets the nod for the 2nd straight week as the most likely driver to beat.

While Allgaier gets the nod, I am not nearly as confident that either Ross Chastain and Aric Almirola deserve their current betting odds. Chastain has never been great at Nashville and I believe he is racing in this event for track time for Sunday’s Cracker Barrel 400 as opposed to chasing another checkered flag. While both Almirola and Chastain are definitely capable of winning, I just don’t believe either driver deserves their current price tag which reflects odds in the sub 4-1 range. Instead, I believe there is much better value and realistic upside in the likes of Jesse Love, Austin Hill, and Sam Mayer. All of those drivers have received fairly decent odds in terms of betting value and also have winning ceilings. Hill and Mayer have both been really impressive throughout their careers on concrete surfaces and are among the drivers that I have pegged in H2H formats as well.

If you are looking deeper into the field for potential fantasy targets or drivers that could shatter their projected ceilings, Nick Sanchez and Daniel Dye are among the names that stand out. Sanchez has been fast all season and has also shown excellent trends on the concrete surfaces. The same could be said for Dye who has flashed speed at different times throughout the year. Personally, I have Dye listed as more of a fantasy racing flier while Sanchez can be considered in prop bet formats with legitimate top 5 upside.

Draftkings 2025 Tennessee Lottery 250 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

***TBD After Qualifying***

2025 Tennessee Lottery 250 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Austin Hill +1200 (.75 unit)
Sam Mayer +1200 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Justin Allgaier -120 over Ross Chastain (3 units)
Sheldon Creed -115 over Brandon Jones (3 units)
Sammy Smith -145 over Carson Kvapil (2 units)

Two Team Parlay

Justin Allgaier +400 wins Rackley Roofing 250
Toyota +180 wins Cracker Barrel 400
Risking .75 unit to win: +975