2025 The Chilango 150 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday June 14th, 2025. 4:30PM (EST)
Where: Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez
TV: CW

For the first time since 2008, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will go south of the border with racing in Mexico City at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez for Saturday’s running of The Chilango 150. While the Cup Series will be making their first visit to Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, the Xfinity Series competed in 4 consecutive races in Mexico City from 2005-2008 which featured big name winners like Martin Truex Jr, Denny Hamlin, Juan Pablo Montoya, and Kyle Busch. On Saturday, NASCAR’s current Xfinity Series stars and a few big names from the Cup Series will try to etch their name into the record books among series winners on foreign soil!

The Chilango 150 entry list features Cup Series talents in Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs, and the hometown favorite Daniel Suarez who will all be piloting equipment that is capable of visiting victory lane. However, this will be the first race for all of the competitors in Mexico City and that is the component that makes Saturday’s return to Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez difficult to handicap. Unlike the Cup Series who had the opportunity at two full practice sessions on Friday, the Xfinity Series had their practices on Friday delayed due to travel issues. As a result, Xfinity teams will only have one full practice session which will not take place until early Saturday morning. As a result, bettors and handicappers will go into raceday without any on-track observations.

While those factors may not be ideal from a preview and race picks perspective, I believe we can establish a pretty good handicapping baseline based on historical narratives on the road courses. Before we dive into analytics, let’s start by giving everyone an overview of Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez which lies within the public park of Magdalena Mixhuca Sports City in southeast Mexico City. The road course circuit features a 15-turn layout that stretches 2.674 miles in length which means fuel/pit strategy will definitely be in-play for both races this weekend. While I would not compare any road courses currently on the Cup Series schedule to Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, I would state that Circuit of the Americas is likely the closest comparison due to both tracks’ complexity at different portions of the layout.

Handicapping and Betting Strategy

Going into a brand new race track can be difficult from a handicapping perspective. However, the Xfinity Series races, relatively often, at road course venues. As a result, I believe we have enough historical data and driver performance trends on the road courses to establish a solid handicapping foundation. Obviously without any on-track observance, our confidence level is not as high as we would desire. For that reason, I believe bettors should be conservative unless we identify significant value that I currently do not see based on current betting odds. Until then, we will look for value in H2H match-ups and possibly attempt to set ourselves up for a better betting opportunity on Sunday!

Xfinity Series – Loop Data

*Data below reflects the last 5 road course races in the Xfinity Series

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Connor Zilisch	144.3	1.0	6.5	1.0	5.5	60	42	71	155
Ty Gibbs	111.0	2.7	3.7	20.7	9.3	-11	24	29	189
Sam Mayer	105.0	5.6	10.4	9.2	8.0	-66	18	14	356
Austin Hill	101.9	8.8	9.0	10.6	9.2	-11	11	35	346
Jesse Love	99.6	8.8	8.6	10.0	9.0	14	6	20	356
Sheldon Creed	90.6	14.8	8.6	15.4	13.4	-18	9	0	322
Justin Allgaier	86.9	11.6	11.6	13.6	15.2	-14	9	6	356
Sammy Smith	78.0	14.6	17.6	17.2	17.2	41	1	2	348
Parker Retzlaff	70.9	17.0	23.0	17.8	19.0	-9	0	0	277
Austin Green	70.9	21.0	18.0	16.2	18.8	-62	2	0	342
Alex Labbe	67.1	20.3	25.3	19.0	21.5	25	0	0	261
Brandon Jones	65.6	20.6	16.2	24.8	18.6	-109	2	0	320
Ryan Sieg	64.2	23.4	17.4	18.8	18.4	36	0	0	355
Josh Bilicki	62.1	22.2	20.6	18.4	22.0	37	5	10	340
Jeb Burton	59.4	25.4	18.2	24.4	21.2	33	0	0	317
Anthony Alfredo	55.9	17.2	22.2	26.4	21.0	-14	0	0	339
Josh Williams	55.9	28.0	24.0	26.4	23.2	51	0	0	276
Blaine Perkins	54.8	25.5	29.8	21.3	26.8	31	0	0	250
Brennan Poole	50.6	29.0	26.6	23.0	24.2	56	0	0	315
Jeremy Clements	50.4	26.2	25.0	25.0	25.0	43	0	0	321
Ryan Ellis	46.3	32.0	30.0	21.8	27.6	-1	0	0	342
Matt DiBenedetto	44.8	26.0	28.4	26.6	26.6	-23	0	0	341
Kyle Sieg	38.5	34.8	23.8	26.4	29.4	-22	0	0	320
Thomas Annunziata	33.7	29.3	34.7	32.3	30.7	27	0	0	199

Betting Targets

Based on the loop data below, it is quite obvious that Connor Zilisch has been absolutely phenomenal through two Xfinity Series starts on the road courses which have both led to wins at Watkins Glen and Circuit of the Americas. In fact, Zilisch’s performance stats have been far better than Shane Van Gisbergen who has been one of the best road course talents in the sport over the last couple of years. With that being said, there is not much value with Zilisch who is currently listed at even money. For that reason, I can only suggest Zilisch in parlay formats and perhaps a strong first-leg to be combined with for Sunday’s Viva Mexico 250.

Behind Zilisch, Ty Gibbs and Christopher Bell are the two best road course talents in the field. The downside to Bell is that he will be piloting equipment with Sam Hunt Racing which is a good step-down from the likes of Joe Gibbs Racing and JR Motorsports. With that being said, I still believe Bell is capable of capturing victory if things fall his way. Behind those guys, Daniel Suarez, Austin Hill, and Sheldon Creed are among the drivers with the talent to win. I would consider Suarez extremely overvalued despite the fact he will be the sentimental favorite. Meanwhile, Hill and Creed are two drivers that have the winning upside but have somewhat inconsistent results at the road courses to warrant some concern. Instead of banking on additional contenders at this time, I would point to the youthful targets like Jesse Love and Christian Eckes as drivers that have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. Both young drivers are sleeper style road course talents with top 5 upside.

Draftkings 2025 The Chilango 150 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 The Chilango 150 Betting Picks

*More plays may be added closer to race time. Check back until “FINAL” status is displayed* Christopher Bell +800 (.75 unit) (early pick)
Austin Hill +2500 (.5 unit) (early pick)
Sheldon Creed +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ty Gibbs -140 over Daniel Suarez (2 units) (early pick)
Christian Eckes -110 over William Sawalich (2 units)
Jesse Love +450 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)