2025 The Great American Getaway 400 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday June 22nd, 2025. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Pocono Raceway
TV: Prime

On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series will put a bow on the racing weekend, in the Pocono Mountains, with the running of The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway. So far this weekend, we have witnessed a pair of mild upsets with Layne Riggs winning the MillerTech Battery 200 in the Truck Series on Friday and Connor Zilisch earning his first oval victory in Saturday’s Explore The Pocono Mountains 250. Pocono Raceway has rarely produced “surprise” winners in Cup Series competition but with the increasing parity among the entire field; I would not rule out the possibility in Sunday’s The Great American Getaway 400!

Last week, Shane Van Gisbergen became the 10th different winner this season courtesy of his victory in Mexico City. Prior to the victory, SVG was outside the top 30 in points but his victory has secured another playoff position. As a result, there are only 6 spots that remain up for grabs for the playoffs. Currently, there are some big names that have yet to visit victory lane this season which includes the likes of Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, and others. Needless to say, there are numerous drivers that are still looking to secure their playoff position. For that reason, we should expect teams to gamble on pit strategy on Sunday and roll the dice in an attempt to give themselves a chance at victory.

From a betting perspective, I have been satisfied with our betting picks this weekend. Unfortunately, we have run into bad luck in both prior races this weekend. I mention that fact because Pocono is one of those tracks where bettors should be able to identify mismatches in H2H match-ups. With qualifying shaking up the starting lineup earlier today with a number of surprise names towards the front and some bigger names towards the back, I believe we will have some betting opportunities in the realm of H2H match-ups again on Sunday. Hopefully, we can avoid the bad luck and identify those drivers that can yield a profit to our betting cards.

Handicapping Pocono

As most are aware, Pocono Raceway is a large 2.5 mile triangle that features 3 distinct corners at opposite ends of the racetrack. The track produces tremendous speed down the long straightaways but features varying challenges with each different corner. Simply put, Pocono Raceway is very unique and unlike any other layout in NASCAR. With that being said, tracks like Indianapolis, Michigan, and even Texas (turns 1-2) can draw some relative comparisons. With those things considered, drivers that are able to maintain high speed through the flat corners at Pocono will be the ones that likely emerge at the front of the field barring pit/fuel strategy. For those reasons, we will put heavy emphasis on past performances at Pocono and consider practice speeds to ensure teams have the correct balance (setup) to maintain speed. From there, we may consider a few other handicapping angles but at much smaller weights in the overall handicapping equation.

Pocono – Cup Series Notes

• Denny Hamlin has the most wins (7) in NASCAR history at Pocono.
• Kyle Busch (4), Ryan Blaney (2), Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, and Chris Buescher are all former winners at Pocono.
• Denny Hamlin has three wins and two runner-up finishes in his last 8 starts at Pocono.
• In the Next Gen Car, the top 5 drivers in terms of average driver rating are: Denny Hamlin (126.4), William Byron (102.9), Tyler Reddick (99.2), Chase Elliott (99.1), and Ryan Blaney (95.6).
• Tyler Reddick has two runner-up finishes and a 6th place result in 3 races at Pocono in the Next Gen Car.
• William Byron has an 8.5 average finishing position over the last 10 races at Pocono.
• Chase Elliott has a victory and three top 10 finishes in the last 3 races at Pocono.
• Erik Jones has two 9th place finishes in the last 3 races at Pocono in the Next Gen Car.
• Christopher Bell has finished 4th, 6th, and 12th in the last 3 races at Pocono in the Next Gen Car.
• Bubba Wallace has finished 11th or better in the last 4 races at Pocono.
• Chase Briscoe’s best finish at Pocono is 15th in 5 career starts.
• Toyota drivers have won 8 of the last 12 races at Pocono.
• The eventual race winner has started outside the top 10 in 3 of the last 5 races at Pocono.
• There have been at least 8 cautions in 5 of the last 6 races at Pocono.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

At the end of Saturday’s sessions, Denny Hamlin emerged with 5th pole at Pocono following a fast lap of 172.599mph. Hamlin will have the opportunity to lead the field to green ahead of Chris Buescher, Carson Hocevar, John Hunter Nemechek, and Cole Custer who were among the top 5 in qualifying. Before qualifying took place, William Byron, Chris Buescher, and Ryan Blaney were among the names that appeared to have really solid speed in practice. Byron led all drivers with the fastest 5 and 10 lap consecutive averages. Meanwhile, Blaney was one of the drivers that I vaulted into the short list because his long run speed appeared phenomenal. Likewise, Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, and Austin Cindric were among additional notable names that looked really good in practice. One thing that is worth noting is the fact that several drivers only ran a handful of laps which made it difficult to determine strengths/weaknesses.

Betting Targets

Based on the pole win, the prior win at Michigan (comparable venue) just two weeks ago, and the fact that he has 7 career wins at Pocono, Denny Hamlin obviously deserves the top spot in the handicapping breakdown this week. Admittedly, it is going to be difficult to have Hamlin in a lot of lineups unless you are using him in parlay formats however I cannot argue with anyone that wants to back the #11. Behind Hamlin, it becomes a bigger guessing game and there is a relatively big group of drivers in the +800-+1200 betting range which includes the likes of Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, and William Byron. To be fair, all of those “favorites” are worthy of betting consideration for different reasons. However, I believe Reddick may be the sharpest pick of them all. Reddick looked really strong in practice and has been one of the best at Pocono in the Next Gen Car.

Behind the group of favorites, Chris Buescher and Carson Hocevar are dark horses that should run relatively well. Hocevar has been excellent everywhere in recent weeks and Buescher has been excellent at Pocono which includes a victory back in 2016. Personally, I don’t like the betting value on either driver but I do expect them to run well. Deeper into the field, I believe Chase Elliott starts to emerge as one of my favorite plays on Sunday. Elliott is hovering around the 20-1 mark despite being one of the best drivers at Pocono in the Cup Series in both the old car and the Next Gen Car. While I believe Elliott offers some consideration in “futures” (win) formats, I really like his value in H2H match-ups. If we move even deeper into the field, Alex Bowman is another driver that I really like in H2H match-ups. Meanwhile, Erik Jones and Zane Smith are some guys that I believe have much higher upside than current betting odds suggests. As a result, I believe Jones and Smith are worthy of prop bet considerations in low-risk/high-reward formats.

Draftkings 2025 The Great American Getaway 400 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 The Great American Getaway 400 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Tyler Reddick +800 (1 unit)
William Byron +1100 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +2000 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +4000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Bubba Wallace -105 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Alex Bowman -110 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Zane Smith +600 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)
Erik Jones +1800 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Denny Hamlin +300 wins The Great American Getaway 400
Erik Jones +125 finishes Top 10
Risking 1 unit to win: +800