2025 The Loop 110 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday July 5th, 2025. 4:30PM (EST)
Where: Chicago Street Course
TV: CW

For the 3rd consecutive year, NASCAR’s Xfinity and Cup Series’ teams will celebrate July 4th weekend with road course racing at the Chicago Street Course. Two years ago, the inaugural running of the Grant Park 165, in the Cup Series, became known as the Cinderella Story for Shane Van Gisbergen. SVG captured the inaugural Cup Series win at the Chicago Street Course in his first career start which essentially kicked off his career in NASCAR. SVG returned to the Chicago Street Course last season and picked up an Xfinity Series win and will have that same opportunity on Saturday when the Xfinity Series waves the green flag for the running of The Loop 110.

Before moving to full-time Cup Series competition earlier this year, SVG became the guy to beat in the Xfinity Series at road course style racing. In fact, SVG scored 3 Xfinity Series wins during a six-race stretch in the summer months of 2024 and will be the outright betting favorite when he makes his first Xfinity Series start of the season on Saturday. Despite those facts, Connor Zilisch is the driver that stands out as SVG’s biggest challenge. Zilisch has shown elite road course skills in just a handful of road course starts in the Xfinity Series and is arguably the most talented young road course talent in the sport. Needless to say, fans and bettors could expect a potential two-horse race on Saturday at the front of the field.

Both SVG and Zilisch have saturated the futures markets for Saturday’s The Loop 110. Both Zilisch and SVG are listed at less than +150 odds with SVG currently receiving odds below even money. Despite those facts and the potential for a heavy favorite winner, I am approaching Saturday’s Xfinity Series race with some optimism due to the fact there are some very good betting opportunities in H2H match-ups and prop bet formats. Additionally, we cannot rule out the possibility of an upset winner because these road course races often produce various pit strategies which could also alter the outcome of Saturday’s event especially if we get a few cautions in the final stage. As a result, let’s discuss some drivers that may be worthy of dark horse consideration and those drivers that can be targeted in different formats as we look to establish a profitable betting card for The Loop 100 at the Chicago Street Course!

Chicago Street Course – Xfinity Quick Notes

Cole Custer and Shane Van Gisbergen are the only two Xfinity Series winners at the Chicago Street Course.
Connor Zilisch has two victories and a lucrative +140.0 average driver rating through 3 career Xfinity starts at road courses (Watkins Glen, COTA, Mexico City)
SVG has won 3 of his last 5 starts in the Xfinity Series at road course venues.
Justin Allgaier and Austin Hill are the only two drivers to finish inside the Top 10 in both Xfinity races at the Chicago Street Course.
Zilisch (140.2), Hill (100.6) are the only drivers that have produced a +100 average driver rating over the last 6 road course races in the Xfinity Series.
Jesse Love (98.3), Sam Mayer (97.9), and Sheldon Creed (90.7) are the only 3 drivers with a +90 average driver rating over the last 6 road course races in the Xfinity Series.
Christian Eckes has posted finishes of 5th (COTA) and 4th (Mexico City) in just two career road course starts in the Xfinity Series..
Taylor Gray has posted finishes of 7th (COTA) and 2nd (Mexico City) in just two career road course starts in the Xfinity Series.
The eventual race winner has started from the front row in 7 of the last 8 road course races in the Xfinity Series.
Chevrolet drivers have won the last 10 races at road courses in the Xfinity Series.
There have been 5 cautions or less in 4 of the last 6 road course races in the Xfinity Series.

Dynamic Averages

I am on vacation this week so admittedly I did not take the time to recalculate the driver averages over the last 5 road course races in the Xfinity Series. However for those that remember, I recently just put together those performance trends prior to the race at Mexico City just a few weeks ago. Therefore, I would point back to that table for a handicapping baseline. In the notes above, I have combined those dynamic averages to results from Mexico City to point out some analytical trends. With that being said, I believe these metrics combined are a solid handicapping foundation going into this weekend’s return to the Chicago Street Course.

Betting Targets

Obviously SVG and Connor Zilisch are heads and shoulders above the competition when it comes to their skill set at the road courses. SVG has been fairly dominant at Chicago in general and Zilisch has won 2 of his 3 career starts. I actually believe Zilisch has the best speed of the two in the Xfinity Series car however Zilisch has not exactly driven clean races which is a concern at a place like Chicago with an extremely narrow racing surface. As a result, I can only trust SVG or Zilisch in relatively low-risk formats. Due to both drivers’ current betting odds, I believe either driver can be used in parlays with the Cup Series race on Sunday.

Due to the narrow racing surface and expected strategy on Saturday, I believe bettors can take some chances towards betting dark horses simply because the odds are incredibly generous behind the favorites. Both Austin Hill and Sam Mayer are underrated road course talents that have enough speed to contend at the front of the field. While Mayer has multiple road course victories in the Xfinity Series, Hill has actually been the better road course talent in recent races and has the better history at Chicago. Therefore, Hill is one of my favorite dark horses going into the weekend. However, we can also explore deep dark horse opportunities from drivers like Jesse Love, Sheldon Creed, Christian Eckes, and Taylor Gray who are all receiving better than 40-1 odds.

Eckes and Gray have been surprise stories in both prior road course races this season with Gray finishing in the runner-up position just a few weeks ago in Mexico City. Personally, I believe Jesse Love has the highest upside this week but all of those drivers have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest and can also be considered in prop bet formats as well. If you are looking for even bigger fliers deep into the field, Kaz Grala and Connor Mosack are a couple of drivers receiving monstrous betting odds but have the capability to perform well. For that reason, Grala and Mosack are potential fantasy fliers and can also be considered in top 10 style prop bets that offer extra value.