Last week, Shane Van Gisbergen picked up his 2nd win of the season on the Chicago Street Course in relatively dominating fashion. With the victory, SVG has now picked up two wins in the last 4 races with both wins coming on the road courses. Those victories have helped catapult SVG from 33rd in the Cup Series standings to an automatic playoff bid and a current rank of 5th in playoff points. On Sunday, all eyes will be on the New Zealander yet again as he seeks a 3rd straight road course victory at Sonoma Raceway in the running of the Toyota/Save Mart 350!
On Saturday, SVG continued to flex his road course skills by winning his 3rd straight pole on the road courses following a fast lap of 96.040mph. The fast lap was more than two tenths better than the rest of the field back to guys like Chase Briscoe, William Byron, Ross Chastain, and AJ Allmendinger who were among the top 5 in qualifying. In the last two races on road courses, SVG has led exactly 50% of the laps and has posted an incredible average driver rating of +140 which is simply phenomenal. Needless to say, SVG continues to prove that he is the best road course talent in the NASCAR world and he will be the guy that everyone is chasing again on Sunday.
Despite these facts, there are some reasons to be optimistic from a betting perspective for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350. The Cup Series has visited Wine Country every year since 1989 which gives most of the Cup Series’ veterans an edge in the experience department, especially over SVG who is making his first Cup Series start at Sonoma. On Saturday, we witnessed that the lap times between SVG and the majority of the leaders were very close in proximity which means more drivers are capable of contending for a victory this weekend based on pure speed. When we add-in additional variables like tire wear and pit strategy which will both be very important this weekend, we must consider the possibility that someone other than the New Zealander will be in victory lane following 110 laps of racing!
Our dynamic averages have been updated following last week’s race at Chicago. As a reminder, these metrics display performance metrics from the last 5 races at road courses, including the Chicago Street Course. As you will notice, SVG has produced incredible results with an average driver rating of 126.9. Not only are those the best numbers that I can recall but SVG is the only driver with a triple digit average driver rating. Christopher Bell and Michael McDowell are the only two drivers that have produced ratings in the 90s before you see a big group of drivers in the 80s range. Perhaps the more important call outs include the dismal performance results from drivers like Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and Daniel Suarez who are all below the 70.0 average driver rating. While I will not go over every notable mention, I do believe that handicappers and bettors should evaluate these dynamic averages before placing selections on Sunday!
Prior to qualifying, the Cup Series hosted an hour long practice that was split into two different groups. In the opening group, Daniel Suarez and William Byron were the only drivers that posted laps in the sub 77 second bracket. Suarez had the fastest lap of the opening group but only posted the 7th best lap overall. The second group of drivers were filled with heavy hitters and was led by AJ Allmendinger who posted the fastest lap in practice. Allmendinger was the only driver to go below 76 seconds on the stopwatch. Ty Gibbs, SVG, Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and Ryan Blaney were all very close in proximity on single lap speed.
In terms of consistency, AJ Allmendinger and SVG were easily the best among the entire field. SVG’s lap times appeared to get better as the practice session unfolded which is not surprising considering this is his first Cup Series start at Sonoma. Behind Allmendinger and SVG, I thought Gibbs, Larson, Bell, and Chastain were among the drivers that appeared really solid in terms of consistency. As an overall observation, I thought that most of the 2nd half of the field was really close on lap times without many extreme outliers. Hamlin, Keselowski, and Alex Bowman were among the names that I thought underperformed in terms of pre-session expectations. Meanwhile Riley Herbst, Katherine Legge, and Justin Haley were among the drivers that appeared to be well behind the 8-ball.
Obviously, SVG is the deserving outright favorite going into this race. SVG has dominated the last two road course races and has made it look relatively easy. With that being said, I do not believe that SVG is worthy of his betting odds which are currently listed at near even money. Even money favorites are extremely rare in the Cup Series because the parity is far too strong to warrant such odds. While we could argue SVG perhaps deserves those odds at unique places like Mexico City and Chicago, I don’t believe the gap between SVG and the rest of the field is wide enough to justify current betting odds. For that reason combined with the generous betting odds the rest of the field is receiving, this is a week where I believe we can chase value with confidence.
The challenge becomes identifying the drivers that have the highest likelihood of breaking through for an upset win on Sunday. Kyle Larson is an obvious 2nd-tier favorite however I simply don’t like how the #5 car has been performing in recent weeks to warrant a selection. So far this weekend, I think AJ Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs, and Ross Chastain have looked the best since unloading. Personally, I like Gibbs the best out of that group because he has been fast at all the road courses in recent weeks. However, all of our handicapping angles are pinging on the likes of Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick. Both drivers have been very strong in the Next Gen Car at the road courses despite the winless streak of Elliott and the recent finishes for Reddick. However, both drivers are getting tremendous value based on my current projections.
Outside of futures, I believe Michael McDowell, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano have some of the sharpest value based on current betting odds. McDowell and Busch legitimately have winning upside at Sonoma which has been proven time and time again. Meanwhile, Logano has a 50% rate of top 5 finishes over the last 8 races which proves he is far better than the current 80-1 odds suggest. Personally, I like Logano better in prop bet formats whereas McDowell and Busch are sharper options in H2H formats. Deeper options in the field that may warrant prop bet consideration in low-risk/high-yeild formats include Zane Smith, Bubba Wallace, and John Hunter Nemechek. All 3 of those drivers have legitimate top 10 upside and yet are receiving nearly 4-1 odds for a Top 10 finish!
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