2025 Viva Mexico 250 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday June 14th, 2025. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez
TV: Prime

In NASCAR’s pioneer days, the Grand National Series experimented with expanding the series outside of the United States with races in Ontario, Canada in 1952 and again in 1958. Despite multiple attempts in the late 1990s to take NASCAR’s top series abroad in exhibition style events, the Cup Series has yet to host another official points-paying race on foreign soil. However, all of those facts will change on Sunday when the Cup Series goes racing south of the border in Mexico City for the running of the Viva Mexico 250 at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez marking just the 3rd time in NASCAR’s history that their premier division of racing will compete outside of the United States in an official points-paying event.

Anytime NASCAR visits a new venue, it is exciting for fans but rather difficult on the betting side of the equation. Simply put, we don’t have any historical data to lean on from a handicapping perspective which raises the level of uncertainty. Despite that fact, the fortunate perspective is that the Cup Series has become very familiar with racing at road course venues over the last several years. As a result, we do have some historical narratives that can be examined to identify the drivers that perform well at this style of racing. We will lean on those performance trends a lot this week to identify drivers that may be able to capture the inaugural checkered flag in the Viva Mexico 250.

Before we dive into road course analytics and discuss practice observations, let’s discuss the racing complex known as Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez which translates to the “Rodriguez Brothers’ Racetrack” in English which is named after Mexican racing drivers Ricardo and Pedro Rodriguez. Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez is a 2.674 mile road course that features 15 turns with varying degrees of difficulty. The track itself sits at +7,000ft of elevation which can produce unique impacts to both car and driver. From a skill perspective, the track requires being very technical behind the wheel and maximizing speed through several heavy braking areas of the circuit. While these conditions favor the premier road course talents in the Cup Series, we cannot rule out the fact that strategy and fuel mileage may be an important part of the equation on Sunday!

Handicapping and Betting Strategy

I have been observing betting odds very closely this week and it is very apparent that odds-makers are being very conservative. Prior to Saturday’s qualifying, I counted more than 15 drivers listed at odds less than 15-1. The betting odds have clearly indicated that odds-makers do not have a strong grasp on who will be the top contenders on Sunday so they have saturated the value from the futures (win) options. For that reason, I will not forcibly overextend our betting card with numerous drivers that fail to produce the sufficient ROI that we desire. Instead, we will put more focus into H2H match-ups this week and use our analytics to identify the major discrepancies from our analytics and current betting odds that have been influenced solely on practice and qualifying results!

Dynamic Averages

Since we do not have any performance data related to Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, I believe the next most-important handicapping tool has to be our dynamic averages which displays performance trends over the last 5 road course style races in the Cup Series. As you will see, Shane Van Gisbergen leads all drivers with an impressive 108.9 average driver rating despite not having any wins in that 5-race stretch. The only other driver with a +100 average rating is Kyle Larson who has two wins during that stretch coming at Sonoma and the ROVAL. While SVG and Larson are known superb road course talents, I would point to the likes of Christopher Bell, Chris Buescher and Ross Chastain who are in the #2-#5 spots. Those names are not necessarily synonymous with road courses but all 3 drivers have consistently produced solid results at this style of racing.

Behind that group of drivers, we see a lot of other well-known road course specialists like Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Busch. Elliott has more road course wins (7) than any driver in the Cup Series however Elliott has yet to win in the Next Gen Car at a road course. Speaking of the Next Gen Car, I would point to our dynamic averages which highlights disappointing performance results from Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric, and Ty Gibbs. All 3 of those drivers are known for having serious road course skills but for whatever reason have struggled in the Next Gen Car at the road courses. Interestingly, both Cindric and Gibbs have been really solid thus far this weekend at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez despite their poor historical trends.

Practice Observations

Earlier today, Shane Van Gisbergen won the pole for the Viva Mexico 250 with a fast lap of 93.904mph. SVG was not necessarily among the fastest cars in practice which means his pole capturing qualifying result was mildly surprising based purely on practice times. In the two full practice sessions on Friday, Michael McDowell led the opening session while Todd Gilliland paced the field in the final session. Personally, it appeared the opening practice was a “feeler” session as drivers got accustomed to the layout. Speeds really picked up in the 2nd session and I believe that session likely holds the most weight in the handicapping equation.

With that being said, Ty Gibbs has been one of the most impressive cars throughout the weekend. Gibbs was 3rd fastest in both sessions and also had the best 10 lap average in the opening session. Behind Gibbs, Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, and Chris Buescher were among the drivers that were towards the top of the charts in nearly every session and category. Kyle Larson, SVG, Christopher Bell, and Joey Logano were all very solid on the speed charts among the favorites. Meanwhile, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, and AJ Allmendinger were among the more well-known names that were trending in the wrong direction following both sessions.

Betting Targets

If I were to rank the top drivers, I probably would have Shane Van Gisbergen as the #1 driver however I don’t believe he is worthy of betting consideration based on current odds. SVG is winless since that breakout win at Chicago in 2023 and simply does not deserve sub 3-1 odds. Additionally, I didn’t think SVG had the long-run speed to justify legitimate consideration based on current value. Behind SVG, I thought Ross Chastain was the next best option. Likewise to SVG, odds makers have been conservative with Chastain’s odds. While I don’t like Chastain’s value, I do believe he has a great chance of making a splash in Mexico City and remains in betting consideration.

Behind the top two drivers, I believe betting odds are pretty precise with Ty Gibbs, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and Christopher Bell among the next group of favorites. Gibbs obviously does not have any wins to support betting consideration and is admittedly having a bad year; however, Gibbs has looked excellent this weekend and his first Xfinity Series victory came via a road course. Personally, I think Christopher Bell has the best value of the group and the same amount of upside. Bell has the most wins on the season, ranks 3rd in our dynamic averages, and has shown speed all weekend. As a result, Bell is definitely in-play based on those indicators and his current betting value.

Deeper into the field, I absolutely love the current value for the likes of Chris Buescher and Joey Logano. Both drivers are hitting on several handicapping indicators including speed in practice this week. Logano is notorious for capturing wins at new tracks and has a much higher ceiling than his current betting odds suggests. Meanwhile, Buescher is one of the more underrated road course talents in the field and is getting excellent value following a poor qualifying effort. As a result, both Logano and Buescher can be targeted in all formats. For even deeper options, I would throw out names like Alex Bowman and Austin Cindric as solid fantasy and prop bet options. Both drivers have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggests and may provide value in low-risk/high-reward (prop bet) formats.

Draftkings 2025 Viva Mexico 250 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Viva Mexico 250 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Ross Chastain +750 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +1400 (.75 unit)
Chris Buescher +2200 (.5 unit)
Carson Hocevar +2800 (.5 unit) (early pick)
Joey Logano +4000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Chris Buescher -115 over Daniel Suarez (2 units) (early pick)
Michael McDowell -130 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)
Carson Hocevar -110 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Kyle Larson +800 finishes Top Chevrolet (.5 unit)
Joey Logano +650 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)
Austin Cindric +800 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +3500 finishes as Top Toyota (.25 unit)