2025 WaWa 250 Race Picks

Date/Time: Friday August 22nd, 2025. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Daytona International Speedway
TV: CW

This weekend both Xfinity and Cup Series teams will compete upon the high-banks of Daytona International Speedway for back to back nights of superspeedway action at the World Center of Racing. While the Cup Series will cap off their regular season on Saturday night with the running of the Coke Zero Sugar 400, the Xfinity Series still has 3 races remaining before their regular season concludes at Gateway in early September. However, Friday’s WaWa 250 at Daytona International Speedway provides one of the best remaining opportunities for those drivers and teams looking for a playoff or career changing victory!

So far this season, the Xfinity Series has competed on the superspeedways in 4 different races which have been dominated by the Richard Childress Racing duo of Austin Hill and Jesse Love. Love won the season opener at Daytona in February while Hill captured back to back superspeedway wins at Atlanta and Talladega. As many are aware, Hill has been one of the most dominant drivers in series history on the big ovals winning 9 superspeedway races over the last 4 seasons. Hill has cashed as the outright betting favorite in 7 of 9 of those superspeedway victories as well which has stymied the ROI potential in these races for the last few years.

However, the RCR duo of Hill and Love were beaten in the most recent superspeedway event back at Atlanta in late June. In that race, Nick Sanchez scored his first victory of the season and we were fortunate to cash a 25-1 betting ticket which remains the largest win of the season in the Xfinity Series. While the RCR duo of Hill and Love remain the biggest threats to continue their dominance on Friday, rest assured there will be additional betting targets that demand consideration and yield big payout potential. Take a look at the details below for the drivers that deserve betting consideration based on their performances this year on the superspeedways and/or those drivers that are underrated from an odds perspective!

Handicapping Strategy

The best long-term strategy for superspeedway racing remains centered around minimizing risk and maximizing profits. This strategy often causes us to look past the heavy betting favorites and target more dark horses because ultimately superspeedway racing is extremely volatile and the underdogs will cash at a higher percentage. For that reason, the long-term strategy is best towards chasing betting value and making the most out of our winners. With that being said, our season has not exactly unfolded the way I expected. As a result, I am not looking for minimal profits this week and therefore will not necessarily focus my betting card towards minimizing risks. Bettors can tail these picks with the elevated risk or choose to downsize their personal units with the understanding this style of racing is very unpredictable.

2025 Superspeedway Loop Data

Unlike most traditional venues, this week’s handicapping strategy can take various forms. We could make the argument that cashing these races are more luck vs. skill. However, I have found more success by identifying the drivers that consistently put themselves in position for victories at the superspeedways. We can identify those drivers that are consistently in winning position at the superspeedway by observing loop data metrics below. The main categories that bettors should place their focus on are the average driver rating and average running position categories. Both of these categories can paint a picture of the drivers that are routinely at the front of the field. The metrics below are a compilation of all 4 superspeedway races this season. While there is some recency bias in these metrics and we cannot rule out historical narratives, these loop data metrics give us the best picture of how teams/drivers have performed this season on the superspeedways.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Jesse Love	113.1	4.0	5.5	6.5	6.0	-11	19	96	565
Austin Hill	111.9	2.5	8.3	15.3	11.3	-44	29	221	516
Sheldon Creed	103.8	8.8	13.0	14.5	11.3	31	12	53	443
Taylor Gray	94.7	5.3	7.5	14.8	10.0	6	11	15	520
Aric Almirola	93.2	14.3	9.0	14.3	10.0	0	7	49	426
Justin Allgaier	91.7	6.0	16.0	13.8	12.8	-21	7	12	444
Sam Mayer	91.7	12.5	10.5	13.8	10.5	-6	11	4	543
Jeb Burton	90.8	18.5	15.5	10.0	13.5	121	13	11	565
Connor Zilisch	89.8	12.3	8.8	23.0	10.8	0	10	42	544
Carson Kvapil	89.6	15.5	11.8	11.5	12.3	49	8	3	565
Harrison Burton	86.4	22.3	16.5	9.3	13.0	9	6	1	565
Nick Sanchez	86.0	15.0	21.5	14.0	15.5	62	18	19	498
Sammy Smith	76.5	13.3	14.3	23.0	16.5	-26	11	2	435
Ryan Sieg	75.3	19.0	18.5	26.3	16.5	70	7	10	412
Leland Honeyman	71.0	25.8	18.8	13.5	18.0	10	14	1	564
Matt DiBenedetto	70.4	26.3	18.5	10.8	19.0	-6	8	0	565
Daniel Dye	69.4	13.8	20.8	15.8	20.8	18	22	0	444
Jeremy Clements	69.2	21.3	16.0	14.0	21.3	-2	22	1	565
Christian Eckes	68.4	11.0	21.3	21.3	16.5	29	13	2	564
Dean Thompson	68.3	23.0	19.3	18.0	20.0	-6	9	0	551
Blaine Perkins	67.0	24.3	23.3	20.5	23.0	2	10	0	518
Brandon Jones	64.6	8.5	18.5	23.0	20.5	-45	7	13	443
William Sawalich	62.6	11.5	16.5	27.5	20.0	-56	5	0	360
Anthony Alfredo	60.2	22.3	26.3	23.5	22.3	60	11	1	432
Josh Bilicki	58.3	30.5	24.5	22.0	23.5	-22	4	0	288
Ryan Ellis	57.7	21.8	23.8	19.5	22.0	-42	3	0	564
Brennan Poole	54.4	29.5	23.5	20.8	24.5	39	10	0	544
Joey Gase	50.0	28.3	22.5	18.8	26.0	-32	4	0	565
Kris Wright	48.0	25.0	20.8	26.8	25.5	-7	4	0	525
Kyle Sieg	46.9	24.3	28.8	25.3	28.0	-28	6	0	452
Parker Retzlaff	45.1	25.5	29.5	32.8	27.5	12	4	0	336
Garrett Smithley	42.3	33.3	21.7	26.0	27.3	-76	3	0	421
Cesar Bacarella	39.3	37.0	35.0	21.5	31.5	12	2	4	234
Mason Maggio	38.5	35.7	28.3	26.7	29.0	-17	3	0	428

Betting Targets

Based on current betting odds, our loop data metrics above, and historical trends at superspeedway style venues, it’s easy to state that Austin Hill and Jesse Love demand betting respect despite terrible odds. Both drivers have a high likelihood of winning any time they compete on the high-banks of Daytona because they are so strong at this style of racing. From an odds standpoint, neither driver makes much betting sense unless you find a way to fit them into a parlay. Even with that strategy, the ROI potential and likelihood for a 2nd leg cashing is more risky based upon this unpredictable style of racing.

Behind the top two guys, there is a massive group of drivers in the 10-1 to 20-1 betting range. When I say massive, I mean 13 different drivers are all listed in the intermediate betting range which is indicative of odds makers being very conservative with opening numbers. Based on loop data metrics and historical narratives, Sheldon Creed and Taylor Gray are drivers that have consistently run towards the front of the field at the superspeedway races. Creed has actually finished 2nd or 3rd in 3 of the last 4 races at Daytona to strengthen the argument that he may finally break through for that first career series win. The same could be said for Gray who has ranked in the top 4 in mid-race running position, average running position, and driver rating in all 4 superspeedway races this year.

Based on historical superspeedway performances, Justin Haley and Jeb Burton have really strong resumes at this style of racing. Haley was among the best in the Xfinity Series for a few years and is reunited with his old team at Kaulig Racing this week for a part-time start. The only downside is that Haley is receiving relatively conservative betting odds. Meanwhile, Burton has much better betting odds and has proven to be one of the best talents in the series on multiple occasions. Therefore, I believe Burton is a must-play in futures and perhaps prop bet formats. Another pivot that also fits strongly on the historical narrative is Aric Almirola who is getting fairly generous betting odds near the 20-1 range. Almirola is a very solid superspeedway talent and provides the necessary ROI to warrant betting consideration.

2025 WaWa 250 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Justin Haley +1500 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +1800 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1800 (.75 unit)
Sammy Smith +2000 (.5 unit)
Sam Mayer +2000 (.5 unit)
Jeb Burton +3500 (.5 unit)
William Sawalich +4000 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Jesse Love +650 wins WaWa 250
Toyota +320 wins Coke Zero Sugar 400
Risking .5 unit to win: +1500