2025 Xfinity 500 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday October 26th, 2025. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: NBC

On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to Martinsville Speedway for the running of the Xfinity 500 which will conclude the Round of 8 and officially decide the four drivers that will have the opportunity to fight for a championship next week at Phoenix. So far, Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe have already secured their championship tickets stemming from victories at Las Vegas and Talladega. While two drivers could advance on points, there are several big names including Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney who are in must-win situations and will be looking to disrupt the battle for those trying to advance to Phoenix on points alone!

From a betting perspective, Martinsville Speedway has historically been a handicapping friendly venue. The Cup Series has routinely competed at Martinsville on a semi-annual basis throughout the history of the series which means there is a lot of historical data for handicappers to rely on for this unique style of racing that accompanies the half-mile paperclip. As a result, bettors have a pretty strong historical baseline to compare how drivers typically perform at Martinsville. We will discuss a lot of those historical stats and trends, compare recent performances on similar tracks like New Hampshire, North Wilkesboro, and others, and lastly observe practice observations from Saturday to establish our final expectations and betting card for Sunday’s Xfinity 500.

Before we dive into our notes and trends, I would mention that Ryan Blaney has won the last two fall races at Martinsville Speedway. Blaney’s victory in 2023 in a similar must-win situation catapulted the young phenom to his first career championship which he won the following week at Phoenix. Following last year’s encore performance at Martinsville, Blaney finished in the runner-up position in the championship following a 2nd place finish at Phoenix behind teammate Joey Logano. While Blaney cannot make it to Phoenix by way of points, it would be foolish to rule out the driver of the #12 machine considering how strong he has performed at Martinsville in recent years and he could easily be the car to beat again on Sunday!

Martinsville – Cup Notes

Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 6 career wins at Martinsville.
Ryan Blaney (2), Kyle Busch (2), Brad Keselowski (2), William Byron (2), Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, and Chase Elliott are all former winners at Martinsville.
Chase Elliott has finished 4th or better in each of the last 3 races at Martinsville.
Denny Hamlin has finished 5th or better in 5 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.
Ryan Blaney (5.6) and Joey Logano (5.8) have the best average finishing positions among all drivers over the last 10 races at Martinsville.
Kyle Larson has finished 6th or better in the last 6 races at Martinsville.
Ryan Blaney has finished 7th or better in 5 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.
William Byron has finished 7th or better in 6 of the last 9 races at Martinsville.
Joey Logano has never finished outside the Top 10 in the Next Gen Car in 7 starts at Martinsville.
Chase Briscoe has finished in the Top 10 in 6 of 7 career starts at Martinsville in the Next Gen Car.
Bubba Wallace has finished 11th or better in 5 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.
Todd Gilliland has finished 13th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.
Denny Hamlin (110.7), Chase Elliott (110.1), Kyle Larson (109.2), Ryan Blaney (107.7), and Chase Briscoe (100.3) have all produced a +100 average driver rating in the Next Gen Car at Martinsville.
Brad Keselowski has finished 17th or worse in 6 of the last 7 races at Martinsville
Tyler Reddick has finished 18th or worse in 6 of the last 8 races at Martinsville.
There have been 7 cautions or less in 5 of the last 7 races at Martinsville.
The eventual race winner has started outside the Top 10 in 5 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.

Practice Observations

At the end of Saturday’s sessions, William Byron was the man on top of the speed charts. Byron posted a fast lap of 98.185mph to win the pole for Sunday’s Xfinity 500. Interestingly, 7 of the 8 championship drivers qualified in the Top 12. The only championship contender that did not qualify well was Ryan Blaney who qualified back in the 31st position. While the qualifying effort for Blaney was poor, I don’t think #12 fans should panic. Along with William Byron and Chase Elliott, Blaney was among the fastest cars in practice, especially on the long run. Blaney has been notoriously strong on long-runs at Martinsville and he appeared to be trending in that direction again judging by the lap times from practice.

Personally, I thought Elliott’s lap times were the best among the field in practice. Elliott was among a narrow group of drivers that had race-winning speed yet the #9 car showed the least amount of fall off. Behind Elliott, Byron, and Blaney, I thought Kyle Larson and Joey Logano were both very competitive on speed as well. Meanwhile, I would throw honorable mentions to guys like Bubba Wallace, Ty Gibbs, and Josh Berry who all appeared to be trending better than most expected going into the weekend. On the flip side of the speed charts, Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe, and Brad Keselowski were among notable drivers that appeared to struggle throughout both sessions on Saturday. Briscoe rebounded with a decent qualifying effort which is not surprising because he has been the best driver this season in qualifying. However, I was expecting Briscoe to show race-winning style speed based on how well he has performed this season and in recent trips to Martinsville. Instead, the #19 was “off” in practice and towards the bottom of the speed charts.

Betting Targets

As expected, betting odds are pretty conservative for the top heavy favorites which include the likes of William Byron, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and Ryan Blaney. Those 5 drivers have dominated the handicapping metrics for Martinsville and are among the drivers currently listed with short betting odds. With that being stated, Elliott and Blaney are my favorite betting targets going into Sunday. Elliott has been one of the best drivers at Martinsville and was arguably the best driver in practice on Saturday. Meanwhile, Blaney has historically dominated the long-run speeds and could easily be the driver to beat on the long-haul on Saturday!

Despite my favoritism for Elliott and Blaney, I must admit that the top 6 betting favorites all have a relatively similar chance to win on Sunday. Therefore, I would not fault anyone for going with other betting favorites or even having a top heavy betting card this weekend! Behind the heavy betting favorites, Joey Logano and Chase Briscoe can be considered live dark horses going into Sunday. Of those two options, Briscoe is getting significant betting value on the heels of a series of disappointing sessions on Saturday. However, Briscoe is hitting numerous handicapping angles to yield value at 25-1 betting odds in all formats. Deeper into the field, Bubba Wallace, Josh Berry, and Ryan Preece are among the drivers that are poised to outrun their current betting odds. All 3 drivers have a solid resume at Martinsville and have much higher upside than current betting odds suggest!

2025 Draftkings Xfinity 500 Optimal Lineup

2025 Xfinity 500 Race Picks

*FINAL* Ryan Blaney +625 (1 unit)
Kyle Larson +700 (.75 unit)
Joey Logano +1000 (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Prop Bets

Average Speed of Race over 75.5 +100 (2 units) *Caesars*
Total number of Ford in Top 10 under 3.5 -120 (2 units) *Caesars*
Josh Berry +1000 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)
Ryan Preece +1800 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +750 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +850 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)