2026 DureMAX Grand Prix Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday March 1st, 2026. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Circuit of the Americas
TV: FOX

NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to Austin, Texas on Sunday for the running of the DuraMAX Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas (COTA). Over the last two weeks, Tyler Reddick has emerged from a chaotic drafting storm to win both the Daytona 500 and the Autotrader 400 at EchoPark Speedway in Atlanta. On Sunday, Reddick will have the rare opportunity to become the first driver in history to win the opening 3 races of the season. Reddick is a former 2023 winner at COTA and will have the luxury to lead the field to the green flag after winning the pole for tomorrow’s DuraMAX Grand Prix. As a result, Reddick will be in prime position to make a run at history!

Through the prior two weeks, our betting picks have been focused around betting value due to the unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing. However, our betting focus will quickly change this weekend and will be more focused on probability as opposed to outright value. Simply put, road course racing requires a very unique skill set and only a handful of drivers are truly “elite” caliber superspeedway talents. To illustrate that point, I would point to Shane Van Gisbergen who won 5 races on the road courses just one year ago. SVG has been the guy to beat at this style of racing and there have been few drivers that have consistently produced enough speed to challenge SVG at the front of the field.

With that stated, SVG has struggled quite a bit at COTA throughout his short NASCAR career. SVG has finished 21st and 6th in two career starts at COTA with minimal driver metrics that represent the dominance that we typically see from the New Zealander. As a result, there may be some rare opportunities to fade SVG this weekend and perhaps target some drivers with better betting value. While we will not necessarily be chasing “value”, I simply believe there may be sharper betting options for Sunday’s race that have a similar likelihood of visiting victory lane! Therefore, let’s dive into some handicapping notes related to COTA and also review other road course metrics to establish our baseline!

COTA Notes

• There have been 5 different race winners through 5 races at COTA. The list of COTA winners are Chase Elliott (2021), Ross Chastain (2022), Tyler Reddick (2023), William Byron (2024), and Christopher Bell (2025).
• William Byron has the best average driver rating (131.6) at COTA over the last 3 races.
• Tyler Reddick has the best average finishing position (4.6) among all drivers at COTA.
• Alex Bowman (5.2), Ross Chastain (5.6), William Byron (6.2), and Chase Elliott (6.3) have impressive average finishing positions through 5 career starts at COTA.
• William Byron and Christopher Bell have finished 1st and 2nd in the last two races at COTA.
• Tyler Reddick has finished in the Top 5 in the last 4 races at COTA.
• Chris Buescher has finished 8th or better in the last 3 races at COTA.
• Alex Bowman has finished no worse than 9th in all 5 races at COTA.
• Kyle Busch has finished no worse than 9th in the last 3 races at COTA.
• Brad Keselowski’s best finish is 14th in 5 races at COTA.
• Denny Hamlin’s best finish is 14th in 5 races at COTA.
• Ford drivers have never won at COTA.
• There have only been 6 cautions combined in the last 2 races at COTA.

Practice Observations

In Saturday’s lone practice session, Michael McDowell paced the field with the fastest lap at 87.253mph. Ryan Blaney, Connor Zilisch, Kyle Larson, and Todd Gilliland were the additional drivers that rounded out the top 5 positions in terms of single lap speed. In terms of averages, Ryan Blaney, Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, Connor Zilisch, AJ Allmendinger, and Michael McDowell were all within very close proximity on the lap over lap averages. Blaney was probably the most surprising name on that list due to his mediocre road course resume. However, the driver of the #12 seemed to be the best car overall during Saturday’s sessions. With that said, I think the main thing we learned from Saturday’s practice is that there was not a single driver with “runaway” speed which means several drivers could be in the thick of the hunt on Sunday!

Betting Targets

I know most are expecting SVG to be among the guys to beat on Sunday but I may be in the rare minority that believes SVG is overvalued. As I stated before, SVG has never been “great” at COTA and his lap times have not exactly been impressive throughout the weekend. Instead, I am putting guys like Tyler Reddick and Ross Chastain at the top of my betting targets list. Both Reddick and Chastain have shown the best performance metrics at COTA and have backed those metrics up with great speed so far this weekend. Chastain is getting nearly 10-1 odds at some sportsbooks which is surprising considering his COTA resume. For that reason, Chastain may be the best “value” play among the favorites.

There is a big group of potential names to consider at the front of the field and I’m not sure I want to lay confidence in anyone. Connor Zilisch has shown terrific road course skills but also makes a lot of mistakes as a rookie. William Byron and Chase Elliott are all strong talents at COTA but have somewhat struggled thus far this weekend. Christopher Bell is another driver with excellent COTA stats but has not shown terrific speed thus far this weekend. Therefore instead of trying to guess drivers that could emerge as contenders on Sunday, I think our better option is to find sharp picks in the form of H2H match-ups. Alex Bowman and Chris Buescher are among my favorite H2H targets going into Sunday. Both drivers rarely show up on the speed charts and do not necessarily always qualify well at COTA. However, both drivers seem to always move forward under race conditions and I am expecting that scenario to unfold for both targets!

2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix Draftkings Optimal Race Lineup

2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix Betting Race Picks

”FINAL”

Tyler Reddick +550 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +900 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1500 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Chris Buescher -130 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
William Byron -110 finishes Top 10 *Odds from Caesars*(2 units)
Alex Bowman +240 finishes Top 10 *Odds from Caesars*(1 unit)