2025 Ag-Pro 300 Race Picks
- Updated: April 25, 2025
2025 Ag-Pro 300 Race Picks
Date/Time: Saturday April 26th, 2025. 4:00PM (EST)Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: CW
Last week, Jesse Love appeared to have scored an impressive victory in the Xfinity Series’ return to Rockingham Speedway for the first time in more than 20 years. However, shortly after the checkered flag fell and Love wrapped up post-race interviews, NASCAR disqualified the #2 car for failing post-race inspection and crowned Sammy Smith (previous runner-up) the winner. As a result, Smith became the 6th different winner among full-time Xfinity Series competitors this season and the latest to secure a spot in the playoffs. However on Saturday, another grand opportunity awaits those drivers seeking a playoff clinching victory when the Xfinity Series returns to the high-banks of Talladega Superspeedway for the running of the Ag-Pro 300.
Aside from the Xfinity Series, it is worth mentioning that the Cup Series will also return to action this Sunday after a rare off week last weekend over the Easter break. From a betting perspective, this weekend’s races at Talladega are far from advantageous for bettors and handicappers due to the unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing. However, these races do offer the potential for big winners which is something we need after a slow start to the year. My betting strategy for the superspeedways has always centered around a low-risk/high-reward long-term strategy and that will continue to be our focus again throughout both races this weekend.
Of course it goes without saying that handicapping these races at Talladega can be strategic or just pure luck. I like to look at handicapping superspeedway races similar to a poker game. Over one hand or one race, the results can be completely based on the luck factor. However over several hands or races, then we start seeing more consistency in analytics and performance measurements which can be used for handicapping purposes. Throughout my career, we have had some huge winners at the superspeedway races and have profited nicely in these races over the long-haul. However, that does not mean that we will necessarily win “often” but we should ensure that our ROI is sufficient to produce high-yield for when we do cash a winning ticket. Ensuring we are getting the best odds for our best picks and maintaining high ROI is essential for long-term handicapping of superspeedway style events!
Talladega – Xfinity Notes
- Jeb Burton leads all drivers, competing on Saturday, with two career wins at Talladega.
- Aric Almirola, Jesse Love and Sammy Smith are the only other former winners in the field. *Both Love and Smith’s wins were from the 2024 season.
- Austin Hill has 8 superspeedway style wins since 2022 but has failed to reach victory lane at Talladega.
- Jeb Burton has two wins and finished in the top 10 in 6 of the last 8 races at Talladega.
- Jesse Love has produced a 110+ average driver rating and lead 28 laps in each of his two career starts at Talladega.
- Sheldon Creed has produced a 90+ average driver rating in all 6 career starts at Talladega. Creed has also finished 6th, 4th, and 2nd in his last 3 starts at Talladega.
- Ryan Sieg has finished top 5 in 5 of the last 8 races at Talladega.
- Brennan Poole has finished in the top 5 in 3 of the last 5 races at Talladega.
- Aric Almirola has finished top 10 in 4 of his last 5 starts at Talladega.
- Chevrolet drivers have won 11 straight races at Talladega.
- There have been at least 20 lead changes in 7 straight races at Talladega
Loop Data
While practice and qualifying results are somewhat meaningless at superspeedway races, I do believe bettors should look at alternatives in performance trends. While I provided some stats and trends above that are strictly related to prior races at Talladega, I also put together loop data metrics over the last 3 superspeedway races to provide a representation of how drivers have consistently performed in recent superspeedway races. While these trends are not guaranteed to continue, it does paint a picture of the drivers that are consistently running towards the front of the field and/or putting themselves in position to contend for victories at these races. As a result, I believe these performance metrics below from the fall race at Talladega and the Daytona/Atlanta races earlier this year should be considered in the overall handicapping equation.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hill | 114.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 19.3 | 8.3 | -25 | 11 | 209 | 343 |
| Jesse Love | 108.0 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 6.3 | -42 | 4 | 71 | 387 |
| Sheldon Creed | 102.1 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 387 |
| Sammy Smith | 96.7 | 17.3 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 386 |
| Justin Allgaier | 95.4 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 15.3 | 8.0 | -20 | 6 | 19 | 386 |
| Sam Mayer | 87.0 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 10.7 | -30 | 4 | 2 | 365 |
| Taylor Gray | 86.4 | 6.3 | 12.3 | 25.3 | 13.0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 319 |
| Harrison Burton | 84.6 | 25.5 | 15.5 | 8.0 | 14.5 | -10 | 4 | 1 | 289 |
| Jeb Burton | 84.3 | 19.3 | 21.7 | 9.7 | 15.0 | 51 | 9 | 4 | 387 |
| Carson Kvapil | 84.0 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 18.3 | 14.3 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 380 |
| Ryan Sieg | 82.0 | 14.3 | 11.7 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 41 | 6 | 11 | 386 |
| William Sawalich | 78.6 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 18.5 | 11.5 | -24 | 5 | 0 | 281 |
| Connor Zilisch | 76.8 | 15.0 | 12.5 | 30.5 | 14.0 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 269 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 75.1 | 19.3 | 21.0 | 29.7 | 15.3 | 34 | 10 | 0 | 357 |
| Christian Eckes | 74.4 | 6.0 | 18.0 | 20.5 | 13.5 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 288 |
| Aric Almirola | 73.9 | 12.5 | 18.0 | 11.5 | 16.5 | -3 | 4 | 1 | 261 |
| Nick Sanchez | 73.2 | 13.0 | 27.5 | 20.0 | 21.0 | 29 | 11 | 0 | 222 |
| Josh Williams | 72.9 | 13.7 | 16.0 | 23.3 | 18.0 | -42 | 9 | 0 | 363 |
| Jeremy Clements | 67.0 | 25.7 | 17.7 | 19.0 | 24.3 | 18 | 11 | 0 | 349 |
| Blaine Perkins | 63.5 | 27.3 | 25.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | -34 | 9 | 1 | 340 |
| Dean Thompson | 63.0 | 21.0 | 19.0 | 21.3 | 22.0 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 373 |
| Parker Retzlaff | 61.8 | 25.0 | 23.7 | 29.0 | 20.7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 372 |
| Leland Honeyman | 60.8 | 27.3 | 28.3 | 14.3 | 22.0 | -2 | 11 | 1 | 386 |
| Brandon Jones | 57.3 | 11.3 | 21.7 | 26.3 | 24.7 | -22 | 1 | 0 | 259 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 56.6 | 31.0 | 29.3 | 13.3 | 25.3 | -15 | 4 | 0 | 387 |
| Daniel Dye | 54.0 | 12.5 | 28.5 | 22.5 | 27.5 | -1 | 10 | 0 | 168 |
| Ryan Ellis | 53.2 | 27.3 | 26.3 | 18.7 | 24.3 | -33 | 2 | 0 | 386 |
| Brennan Poole | 53.1 | 26.3 | 28.0 | 18.7 | 26.3 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 366 |
| Joey Gase | 43.6 | 34.7 | 24.7 | 19.3 | 29.3 | -8 | 4 | 0 | 387 |
| Kris Wright | 40.5 | 22.5 | 18.5 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 249 |
| Kyle Sieg | 40.4 | 28.0 | 34.0 | 26.3 | 31.3 | -35 | 0 | 0 | 274 |
| Garrett Smithley | 40.2 | 32.0 | 21.0 | 27.5 | 29.5 | -27 | 3 | 0 | 258 |
Betting Targets
Based on every handicapping angle alive, we know the Richard Childress Racing teammates of Austin Hill and Jesse Love are the drivers to beat. Both drivers have been incredible at the superspeedway races and are deserving of the title of betting “favorites.” With that being said, I’m not very interested in Austin Hill at his current +250 betting odds. Love is getting more than twice the value as Hill but +600 is far from ideal at a superspeedway venue. More importantly, it is much harder to block runs from behind at Talladega compared to the more narrow racing surfaces at Daytona and Atlanta. In my opinion, I believe that is why Hill has had a much more difficult time getting to victory lane at Talladega and that is why I am not a fan of the short odds on the RCR duo.
As stated earlier, these races are as much about long-term betting strategy as they are handicapping the “best” drivers. With that being said, I am really interested in the likes of Sammy Smith, Sam Mayer, Ryan Sieg, and Jeb Burton all fit the ROI threshold to warrant betting consideration. Smith and Mayer are getting near 20-1 odds and have statistics that are not far off from the likes of Hill and Love especially when you compare average running positions. Sieg and Burton are deeper options but have consistently performed well at the superspeedways meaning both drivers can also be considered in prop bet formats. Obviously, I believe guys in the 2nd-tier favorite category that includes names like Justin Allgaier, Sheldon Creed, Aric Almirola, and Connor Zilisch are all worthy of consideration because they have winning upside. Perhaps 1-2 of those drivers should be on everyone’s radar but I will continue to monitor those guys to see if I can get better numbers in terms of betting odds.
*Other drivers that will be considered for prop bet or fantasy purposes include Brennan Poole, Parker Retzlaff, and Dean Thompson.
Draftkings 2025 Ag-Pro 300 Optimal Fantasy Lineup
2025 Ag-Pro 300 Betting Picks
*More picks may be added closer to race time. Continue to check back until “FINAL” status is displayed* Sheldon Creed +1400 (.75 unit)Sammy Smith +2000 (.5 unit)
Sam Mayer +2000 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +2500 (.5 unit)
Jeb Burton +4000 (.5 unit)
Daniel Dye +5000 (.25 unit)
Dean Thompson +5000 (.25 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Jeb Burton +200 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)Brennan Poole +320 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)
Two Team Parlay
Jesse Love +550 wins Ag-Pro 300Toyota +270 wins Jack Link’s 500
Risking .5 unit to win: +1150
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