The Chase for the Sprint Cup will conclude this Sunday when 4 drivers battle it out in a one race shootout for the championship at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The road to crown a champion has been long, treacherous, but nevertheless exciting. However the excitement is not over yet by any means. Last week Ryan Newman punted Kyle Larson on the final lap to gain a must-have position to advance in the Chase. Take that attitude and multiply it by 100 this week as 4 drivers have an opportunity to capture their first NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship in a one race finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
The four remaining contenders with a shot at the championship this week are Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Newman. Based on odds, Harvick is the overall favorite at +150 which most people expected based on the #4 car’s dominate speed throughout the season. The odds for the rest of the group include Logano listed at +250, Hamlin listed at +350, and Newman who is currently listed at +600. Remember these odds to win the championship are solely between the 4 Chase drivers meaning the highest finisher at Homestead-Miami Speedway will win the Sprint Cup Title outright. Hypothetically a driver could finish outside the top 10 and still win the championship if all other drivers have trouble.
However in a realistic sense these drivers will be gunning for a win in the Ford Ecoboost 400 on Sunday. As good as Harvick and Logano have been throughout the Chase, a win may be needed to take down this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship. Historically Kevin Harvick has performed best at Homestead in terms of average finishing position. Harvick’s 8.08 average finishing position is the best among the remaining Chase drivers and 3rd best among all active drivers. However, Denny Hamlin has the most victories out of the Chase competitors. Hamlin’s two victories are 2nd only to Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle. In fact, Carl Edwards is the only other driver to score multiple wins at Homestead among all active drivers.
Hamlin voiced his enthusiasm at the end of last week’s race at Phoenix stating the #11 team had a great test a few weeks back at Homestead. Therefore Hamlin may not be a bad pick at 3.5 to 1 odds for bettors. Joey Logano has been fast mostly everywhere this season and his multiple wins in the Chase are the main reason he is the 2nd biggest favorite behind Harvick to take down the championship. However, Logano has a very poor record at Homestead with a 20.8 average finishing position in his 5 career starts that includes just one top 10 finish. Even Newman, who is considered the biggest of longshots, has a better average finishing position at Homestead. Newman has posted a 17th average finish position in his 12 career starts that also includes just one top 10 finish.
Obviously historical trends are not always the most precise indicator of an upcoming race but it does give us a good indicator of the drivers that have a knack for getting around Homestead. A lot of bettors may back Harvick this weekend to win the Ford Ecoboost 400 outright. Harvick opened at +450 at CarbonSports and can be considered a fairly strong play based on his own test at Homestead a few weeks ago. If you do take Harvick for the win outright, Hamlin could be a decent play at +350 as a slight cover in case the #4 car runs into trouble. Still the race for the Championship has a long 400 miles to go. If we have learned anything thus far in the Chase it is that anything and everything will happen.