2016 Goody’s Fast Relief 500 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 30th, 1:20PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Today the Sprint Cup Series will attempt to tackle the half-mile paperclip known as Martinsville Speedway when the green flag waves for the Goody’s Fast Relief 500. This afternoon’s event marks the first race in the Round of 8 meaning another victory from a Chase driver would put them into the Championship Round at Homestead. However, there are a number of non-Chase drivers that could spoil the show this afternoon including Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Larson, and 9 time Martinsville winner Jeff Gordon among others. With numerous options available, find out who we think we find victory lane this afternoon as we provide our 2016 Goody’s Fast Relief 500 race predictions!
If we are going to talk about non-Chase drivers, I think Martin Truex Jr may pose the biggest threat this afternoon. After being eliminated last week due to engine failure, the #78 team will look for revenge this week as they seek their 5th win of the season which would stand alone for the most in the Sprint Cup Series this year. Truex earned the pole for today’s race on Friday and he has been fast in every stage of the weekend. Truex does not have the best personal record at Martinsville but has posted two 6th place finishes in his last 3 starts. We have seen this year that Truex has consistently bested his prior statistics at other tracks and today should be no different if they can avoid the bad luck that has hovered over this team at so many points of the year.
For non-Chase drivers, I also would put consideration in the investments of Jeff Gordon and Kyle Larson. Gordon has not performed particularly well in his part time relief role for Dale Earnhardt Jr but Martinsville bears to break that trend. Gordon has been spectacular at the half-mile paperclip with a lucrative 6.76 average finishing position over 46 career starts. I know the bet is risky considering Gordon has not been close to contention this season but Martinsville begs the consideration. I also think Kyle Larson could be a legitimate dark horse especially if you can get a good number on the youngster. Larson finished 3rd back in the April race and he was one of the few drivers that were really good on long run speed in Saturday’s practices. Therefore, I expect Larson to move up from his 11th place starting spot and really be in the mix towards the 2nd half of today’s race.
Outside of those handful of drivers, I think the rest of your threats for the win remain with the Chase drivers specifically the likes of Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, and Kyle Busch. Johnson is the only driver in the series that can even closely resemble the stats that Gordon has posted throughout his career. The driver of the #48 has obtained 8 Grandfather Clocks with a 7.52 career finishing position. Johnson has not been nearly as dominate in recent years but they have found some speed in those Hendrick cars in recent weeks which improves their stock.
I personally believe Joey Logano is the biggest threat to capture today’s checkered flag. Logano is a streaky driver and while last week’s win at Talladega empirically holds no significance towards today’s race; I still like the momentum factor. Logano was in position for the win in this race last year before the Matt Kenseth debacle. Still, the #22 has posted top 5 finishes in 3 of the last 5 Martinsville starts. The drivers that will pose big challenges to Logano are the JGR cars which should not be any surprise. There were points when all the JGR cars looked good this weekend but I think as practices went along that both Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth lost some of the speed that they showed early on Friday.
As a result, I believe that Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin will lead the JGR stable this afternoon. Busch has looked really strong throughout all practices and he won the most recent Martinsville race back in April. Hamlin should always get some notoriety at Martinsville due to his 5 wins and 11 top 5 finishes in 21 career starts. From a pure practices standpoint, the #18 appeared to have the best car from the JGR group. However, practices do not always paint the best picture of racing at Martinsville. Green flag runs can easily stretch over the course of a 100 laps and typically if a car starts off really good for the first 15-20 laps then it will not be good over the latter part of the run. Therefore, I think Hamlin will be just fine over the long run.
2016 Goody’s Fast Relief 500 Race Predictions
Want to bet on today’s race? Get immediate access and the best odds with 5 Dimes
Joey Logano +750 (1.5 units): 435 laps led in last 4 races, been very fast in all sessions, starting outside pole
Denny Hamlin +750 (1.25 units): 5 time Martinsville winner, long run speed looks to be good
Kyle Larson +950 (1.25 units): career best 3rd in the April race, looked to be the best of cars after lap 15, starting 11th
Jeff Gordon +1500 (.5 unit): cover bet, 9 time Martinsville winner getting good odds, starting 10th
H2H Matchups and Props
Kyle Larson -140 over Chase Elliott (3 units)
Joey Logano -125 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Clint Bowyer -125 over Trevor Bayne (1 unit)
Jeff Gordon +525 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)
AJ Allmendinger +3500 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
