2016 Sparks Energy 300 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday April 30th, 3:18PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Later this afternoon, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will roll out onto the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway for the running of the Sparks Energy 300. With only a few Sprint Cup Series stars competing this afternoon combined with the unpredictable element of restrictor plate racing, there is a possibility for anyone to win this afternoon’s event. Who can survive the carnage of the big one? Who can put their selves into position for a win in the closing laps? Find out our thoughts as we provide our 2016 Sparks Energy 300 race predictions!
Even though races at Talladega are seemingly unpredictable, Joey Logano will lead today’s field as the overall favorite entering this afternoon’s race. Logano has been exceptional at Talladega in the Xfinity Series through his 6 career starts. In those starts, Logano has never finished worse than 3rd and in the last 5 races he has posted two wins and 3 runner-up finishes. That is simply remarkable for a restrictor plate track where you can often get caught up in incidents outside of your control. Logano also finished 2nd to Chase Elliott back in the season opener at Daytona. Therefore, we should all expect the #22 to be at the front of the pack this afternoon.
Speaking of Chase Elliott, he, Austin Dillon and Aric Almirola are the only other Sprint Cup Series drivers in today’s field outside of Logano. Elliott proved back at Daytona that he can get the job done and those JR Motorsports cars have had some success in the past at the restrictor plate tracks most notably with Regan Smith. I expect Elliott along with teammates Justin Allgaier and Elliot Sadler to have strong runs today. Sadler won this race just two years ago and has several quality runs at Talladega which could make him a threat this afternoon again.
Another pair of guys that I think have to be considered going into today’s race are the Dillon brothers. Austin Dillon has proved he can win everywhere in this series and he raced well back at Daytona. Younger brother Ty Dillon has not had the big track success quite yet but I feel like the #3 team is starting to come alive after several solid finishes in recent weeks. Outside of the Dillon brothers and the guys previously mentioned, there are plenty of drivers that are looking to be the Cinderella story this afternoon. Young talents like Brandon Jones, Matt Tift, Jeb Burton, Daniel Suarez, and Ryan Reed are all looking to make their names known this afternoon.
I believe Suarez especially has a good opportunity this afternoon along with teammates Erik Jones and Matt Tift. All of those JGR cars have been extremely strong this year. Tift posted the fastest lap in final practice which is just evidence of the power under the hood of those JGR machines. Obviously, practice times mean next to nothing at a place like Talladega. However, it makes thinks much easier when you have an advantage under the hood. Expect those cars to run well if they can stay out of trouble.
So how do we handicap a race at Talladega when there are so many unknowns with restrictor plate races? There is no doubt that these races are tough to predict. However, we do know guys like Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon, and Joey Logano should be the leaders of the pack this afternoon. Therefore pick a horse or two and find ways to make it valuable possibly with parlays. Then do not be afraid to add a few longshots to your roster in case Cinderella does go to victory lane. Low risk/high reward scenarios are the key for betting restrictor plate races! Good luck today everyone!
2016 Sparks Energy 300 Race Predictions
Austin Dillon +625 (1.25 units)
Ty Dillon +1000 (.75 unit)
Elliot Sadler +1800 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +2300 (.5 unit)
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