2016 ToyotaCare 250 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday April 23rd, 12:46PM (EST) at Richmond International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The Xfinity Series will take center stage tomorrow afternoon at Richmond International Raceway with the running of the ToyotaCare 250. Among the storylines for tomorrow’s event includes the 2nd straight ‘Dash 4 Cash’ feature that will award $100,000 to the top qualifying Dash 4 Cash driver. Therefore just like last week’s Bristol race, the field will be set into two different Heat races before things will be decided by a 140 lap main event. So get ready for some more great racing and follow us as we provide our 2016 ToyotaCare 250 race predictions!
There is quite a level of uncertainty heading into Saturday’s ToyotaCare 250. Earlier today rain washed out both scheduled practices meaning teams have still not had the opportunity to see how their cars may perform on the track. Qualifying has already been cancelled for Saturday as team’s will lineup based on owner’s points. Instead, NASCAR has allowed the Xfinity Series to get in a 50 minute practice early tomorrow morning in hopes to provide some type of warmup before they turn the field loose for the heats races and main event.. Therefore, tomorrow’s practice session will be very important as teams will have just a small window to see how their cars perform and make the necessary changes to get their cars better just hours before the green flag waves for the first heat race.
Without any practice speeds to analyze, we really have to look at recent history and track history to gauge predictions on how this race may unfold. Still, we will wait for tomorrow’s lone practice session to conclude before we finalize our betting lineup just to ensure our initial thoughts are in-line with practice speeds to some degree. Obviously if you look at track history, Brad Keselowski and Dale Earnhardt Jr will jump out as the only previous race winners that will be participating in tomorrow’s race. Both Keselowski and Earnhardt have won 3 times at Richmond in the Xfinity Series. Earnhardt’s 3 victories have come in just 5 starts but that was quite some time ago when he was competing in the series full-time and shortly thereafter with the most recent victory coming all the way back in 2002. Keselowski on the other hand has won each of his last 2 starts including the most recent race here last September.
Keselowski actually leads all drivers as the overall favorite for tomorrow’s race. However, the #22 team has not been near as powerful in the Xfinity Series thus far this year which leads me to believe there is no clear favorite. Obviously, Keselowski should be among the frontrunners for the victory but I that #22 Discount Tire Ford has not been near as dominate this year compared to recent years. Instead, I think guys like Austin Dillon, Daniel Suarez, and Erik Jones should be poised to threaten Keselowski and Earnhardt for the victory. I believe Erik Jones may be the guy to hang your hat on especially after a really impressive and confidence building win last week at Bristol. Jones has raced well at Richmond in both of last year’s races and he is really starting to put the pieces together. I fully expect the #20 to be “the” guy to beat tomorrow afternoon.
I will have my eyes on several drivers during tomorrow’s 50 minute practice session to see what type of speed they show early in the day. Two guys in particular that I have pegged for potential H2H plays are Darrell Wallace Jr and perhaps more from an intruiging standpoint will be Cole Custer. I have been a fan of Custer for quite some time and believe I was one of the first to bring his name up before most learned his potential in the Camping World Truck Series. Custer will make his first Xfinity Series start tomorrow and while the chances of him winning are extremely limited; I do think he has the ability to run surprisingly well and he will have the opportunity to be in a pretty fast #5 car with JR Motorsports.
Darrell Wallace Jr will also be on my radar for a potential H2H play in lower tier match-ups. Bubba has run well at Richmond in the past but has not had the finishes to show for it (10th, 12th, and 14th). However, Richmond is a place where I feel like he can run well as this track fits his driving style and he may benefit from a rather weaker than normal field tomorrow as well. I will have my eyes on both guys tomorrow in the early practice and if they show some promising signs then I just may find a way to add them to my betting card in some type of fashion!
2016 ToyotaCare 250 Race Picks
Two Team Parlays
Erik Jones +195 wins ToyotaCare 250
Slot 2 Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD
Brad Keselowski +220 wins ToyotaCare 250
Slot 2 Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD
H2H Matchups
Brad Keselowski -120 vs. Austin Dillon (3 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr -110 vs. Daniel Suarez (2 units)
Darrell Wallace Jr -105 vs. Brendan Gaughan (2 units)