2021 WAWA 250 Race Picks
- Updated: August 26, 2021
Friday August 27th, 7:30PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will go under the lights this Friday at the high-banks of Daytona International Speedway with the running of the WAWA 250. Unlike the Cup Series which will conclude their regular season Saturday night in the Coke Zero Sugar 400, the Xfinity Series still has 4 races remaining before their playoffs begin at Las Vegas. Though this will not be drivers’ last chance to earn a playoff bid, Daytona International Speedway provides the type of racing that will yield the opportunity for a surprise winner to solidify their playoff chances.
Back in February, the reigning series champion in Austin Cindric seemingly dominated the “Beef It’s What’s For Dinner 300.” Cindric led a race-high 28 laps and posted the highest average rating (114.6) in the winning performance. Cindric backed up that winning performance with another impressive run at Talladega in April. Cindric officially recorded a runner-up finish in the rain-shortened Ag-Pro 300 but still finished with the highest rating (121.4) for the 2nd straight superspeedway event. Personally, I usually avoid the “favorites” at the superspeedway races because the risk/reward relationship is usually disadvantageous. However, I will give that philosophy additional thought this week based on Cindric’s extremely strong performances in the prior races this season at Daytona and Talladega.
Ultimately, superspeedway racing should be a combination of minimizing overall exposure due to unpredicted volatility and yet placing money in positions that compensate for the inherited risk with tremendous potential. I was lucky enough to bank on Jeb Burton’s rain-shortened win at Talladega at 16-1 odds. Though it was Burton’s first career victory, I identified the Kaulig Racing driver as an underrated superspeedway threat. While we can discuss former winners and drivers with former superspeedway wins, we should also be looking at the drivers that have shown the ability to run upfront at the superspeedways that may find themselves in position to go after a victory in the closing laps. Since we have to ensure optimal ROI with our selections, we have to ensure we have the sharpest dark horses on our betting lineup.
Loop Data
I am not going to spend a lot of time discussing the loop data metrics below because it is only a two-race sample size. However, I did want to combine both the Daytona and Talladega races to show a performance representation. In preparation for Friday’s WAWA 250, I don’t think we should pay much attention to average finishes since they are dependent on survival and greatly influenced by outliers due to the sample size. However, I do believe we can take into consideration the “average position” category to show drivers that have consistently run towards the front of the field. When looking at that field, I noticed names like Myatt Snider, Brett Moffitt, and Harrison Burton which showed surprisingly strong average positions compared to my prenotion expectations. Therefore, I will leverage this category into this week’s betting considerations.
| Driver | DRIVER RATING | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Cindric | 117.9 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 52 | 212 |
| Harrison Burton | 106.6 | 5.5 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 7 | -13 | 1 | 34 | 212 |
| Jeb Burton | 100.9 | 8 | 12 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 212 |
| Daniel Hemric | 98.7 | 7 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 9 | -17 | 1 | 18 | 212 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 96.3 | 21 | 8.5 | 4 | 11.5 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 212 |
| Brett Moffitt | 95.2 | 14 | 9 | 9.5 | 11 | 20 | 5 | 6 | 212 |
| Brandon Brown | 93.8 | 16 | 6 | 6.5 | 11.5 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 212 |
| Myatt Snider | 92.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 8 | 9.5 | -25 | 2 | 3 | 212 |
| Justin Haley | 92.4 | 4 | 3 | 18.5 | 9.5 | -20 | 2 | 9 | 194 |
| Riley Herbst | 86.0 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 15 | 12.5 | -11 | 6 | 12 | 195 |
| Ryan Sieg | 85.5 | 15 | 14 | 18 | 20.5 | 58 | 7 | 24 | 171 |
| Noah Gragson | 85.4 | 4.5 | 7 | 19 | 14 | 23 | 11 | 8 | 166 |
| Justin Allgaier | 79.7 | 5 | 10.5 | 28.5 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 194 |
| Jeremy Clements | 76.5 | 15 | 10.5 | 18 | 15 | -1 | 6 | 0 | 210 |
| Josh Berry | 76.1 | 7.5 | 13 | 29 | 13.5 | -5 | 2 | 0 | 194 |
| Joe Graf, Jr. | 73.6 | 26.5 | 27.5 | 22 | 19.5 | -13 | 6 | 0 | 210 |
| Brandon Jones | 72.4 | 6.5 | 25.5 | 37.5 | 17.5 | -28 | 3 | 3 | 144 |
| Timmy Hill | 70.0 | 32 | 24.5 | 16.5 | 23 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 211 |
| Michael Annett | 68.3 | 11 | 16.5 | 34 | 19.5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 162 |
| Tommy Joe Martins | 66.0 | 22.5 | 25 | 17.5 | 23.5 | -42 | 6 | 0 | 204 |
| Landon Cassill | 65.8 | 32.5 | 23 | 21.5 | 23 | -20 | 6 | 0 | 204 |
| Jason White | 65.3 | 40 | 20 | 24.5 | 27.5 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 173 |
| Colby Howard | 55.6 | 28.5 | 22.5 | 27 | 25 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 165 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 55.1 | 29 | 23 | 29.5 | 27 | -6 | 3 | 0 | 164 |
| Ryan Vargas | 52.9 | 30 | 27 | 24 | 26.5 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 212 |
| Alex Labbe | 49.3 | 24.5 | 35 | 30.5 | 28.5 | -10 | 1 | 0 | 150 |
| Kyle Weatherman | 47.8 | 27.5 | 33.5 | 19 | 27.5 | -51 | 1 | 0 | 212 |
| Josh Williams | 47.3 | 16 | 29 | 24.5 | 27.5 | -5 | 3 | 0 | 210 |
| Bayley Currey | 47.0 | 27.5 | 31.5 | 36.5 | 32.5 | -35 | 2 | 0 | 109 |
| Gray Gaulding | 45.7 | 29.5 | 24 | 34 | 27.5 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 162 |
| Jesse Little | 43.4 | 29 | 34 | 21.5 | 29.5 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 212 |
| Matt Mills | 42.5 | 31.5 | 35 | 20.5 | 30 | 42 | 2 | 0 | 212 |
| Caesar Bacarella | 36.4 | 33 | 32.5 | 25 | 32 | -34 | 0 | 0 | 206 |
Possible Betting Targets
The Xfinity Series entry list is rather interesting this week. Cup Series rookie and last year’s Xfinity Series standout Chase Briscoe will join the party driving for the #99 with B.J. McLeod Motorsports. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell will make his 2nd Xfinity Series start of the season in the #54 for Joe Gibbs Racing. Bell captured a victory in his only start of the season back at Loudon and has a pretty solid superspeedway resume in the series with finishes of 3rd, 6th, and 3rd in his last 3 starts at Daytona. From an odds standpoint, neither Briscoe nor Bell are exactly overvalued which is somewhat surprising. Despite slight equipment concerns, Briscoe is listed at 12-1 odds while Bell is currently listed in the 8-1 range in one of the top rides in the sport. As a result, I cannot deny Bell is an appetizing choice despite the fact I try to stay away from outright favorites at these events.
If you remember my prior Xfinity Series superspeedway previews from earlier this year, you may recall that I believe Harrison Burton is a really good superspeedway talent. Despite failing to capture a victory yet at Daytona or Talladega, I still believe Burton is among the series best drivers at this particular style of racing. Obviously, Austin Cindric remains the most realistic threat going into Friday and I would probably label Justin Haley the best superspeedway talent. However, I still believe Harrison Burton belongs in the upper echelon of drivers for this particular skill set. If you don’t believe me, just look at the results. In 3 career starts at Daytona, Burton has produced finishes 2nd, 5th, and 3rd which is fairly incredible.
Another driver that is red-hot that is an under-appreciated superspeedway talent is none other than AJ Allmendinger. Allmendinger captured an impressive win at Michigan last week and a Cup Series win the prior week at Indianapolis. Do not be surprised, if he has another chance Friday evening to continue the hot streak especially given Kaulig Racing’s success at the superspeedways. Aside from the popular and well-established names, we have to discuss possible long shot winners that have the dark horse betting potential that everyone craves for Daytona. Jeb Burton was one of the drivers that stood out before the Talladega race but perhaps the secret has now been revealed. Other drivers that have shown similar qualities at the superspeedway races include Brett Moffitt, Myatt Snider, and Ryan Sieg.
Ryan Sieg is not going to show up on any indicators with strong averages. However, I have witnessed a lot of improvement in his superspeedway performance in recent years. Sieg actually led 23 laps back in the February race and looked really good in managing the front of the field. For Myatt Snider, he seems to have the much-needed balance of being aggressive but not overly aggressive. Snider has done a really good job at positioning himself to have an opportunity in these races and that is exactly what you need from a lottery style betting pick. Lastly, my favorite dark horse goes to Brett Moffitt if we are talking true long shots. Moffitt has been excellent at the superspeedways and while we know the equipment is not great; Moffitt has the experience and decision making to capitalize on the opportunity if given the chance in the closing laps.
Draftkings WAWA 250 Optimal Lineup
2021 WAWA 250 Race Picks
*Final*
Christopher Bell +800 (.75 unit)Harrison Burton +1200 (.75 unit)
Brett Moffitt +2500 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +2500 (.5 unit)
Myatt Snider +2500 (.5 unit)
Brandon Brown +5000 (.25 unit)
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