2024 GEICO 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday April 21st, 2024. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: FOX

On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway for the running of the GEICO 500. One week ago, Chase Elliott ended a 42 race winless streak after capturing victory at Texas Motor Speedway with the running of the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400. Elliott officially became the 6th different race winner of the season and helped cash our biggest winning ticket of the season. For Sunday’s GEICO 500, we will have another prime opportunity to experience a first-time winner and perhaps another opportunity to cash a big winning ticket!

In recent years, the Next Gen Car has yielded extreme parity among the Cup Series for a variety of reasons mostly related to architecture and equipment. That parity has yielded a greater quantity of different winners more so than any other era in NASCAR history. With that being said, many would expect that the variances of winners would be reflective in the finishes at Talladega which has been the ultimate wildcard venue throughout Cup Series’ history. However, the reality is that the last 4 winners at Talladega, in the Next Gen Car, have all been among the top names/talents in the sport. Despite the parity level in today’s Cup Series, we have yet to produce a real surprise winner at Talladega in the Next Gen Car and that leads into numerous questions surrounding Sunday’s GEICO 500.

The last 4 winners at Talladega have yielded winning names like Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, and Ryan Blaney. All of those drivers closed in the category of betting favorites to semi-favorites. I make that point because it appears that the performance metrics at the superspeedways have trended in favor of the drivers despite the level of parity which would traditionally yield surprise winners. While we are still likely to have a surprise winner in the near future, I do believe our dynamic averages and recent superspeedway performance trends should yield reliable metrics towards potential betting options and that will be our focus for Sunday’s GEICO 500!

Handicapping Strategy

As stated in Saturday’s Xfinity Series preview, I would remind everyone that I rarely place H2H wagers at the superspeedways. H2H match-ups are most often decided on attrition rather than performance because of the high likelihood of multi-car accidents and that is simply not favorable for bettors. With that being said, we will apply a low-risk betting strategy towards futures and prop bets with multiple drivers for an ROI efficient betting card. Admittedly, Talladega is not a friendly handicapping track simply because these races are unpredictable in nature. For that reason, our handicapping picks must shift towards a long-term efficient betting strategy with betting value being the focus for all of our selections.

Talladega – Betting Notes

• Brad Keselowski leads all drivers with 6 career victories at Talladega.
• Ryan Blaney (3), Joey Logano (3), Denny Hamlin (2), Chase Elliott (2), Kyle Busch (2), Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr are all former winners at Talladega.
• Ryan Blaney has the best average finishing position (7.2) among all drivers over the last 10 races. Blaney has two runner-up finishes and a win in his last 3 starts at Talladega.
• Erik Jones has finished 9th or better in 4 of the last 5 starts at Talladega.
• Daniel Suarez has finished 11th or better in each of his last 3 starts at Talladega.
• Todd Gilliland has finished 12th or better in each of his last 3 starts at Talladega.
• Bubba Wallace has led the 3rd most (74) laps at Talladega over the last 6 races, trailing only Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin.
• Kyle Larson has just one top 5 finish in 18 career starts at Talladega.
• Alex Bowman has just one top 5 finish in 16 career starts at Talladega.
• Ford drivers have won 11 of the last 17 races at Talladega. *Note – Ford drivers are winless this season.
• The last 6 race winners have started outside of the top 10.

Dynamic Averages

On Saturday, Michael McDowell somewhat surprisingly won the pole for Sunday’s GEICO 500 with a fast lap of 182.022mph. McDowell was followed by several somewhat surprising names that included Austin Cindric, Todd Gilliland, Kyle Busch, and Austin Dillon who qualified in the top 5 positions. With that being said, I don’t really put any stock into qualifying results at Talladega because single lap speed and race speed are two very different things. More importantly, it’s more about surviving 500 miles and being in position for a victory as opposed to trying to be the fastest car in the field. As a result, our handicapping will be focused on those drivers that have a knack of performing well and getting finishes at the superspeedway races.

If we observe our dynamic averages which highlights the last 5 Cup Series races at superspeedways, we can see very quickly that teammates Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano lead the best average driver rating category by a fairly wide margin. In my personal opinion, Blaney and Logano are the two best superspeedway talents in the field and are both 3-time winners at Talladega. Behind the Team Penske duo, we see a mix of expected names and unexpected names. Perhaps some of the more surprising unexpected names are Austin Cindric, Chris Buescher, and Kyle Larson who are among the top 6 drivers in average rating. I put Larson into that category because he has historically been awful at the superspeedways with a ton of DNFs throughout his career.

However, Larson’s average rating supports the notion that he has often raced much better than where he has finished. For Cindric and Buescher, I am not surprised that either driver is so high on this list because both guys are underrated superspeedway talents. I don’t think Cindric gets enough credit for his superspeedway skill set despite being a Daytona 500 Champion. Meanwhile on the other end of the spectrum, I would point to a group of drivers that consist of well-known names like Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain, and Austin Dillon who have some of the worst averages in the field. Dillon has had a lot of success at the superspeedways but his finishes have been very inconsistent. More importantly, Dillon is often overvalued any time the superspeedways roll around because of his past success.

Betting Targets

While we can certainly make arguments for nearly every driver in the field, we must ensure our betting cards maintain sufficient ROI to satisfy the ideal strategy described above. Typically at superspeedways, I shy away from overall favorites and will often look for drivers with better value. However if we construct our betting cards with a lot of low-risk/high-reward options, we can potentially have room for 1-2 favorites on our betting card. Whatever strategy people take, I think everyone should have exposure to Ryan Blaney and/or Joey Logano. I strongly believe both drivers are the best at this style of racing and the fact they are teammates, who could potentially work together, strengthens the argument for both drivers.

Beyond the Logano/Blaney duo, I’m not sure if there are any true betting favorites that justify their current betting odds. I was hoping to get a better number on Kyle Busch given his performance at superspeedways with Richard Childress Racing but Rowdy’s odds are also pretty saturated. Despite my distaste for the odds, I do like Rowdy’s chances on Sunday. If we go deeper into the field, I believe we start finding solid value with guys like Martin Truex Jr, Austin Cindric, and Erik Jones. I know those names may not scream confidence but I do believe there is solid value for each driver. Cindric is another Team Penske driver that has yielded excellent stats in our dynamic averages. Erik Jones is a former superspeedway winner that consistently makes it to the finish (knock on wood). Meanwhile, Martin Truex Jr has never won at a superspeedway but has performed extremely well at the superspeedways in the Next Gen Car. In fact, I believe Truex has more stage wins than any driver in the Next Gen Car at the superspeedways.

If anyone is looking for potential lottery winners in the form of futures or prop bets, I would consider names like Todd Gilliland, Justin Haley, and Josh Berry are all worthy of consideration. All 3 of those drivers have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. Gilliland led a ton of laps at Atlanta earlier this year. Haley has always been a strong superspeedway driver despite being in bottom-tier equipment and has a Daytona win on his resume. Meanwhile, Berry has been completely disrespected from odds makers and is very capable of a quality performance despite what current season trends may suggest. I believe bettors can have some light exposure to those drivers simply based on the upside that odds allow.

2024 GEICO 500 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Joey Logano +1000 (.75 unit)
Kyle Busch +1600 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +2200 (.5 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +2500 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +2500 (.5 unit)
Austin Cindric +2800 (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +4000 (.25 unit)
Josh Berry +7500 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Chase Briscoe +600 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +1000 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Shane Van Gisbergen +450 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)