2022 ToyotaCare 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday April 2nd, 2022. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Richmond Raceway
TV: FS1

After sharing the Saturday afternoon stage with the Camping World Truck Series for the past two weekends, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will get the sole spotlight this Saturday when they kick off the racing weekend at Richmond Raceway. Last week, AJ Allmendinger scored his first victory of the season at Circuit of the Americas to become the 5th different winner through the first 6 races in the Xfinity Series and bettors should be prepared for that trend to potentially continue when the green flag waves for the ToyotaCare 250!

Justin Allgaier (2) and Noah Gragson have won the last 3 races at Richmond Raceway in the Xfinity Series and both drivers are also the only former winners in Saturday’s field. Statistically, Richmond has been one of Allgaier’s best tracks with two victories and 8 top 5 finishes through 21 career starts. While this should be an event where Allgaier could compete for another victory, Saturday’s ToyotaCare 250 represents a relatively stacked entry list of Xfinity Series regulars that have outstanding short track talent in the likes of Noah Gragson, Ty Gibbs, and Josh Berry. Additionally, the respected talent in John Hunter Nemechek will get a crack at Richmond in the #18 car with Joe Gibbs Racing which adds another threat for a victory. Needless to say, there are several drivers that deserve legitimate consideration for Saturday’s checkered flag.

Betting Strategy

As much as I enjoy betting the lower tier events in NASCAR which typically produces sharp opportunities, I believe Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 will be the best betting race of the weekend. As mentioned above, I believe there are numerous drivers that could compete and perhaps we should hold out for practice observations early Saturday morning before confirming futures (win) bets. For that reason, I will be relatively cautious with the overall risk in Saturday’s race and look to exploit H2H match-ups for our main betting focus.

Betting Targets

As mentioned above, Justin Allgaier should be given more attention this week compared to most other tracks on the schedule. The problem with that argument is that Allgaier has been placed against the other betting favorites this week in terms of H2H match-ups which means his best value is likely in the form of futures. Personally, I believe Noah Gragson and John Hunter Nemechek are going to be the drivers to beat on Saturday.

Gragson has been on an unbelievable pace to start the season and has arguably been the best driver in the series despite Ty Gibbs’ leading two victories. Meanwhile, Nemechek has always performed well at Richmond and even took car owner Sam Hunt (#26) to a 3rd place finish last season which was far better than the #26 team could have imagined. Nemechek’s opportunity with the #18 team on Saturday will be his best equipment opportunity in his career at Richmond and I believe it will pay dividends. Again, I am holding out on most futures bets to play a conservative approach following Saturday’s practice. However as it currently stands, Nemechek and Gragson get my votes of confidence.

In terms of sharp H2H value, give me Brandon Brown and Riley Herbst as the best drivers that should exceed expectations. Herbst has a pair of notable Richmond performances on his resume and has actually been fast all season despite rarely getting the finishes to show for it. Meanwhile, Brandon Brown is one of those drivers that is often listed in bottom-tier match-ups and that could be very beneficial for Richmond where he typically runs well. Brown does not have the elite equipment like many of the names previously mentioned but Richmond is one of those venues where he could flirt with a top 10 style performance. For a bottom-tier driver, that is about as good as you can ask for.

Practice Observations

*Update* In practice earlier this morning, Ty Gibbs basically swept the show with the fastest lap, fastest overall average, and then backed it up by winning the pole for today’s ToyotaCare 250. Needless to say, Gibbs has unloaded with tremendous speed and should be elevated as the overall race favorite.

Among the favorites, I would also state Justin Allgaier and AJ Allmendinger appeared solid in race trim despite being pretty far down the single lap speed charts. John Hunter Nemechek also fired off really fast but was reportedly dealing with a tight race car after several laps. Nemechek was my only pre-practice betting pick for the outright win and I am still confident that he will run well this afternoon.

*Notable mention: Ryan Sieg stood out among the lower-tier drivers as showing really good speed which may lend a potential H2H opportunity