Last year, Shane Van Gisbergen shocked the racing world with a victory in his Cup Series debut at the Chicago Street Course. The victory changed SVG’s career and landed him a full-time Xfinity Series ride. SVG has taken advantage of that opportunity by winning 3 straight road course style events including Saturday’s The Loop 110 in NASCAR’s return to the Windy City. Needless to say, there are high expectations for SVG’s chances yet again on Sunday and that will be among the main storylines for Sunday’s Grant Park 165 at Chicago!
In last year’s race, many could consider the conditions a perfect storm for the New Zealand native. It was NASCAR’s first race ever on a street course and a completely new circuit. In fact, the Chicago Street Course was once a virtual design that NASCAR helped bring to life in order to bring racing to one of the nation’s biggest cities. Either way you look at it, Cup Series drivers were not on top of their game last year and in many ways they were outclassed in a relatively new style of racing. With that being said, I don’t expect that to be the case on Sunday when the series returns for their encore performance.
NASCAR drivers and teams are quick learners and rest assured there has been a lot more preparation that has gone into this event. On Saturday, there were 6 different Cup Series drivers who participated in The Loop 110 who were all trying to gain precious track time in preparation for Sunday’s Grant Park 165. While Cup Series drivers competing in Xfinity Series is nothing new, I just think it points to the amount of focus that so many drivers have put into this return to Chicago. Despite those facts, SVG remains an overwhelming betting favorite for Sunday’s race and I believe that will open up advantageous opportunities for bettors!
In Saturday’s Xfinity Series preview, I invoked the notion that the Chicago Street Course is simply another “road course” style race from a handicapping perspective. While I believe that is true, rest assured I also realize that this style of racing does have some differences as well. The surface of the street course has less grip and a completely different feel compared to road courses, the racing surface is more narrow, and track position is extremely important. With all that being said, I still look to the prominent road course talents as the drivers that should have the most success and we will look back to prior racing this season on the road courses to establish some of our baselines, which we will cover below.
Based on current betting odds and the fact that SVG is a commanding favorite, I do believe there is reason to take chances on some of the non-favorites who have shown the road course skills because betting odds are pretty generous to some of the talented road course drivers. Keep in mind that I do believe the race winner will be a high-risk play on Sunday. Even with SVG being incredibly dominant on Saturday in a less talented field, race strategy nearly altered the outcome in that event and track position is even more important in the Cup Series car. Therefore, don’t be surprised if we are surprised at who ends up in victory lane. For bettors, our best options will likely be found in H2H formats and that is where I am hoping that we can make our sharpest picks.
Every time the road course style races pop up on the schedule, I always refer to our dynamic averages as one of my favorite handicapping tools. Our dynamic averages, at the road courses, highlight driver performances over the last 5 races which usually provides a pretty good viewpoint of driver consistency in recent road course events. As you will at the link above, Tyler Reddick, AJ Allmendinger, William Byron, and Christopher Bell are in the group of competitors that has achieved a 100+ average rating over the last 5 road course races. Allmendinger’s name may be sort of surprising on that list given that he is now a part-time driver. While Allmendinger has been overshadowed by SVG’s success in Xfinity Series competition, these stats support the notion that we should not forget that Allmendinger remains a threat.
Behind the top 4 drivers with the 100+ average ratings, there are a lot of drivers that have compiled solid numbers just shy of that triple digit threshold. Among the names includes the likes of Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson. While many could argue that Elliott has not been as dominant at road courses in the Next Gen Car, he remains the most decorated Cup Series driver at the road courses and among the best in NASCAR history. Meanwhile, Larson has been one of the best road course drivers in the Next Gen Car and won earlier this year at Sonoma. On Saturday, we saw Larson battle toe to toe with SVG in the Xfinity Series race and he also won the pole for Sunday’s Grant Park 165. Needless to say, Larson appears to be the next biggest threat to SVG going into tomorrow’s race.
In practice on Saturday, Kyle Larson topped the speed charts with a fast lap of 89.549mph around the 2.140 mile and 12-turn circuit. Larson’s fast lap was a mere 1 tenth faster than SVG who posted the 2nd fastest lap of the session. Meanwhile, Ty Gibbs was the only other driver that posted a sub 89 second lap time. Behind the top 3 guys, there was a near 6 tenth drop off to the rest of the competition which is a really wide margin. For that reason, Larson, SVG, and Gibbs appear to have established themselves as top contenders going into Sunday.
Behind the top 3 drivers in practice, I don’t want to make it sound like there were not potential contenders in the rest of the field but simply show the difference in lap times compared to the top 3 drivers listed above. Bubba Wallace, Alex Bowman, and John Hunter Nemechek were among the names that stood out in practice compared to pre-race expectations. While I would have not considered those names among potential betting targets, those 3 names were really fast in practice and perhaps are trending in the right direction. Meanwhile, Martin Truex Jr, AJ Allmendinger, and Joey Logano were among some of the big names that were least impressive in Saturday’s practice. All of those drivers appeared to be struggling and may not have as high of a ceiling as many expected prior to on-track sessions.
There are not many times, if ever, that I have promoted backing an 8-1 favorite who has never won at the Cup Series level. However that may change because I believe Ty Gibbs is legitimate outright betting favorite going into tomorrow. SVG and Kyle Larson are going to be difficult to beat and I will side with the value in Larson as a considerable betting option. However, Gibbs has been just as impressive this weekend. While I hate taking a driver to get his first win, Gibbs has a great chance going into Sunday especially if they can take advantage of strategy and track position.
Because of strategy and track position, I believe bettors should explore several dark horses for low-risk/high reward action. Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, Bubba Wallace, and AJ Allmendinger are among the names that I believe fall into those buckets. Elliott did not have the best day on Saturday but still is an elite talent at 30-1 odds, Bowman has appeared to be among the top 5 cars throughout the weekend. Meanwhile both Wallace (speed on Saturday) and AJ Allmendinger (stats/performance) have reasons to warrant betting consideration in the 40-1 betting range. Needless to say, I believe bettors should sprinkle some of those low-risk/high-reward drivers into their final card on Sunday.
For the sharpest options in H2H and prop bet formats, Bubba Wallace and John Hunter Nemechek are my favorite drivers poised to shatter their suggested ceilings. Wallace appears to have top 5 speed and has shown surprising improvement on the road courses, yet is being rated as a 15th best betting option. Meanwhile, Nemechek is considered one of the bottom of the barrel drivers going into Sunday. Nemechek has shown great speed this weekend and underrated road course skills. As a result, I believe Nemechek is a target for prop bets that may provide enough positive value to warrant betting consideration.
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