Last week, Aric Almirola stole a win away from the Xfinity Series playoff contenders with his victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the opening race of the Round of 8. As a result, all 8 championship contenders are still battling for the right to earn a championship ticket to Phoenix which will either be granted by a victory over the next two weeks or by advancing on points. On Saturday, those championship implications will reach a fever pitch when the Xfinity Series goes superspeedway racing at Talladega Superspeedway for the running of the United Rentals 250.
While most of the heavy storylines will surround the playoff contenders, we know the reality of racing at Talladega opens the door for all competitors to contend for a victory. In fact, it could easily be argued that Talladega has yielded more surprise winners than any other track on the NASCAR circuit. As a result, Talladega presents a unique conundrum for bettors which includes uncertainty but big rewards for those lucky enough to cash a winning ticket. As a result, we will put our best foot forward towards identifying the drivers that have consistently put themselves in position to potentially battle for a victory on Saturday!
From a strategy perspective, our picks must include drivers that have legitimate winning upside but our betting cards should be constructed in a way that provides selections that are statistically sound. While we know that drivers like Austin Hill and Jesse Love will be heavy favorites due to their impressive resumes on the superspeedways, betting odds are pretty generous for the majority of drivers competing on Saturday. For that reason, we must make sure we are taking enough drivers to increase our probability of cashing a winning ticket while also ensuring that the betting odds on each selection can sustain sufficient ROI for our entire betting card.
Note: The following data represents performance metrics from the previous 5 superspeedway races this season and should be used as a handicapping baseline to identify drivers who have consistently run towards the front of the field and/or produced quality finishing positions.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Love | 113.2 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 6.4 | -6 | 21 | 110 | 669 |
| Austin Hill | 106.6 | 2.8 | 7.0 | 17.2 | 10.0 | -46 | 29 | 229 | 619 |
| Sheldon Creed | 101.4 | 12.4 | 11.2 | 15.0 | 10.8 | 49 | 12 | 56 | 547 |
| Justin Allgaier | 94.2 | 5.8 | 14.0 | 11.6 | 11.2 | -11 | 7 | 18 | 548 |
| Connor Zilisch | 91.8 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 18.6 | 11.4 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 648 |
| Sam Mayer | 90.9 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 10.6 | -17 | 11 | 20 | 647 |
| Carson Kvapil | 90.9 | 13.6 | 16.8 | 11.2 | 15.0 | 43 | 9 | 3 | 669 |
| Jeb Burton | 89.5 | 17.4 | 13.8 | 12.0 | 14.0 | 150 | 13 | 11 | 669 |
| Aric Almirola | 89.1 | 18.0 | 12.8 | 16.8 | 12.5 | 41 | 11 | 49 | 529 |
| Taylor Gray | 88.5 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 17.8 | 11.8 | 34 | 12 | 15 | 621 |
| Harrison Burton | 85.3 | 19.4 | 15.2 | 10.6 | 14.0 | -8 | 7 | 1 | 669 |
| Sammy Smith | 82.7 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 18.8 | 15.0 | -7 | 13 | 20 | 539 |
| Nick Sanchez | 82.1 | 15.6 | 21.4 | 15.8 | 16.4 | 92 | 20 | 19 | 602 |
| Ryan Sieg | 74.5 | 19.6 | 18.2 | 27.2 | 15.8 | 69 | 9 | 29 | 510 |
| Dean Thompson | 72.4 | 20.6 | 17.2 | 15.8 | 18.6 | 18 | 10 | 0 | 655 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 71.3 | 27.6 | 17.2 | 15.2 | 17.6 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 661 |
| Christian Eckes | 69.9 | 10.6 | 19.8 | 23.4 | 15.2 | 36 | 14 | 2 | 661 |
| Brandon Jones | 69.6 | 8.2 | 17.8 | 19.6 | 19.0 | -26 | 8 | 13 | 547 |
| Leland Honeyman | 69.5 | 27.6 | 18.2 | 16.0 | 17.2 | 17 | 17 | 1 | 667 |
| Jeffrey Clements | 67.8 | 20.2 | 17.8 | 18.4 | 22.0 | 6 | 28 | 1 | 654 |
| Daniel Dye | 66.6 | 14.4 | 20.2 | 19.6 | 20.4 | -6 | 25 | 0 | 540 |
| William Sawalich | 66.2 | 14.0 | 17.0 | 24.4 | 19.8 | -24 | 9 | 0 | 464 |
| Blaine Perkins | 63.5 | 24.0 | 25.8 | 19.2 | 24.2 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 622 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 58.8 | 24.2 | 21.6 | 26.2 | 22.2 | 80 | 13 | 1 | 499 |
| Ryan Ellis | 57.3 | 23.6 | 25.0 | 17.8 | 23.2 | -65 | 5 | 0 | 668 |
| Brennan Poole | 56.2 | 26.0 | 24.2 | 18.4 | 24.2 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 648 |
| Josh Williams | 54.4 | 16.2 | 23.4 | 27.2 | 22.8 | -73 | 7 | 0 | 498 |
| Joey Gase | 48.7 | 27.6 | 24.6 | 19.2 | 26.6 | -46 | 4 | 0 | 669 |
| Kyle Sieg | 48.0 | 25.4 | 28.2 | 25.6 | 26.8 | -47 | 8 | 0 | 555 |
| Garrett Smithley | 45.6 | 34.0 | 24.0 | 21.5 | 27.3 | -91 | 6 | 1 | 525 |
| Parker Retzlaff | 41.1 | 24.2 | 31.2 | 33.8 | 29.4 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 366 |
| Mason Maggio | 39.1 | 33.3 | 29.3 | 23.8 | 29.3 | -52 | 3 | 0 | 532 |
| Caesar Bacarella | 37.3 | 37.0 | 34.7 | 23.7 | 31.7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 337 |
Currently, there are 3 drivers that are getting the most attention from odds-makers which include Austin Hill, Connor Zilisch, and Jesse Love. All 3 of those drivers have credible arguments to be the outright betting favorite. Hill has been the most successful at this style of racing while Zilisch has won nearly everything this season. However, I still lean towards Jesse Love as the outright betting favorite and perhaps my #1 rated driver. Love has been excellent at Talladega and has statistically produced the best stats this season on the superspeedways. As a result, I would like to have exposure to Love on my betting card even if it is in parlay and H2H formats.
Behind the “Big 3,” betting odds are much better in terms of value. Without question, Aric Almirola and Sheldon Creed are my favorite targets in that 2nd-tier group of drivers. Almirola is behind one of the fastest cars in the series and has a great superspeedway resume. Meanwhile, Sheldon Creed is one of the most underrated superspeedway talents in the series despite not having any wins to show for it. With both drivers getting near 20-1 odds, I think both are worthy of imminent consideration. To be fair, Justin Allgaier, Sammy Smith, Nick Sanchez, and Ryan Sieg are additional names that have shown a lot of strong performances at the superspeedways. Personally, I just wish those drivers had a little better betting value based on current odds.
If we look deeper into the field, Jeb Burton and Taylor Gray both have some appeal for different reasons. Burton has proved to be one of the better superspeedway talents in the field and consistently gets solid value because he pilots equipment that is not among the top teams in the garage. Gray may not have the superspeedway resume but has shown enough flashes of that skill set to warrant consideration at his current odds. It also helps that Gray is part of one of the strongest teams in the series and would be among those that would benefit from some teammate help. For true long shots, I would point to the likes of Dean Thompson and Brennan Poole as drivers that have higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. It’s more likely that Thompson and Poole’s ceilings are in the Top 5 or Top 10 range but at Talladega anything is possible. As a result, I believe both drivers can be considered in all formats at lottery style betting odds.
***TBD after Qualifying***
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