2026 Food City 500 Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday April 12th, 2026. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: FOX

NASCAR’s Cup Series enjoyed their first “off” week of the season over the Easter holiday last weekend. However, NASCAR’s best will return to action on Sunday as they cap off a weekend of racing in Thunder Valley with the running of the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway. As things currently stand, Tyler Reddick remains the leader in the standings with a healthy 82 point lead over Ryan Blaney. Interestingly, there have only been 4 different winners this season at NASCAR’s highest level but there is a strong likelihood that could change on Sunday following 500 laps of racing around The World’s Fastest Half-Mile.

When it comes to handicapping the Food City 500, we will put heavy attention towards driver’s resumes at Bristol especially in recent years. There is a unique skill set required to make the most speed at Bristol and that is why we normally see a lot of the same names at the front of the field every time we visit this exciting bullring. Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 8 career victories at Bristol and that milestone puts Rowdy among the all-time greats. However, Busch has never won in the Next Gen Car at Bristol. In fact, it may be shocking to say but Busch has never finished better than 14th at Bristol in the Next Gen Car era. Therefore, we must make sure that we identify drivers that have excelled in recent years at Bristol to ensure we are putting our selections in the best position to cash a winning ticket!

In recent years, Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin have easily stood out as the top two talents at Bristol. Larson has won 3 times in the last 7 races and has absolutely dominated the total laps led category in the Next Gen Car. In fact, Larson has led 892 laps just in the last 4 races at Bristol which is beyond impressive. Meanwhile, Hamlin is a 4-time winner at Bristol Motor Speedway with two of those victories falling over the last 5 races. Needless to say, Larson and Hamlin enter the weekend as relatively sizable betting favorites. With that being said, it’s not always the fastest cars that get to victory lane at Bristol. We will likely see a lot of varying strategies on pit road on Sunday and the team that can get their driver in the best position in the final laps, could emerge with the victory!

Bristol – Cup Notes

Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 8 career victories at Bristol. *Busch’s best finish is 14th in the Next Gen Car.
Denny Hamlin (4), Kyle Larson (3), Brad Keselowski (3), Joey Logano (2), Chris Buescher, and Christopher Bell are all former winners at Bristol.
Kyle Larson or Denny Hamlin has finished in the Top 2 positions in 5 of the last 7 races at Bristol.
Denny Hamlin has finished 4th or better in 4 of the last 5 races at Bristol.
Kyle Larson has finished in the Top 5 in 6 of the last 7 races at Bristol.
Christopher Bell has finished in the Top 5 in 4 of the last 6 races at Bristol. *Bell has finished in the Top 10 in 6 straight races at Bristol.
Ryan Blaney has finished 6th or better in each of the last 3 races at Bristol.
Chase Elliott has finished 8th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at Bristol.
Chase Briscoe has finished 9th or better in each of the last 3 races at Bristol.
Alex Bowman has finished 9th or better in 3 of the last 4 races at Bristol.
Joey Logano has finished outside the Top 10 in 8 of the last 9 races at Bristol.
Erik Jones has finished 20th or worse in each of the last 6 races at Bristol.
The eventual race winner has started from the Top 3 starting positions in 4 of the last 5 races at Bristol.
Toyota drivers have won 3 of the last 5 races at Bristol.

Practice Observations

Ryan Blaney emerged from Saturday’s on-track activities as the winner following a lap of 127.064mph which captured the pole for Sunday’s Food City 500. Blaney edged out the likes of Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe, Riley Herbst, Ty Gibbs, Ross Chastain, Chris Buescher, and Kyle Larson who all posted laps in the sub 15.2 lap time bracket. Blaney actually posted the best 15, 20, 25, and 30 lap consecutive averages in practice. Considering Blaney backed up those times with a pole lap, he may be the driver to beat going into the weekend. With that said, Kyle Larson was equally impressive in practice on the stop watch. In fact, Larson showed the least amount of fall-off compared the entire field in Saturday’s practice which only strengthens the argument for the #5 team.

Outside of the top names that were somewhat expected to dominate the lap times, I would also mention names like Carson Hocevar, Michael McDowell, and Alex Bowman as drivers that appeared to exceed expectations in practice. All 3 of those drivers were very consistent on lap times. Bowman is returning for the first time in 4 races following a difficult bout with vertigo. While most casuals would not expect much from Bowman in his return, I actually have relatively high expectations for the #48 car because he has always been strong at Bristol. Other drivers that are worth mentioning from an observational standpoint in practice include the likes of Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano. All 3 of those drivers have pretty solid resumes at Bristol but struggled during Saturday’s practice session which diminishes their outlook for Sunday!

Betting Targets

Unfortunately, Ryan Blaney’s pole winning effort on Saturday diminished any betting value that anyone would have desired for the #12 team. Blaney and Larson are listed as heavy favorites which I believe are justifiable from all known handicapping metrics. Based on the way Blaney has performed thus far with the new short-track rules package, I may actually give him the nod as the overall top rated driver going into Sunday despite Larson’s prestigious Bristol resume. With that being said, I also like another square option in Denny Hamlin. Hamlin showed some of the best fall-off speed in Saturday’s practice and also checked off on nearly every handicapping category going into Sunday’s green flag!

Based on other handicapping angles, I would also elevate Ty Gibbs potential dark horse status on Sunday. Gibbs has been red-hot through the last several weeks and enters one of his best tracks where he has posted an impressive 107.0 average driver rating over the last 4 races. Following a 5th place qualifying effort on Sunday, Gibbs is a legitimate dark horse with winning upside making him an ideal target in H2H formats. While I have similar expectations for Carson Hocevar despite his oversaturated betting odds, I would point to the likes of Brad Keselowski and Alex Bowman as deeper options that should out-perform their current betting odds. Both Keselowski and Bowman have legitimate Top 5 to Top 10 upside despite the fact they are receiving odds at nearly 2-1 for Top 10 props. Both drivers also have some value in H2H formats based on the drivers that are receiving similar betting odds. Bowman and William Byron are among my favorite fantasy targets because both drivers should be able to overcome poor qualifying results to move forward on Sunday.

2026 Draftkings Food City 500 Optimal Lineup

2026 Food City 500 Race Picks

*FINAL* Denny Hamlin +800 (.75 unit)
Ty Gibbs +1000 (.75 unit)
Chase Briscoe +1500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Prop Bets

Josh Berry -110 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Bubba Wallace -110 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Chris Buescher +240 wins Group 4 (Bowman, Chastain, Busch)(2 units) *Draftkings

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Larson +350 wins Food City 500
Chase Briscoe +110 over Tyler Reddick
Risking 1 unit to win: +845 Ryan Blaney +350 wins Food City 500
Chris Buescher +200 finishes Top 10
Risking .5 unit to win: +625

Jay Horne