2026 Propane Suburban 300 Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday April 11th, 2026. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: CW

Last week, William Sawalich scored his first career victory at Rockingham Speedway and became just the 4th different driver to win this season among the series’ full-time competitors. Sawalich’s victory was only the 2nd race of the season where a winner was not among the betting favorites. In fact, Sheldon Creed’s victory at Atlanta and Sawalich’s victory at Rockingham are the only two races this season where the winner has produced better than 8-1 odds. For the most part, the favorites have dominated the O’Reilly Series this season and that will be the expectation again on Saturday when the green flag waves for the Propane Suburban 300 at Bristol Motor Speedway.

While Friday’s Truck Series race hosted numerous Cup Series talents which provided some diversity to a normally top-heavy field, tomorrow’s Propane Suburban 300 has just two Cup Series entries in rookie Connor Zilisch and superstar Kyle Larson. Obviously, Larson’s name is the one that stands out in that group despite Zilisch’s record breaking 10-win season a year ago. Larson has been one of the best drivers in the entire sport at Bristol over the last several years. Not only has Larson won each of his last two starts at Bristol in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, he has also scored wins in 2 of the last 3 races at Bristol in Cup Series competition. Needless to say, Larson enters Saturday as a heavy betting favorite at one of his best tracks.

Despite the fact that Larson will be a rightful heavy betting favorite, bettors will have to consider other potential options. These races at Bristol can be influenced by numerous outside of just pure speed around The World’s Fastest Half-Mile. Just as we saw in Friday night’s Truck Series race, one wrong mistake can wipe out several leaders, fuel mileage, and track position could also come into the picture. As a result, we must explore the different drivers that could potentially pull off another upset just as William Sawalich did last week at Rockingham. From there, we will also analyze current betting odds to determine the drivers that are either significantly undervalued or overvalued once again in hopes to find some advantageous H2H match-ups which is how we turned on profit on Friday!

Bristol – O’Reilly Notes

Kyle Larson and Justin Allgaier are the only drivers that are former winners at Bristol. *Both drivers have 2 career wins at Bristol in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series.
Kyle Larson has won in each of his last 2 starts at Bristol. *Larson has finished in the Top 3 in 7 of 10 career starts at Bristol.
Sheldon Creed has finished 2nd in 2 of the last 3 races at Bristol.
Carson Kvapil has finished 4th or better in each of his 2 career starts at Bristol.
Justin Allgaier has finished 6th or better in 5 of the last 7 races at Bristol.
Jesse Love has finished 6th or better in 2 of 3 career starts at Bristol.
Harrison Burton has finished 7th or better in 4 of his last 5 starts at Bristol.
Brandon Jones has finished 8th or better in 6 of the last 8 races at Bristol.
Sam Mayer has finished 9th or better in 4 of this 6 career starts at Bristol.
Ryan Sieg has finished in the Top 10 in 4 of the last 5 races at Bristol.
Dean Thompson has finished 12 or better in each of his 2 career starts at Bristol.
Jeb Burton has finished 13th or worse in each of the last 6 races at Bristol.
Austin Hill has finished 14th or worse in each of the last 4 races at Bristol.
There have been 7 cautions or less in each of the last 4 races at Bristol.
Chevrolet drivers have won 4 of the last 6 races at Bristol.

Overvalued vs. Undervalued

Based on current odds going into Saturday’s on-track activities, I wanted to list a few drivers that appear to be significantly overvalued or undervalued. I did this exercise in our Truck Series preview and believe that it was pretty spot-on. Therefore, we will attempt it again for Saturday’s Propane Suburban 300. With that said, I do think that both Cup Series drivers are somewhat overvalued. Zilisch is listed at low betting odds despite never being known as a short-track talent. Zilisch has shown flashes of success at Bristol in just two career starts but has never shown dominant tendencies to warrant his current odds. While Larson definitely has the resume and the talent to warrant being the overall race favorite, his current betting odds are as low as -150 at some sportsbooks which is simply wild for any race on the schedule. We have seen Larson have dominant performances and lose from late race mistakes, restarts, or other situations yet current betting odds are nearly inferring that is improbable.

On the other side of the spectrum, Jesse Love and Sheldon Creed are two drivers in the intermediate betting range that may be undervalued by a decent margin. Love has posted solid results despite just a few starts at Bristol. Meanwhile, Creed has finished in the runner-up position in 2 of his last 3 starts at Bristol. Despite those facts, both drivers are receiving north of 20-1 odds and have winning ceilings. Deeper into the field, I would draw attention to names like Harrison Burton and Dean Thompson as drivers that are significantly undervalued. To be clear, I don’t believe that either Burton or Thompson has a winning ceiling. However, both drivers are listed at 150-1 odds or even higher. For that reason, I believe both drivers are worthy of consideration in prop bet formats or could be potential fantasy targets depending on qualifying results.

Betting Targets

Without question, I believe Kyle Larson is the driver to beat going into Saturday’s Propane Suburban 300. In my opinion, Larson’s skill level at Bristol is good enough to win without a perfect car and I think it will take something to go wrong (bad restart, bad pit stop, wreck, etc.) for Larson to be kept out of victory lane on Saturday. Larson really gets the best of these cars (O’Reilly) at Bristol and will be very tough to beat unless they just completely miss the setup. With that said, there is not any betting value in backing Larson unless you were to potentially increase your risk and/or add another leg in a parlay to strengthen the ROI. Personally, I like some exposure to Larson but not to the extent that damages the overall ROI of my entire betting card.

Deeper into the field, Justin Allgaier and Carson Kvapil are drivers that immediately stand out as strong pivot options outside of Larson. Allgaier has already won 3 times this season and is a two-time winner at Bristol. Meanwhile, Kvapil finished in the top 4 in both starts during the 2025 season as a rookie. Kvapil has been running very well this season and appears to be getting very close to scoring that first-win. At 12-1 odds, Kvapil may be worth a decent look. If we look deeper into the field, Jesse Love stands out as one of my favorite H2H targets going into Saturday. While I believe that Love has winning upside as described above, I believe he is an ideal H2H target because his consistency towards producing quality finishes combined with outright speed appears to be better than all the drivers within his range of betting odds.

*For now those are my most confident opinions going into Saturday’s practice/qualifying sessions. If I see anything that greatly changes any of these opinions or if we identify drivers with much greater speed than we expect, I will update everyone following Saturday’s on-track sessions.