2026 Mission 200 at the Glen Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday May 9th, 2026. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Watkins Glen International
TV: CW

Later today, the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series will rekindle another afternoon of racing at Watkins Glen International with the running of the Mission 200 at the Glen. Yesterday, we witnessed an absolutely crazy Truck Series opener at Watkins Glen that was filled with restart penalties, wrecks, and chaotic restarts. Fortunately, we were on the winning side of all of our H2H match-ups and H2H match-ups will likely be the focus again today with a top heavy field led by superstars Shane Van Gisbergen and Connor Zilisch!

As many may be aware, Connor Zilisch has won the last two races at Watkins Glen in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series which includes his series debut in 2024. Zilisch has been extremely strong in the O’Reilly Series on the road courses and has often gone toe to toe with Shane Van Gibsbergen for prominence in the series. SVG is actually the defending winner at Watkins Glen in the Cup Series and he has also won 2 of his last 3 starts in the O’Reilly Series on the road courses. Needless to say, SVG and Zilisch are expected to battle once again this afternoon for the victory at Watkins Glen despite the fact that there are some capable O’Reilly Series regulars, Ross Chastain, and others that will also be competing this afternoon.

The downside to the fact that Zilisch and SVG have been so dominant is the fact that both drivers are listed at near even betting odds. While I think we would be foolish to ignore the fact that both drivers have a high likelihood of visiting victory lane, I would also remind everyone that it does not take many big mistakes to lose track position and bring other competitors into the mix just as we saw in yesterday’s Truck Series race. As a result, we will not completely ignore any potential dark horses but will still keep our primary focus towards H2H match-ups that provide our best betting value. In reality, this will probably be a relatively light betting card depending on how match-ups pan out.

Watkins Glen – O’Reilly Notes

Connor Zilisch and Sam Mayer are the only former winners at Watkins Glen.
Connor Zilisch has won the last two races at Watkins Glen.
Sam Mayer has finished 1st or 2nd in 2 of the last 3 races at Watkins Glen.
Sheldon Creed has finished 2nd in 2 of the last 3 races at Watkins Glen.
Sammy Smith has finished 3rd in 2 of 4 career starts at Watkins Glen.
Shane Van Gisbergen’s best finish is 5th in two career starts at Watkins Glen.
Carson Kvapil finished 5th in his first start at Watkins Glen last year.
Justin Allgaier has finished 9th or better in 8 of the last 11 races at Watkins Glen.
Harrison Burton has finished in the Top 10 in both career starts at Watkins Glen.
Brandon Jones has finished 11th or worse in 4 of the last 6 races at Watkins Glen.
Ross Chastain has finished 14th or worse in 6 of 8 career starts at Watkins Glen.
Austin Hill has finished 14th or worse in 3 of 4 career starts at Watkins Glen.
Chevrolet drivers have won the last 4 races at Watkins Glen.
The eventual race winner has started from the Top 5 in 15 of the last 16 races at Watkins Glen.
There have been at least 7 cautions in 6 of the last 7 races at Watkins Glen.

Betting Targets

Without much surprise, both SVG and Zilisch should be the drivers pacing the field later this afternoon unless they have trouble. I think it has been clear over the last two races that Zilisch is simply better than SVG at Watkins Glen in the O’Reilly Series car. While there is not much betting value in either driver, Zilisch can be added as a leg in parlay formats combined with Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen and can also be targeted in H2H formats against SVG. Similar to yesterday’s Truck Series race, I believe Brent Crews is the best/biggest dark horse to challenge the outright favorites. Crews was the fastest driver on Friday and has been impressive throughout the start of the 2026 season. Crews has very polished road course skills and could likely contend especially if Zilisch loses track position.

Based on prior Watkins Glen performances, road course metrics, and practice earlier today, I would throw out names like Sam Mayer and Jesse Love who appear to be bound for a quality performance today barring trouble. Mayer has a victory and a runner-up finish over the last 3 races at Watkins Glen. I am a little bit more skeptical for Love despite the fact the #2 car showed really good speed in practice. Love has been hit or miss at the road courses which brings in some volatility into the betting equation. Another driver that showed solid speed and may be a dark horse in H2H formats includes Corey Day. Day closed out practice as the fastest driver on track and was likely going to post a solid qualifying effort before rain cancelled qualifying. As a result, we may get a slight premium for Day who will be starting back in 27th position.

2026 Draftkings Mission 200 at the Glen Optimal Lineup

2026 Mission 200 at the Glen Race Picks

FINAL

Brent Crews +600 (1 unit)
Sam Mayer +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Connor Zilisch -115 over Shane Van Gisbergen (2 units)
Sam Mayer -115 over Austin Hill (2 units)
*More picks to be added. Check back until “FINAL” status is displayed.*

Jay Horne