2026 Wurth 400 Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday May 3rd, 2026. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: FOX

Last week, Carson Hocevar delivered one of the most anticipated first wins in NASCAR history by winning the Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Hocevar’s win and epic celebration became one of the highlights of the entire 2026 season. While many would chalk up Hocevar’s as another superspeedway surprise winner, Hocevar has already backed up the breakout performance last week. On Friday, Hocevar won the SpeedyCash.com 250 at Texas in the Truck Series beating Kyle Busch and many other talented competitors. On Saturday, Hocevar backed up last week’s win by putting the #77 on the pole for tomorrow’s Wurth 400 and will pick up where he left off last week by leading the field to the green flag on Sunday!

While Hocevar has a wave of momentum going into race day, I don’t think anyone would consider the #77 a favorite for Sunday’s Wurth 400. In fact, Tyler Reddick likely deserves that title as the overall favorite. Reddick is a former (2022) winner at Texas. More importantly, Reddick has won at each 1.5 mile speedway the Cup Series has visited this season at Atlanta and Kansas. Additionally, Reddick also won at Darlington which are the only intermediate layouts the Cup Series has competed at so far this season outside of Las Vegas. Needless to say, Reddick has been stout at the intermediate speedways and was among the fastest cars in Saturday’s practice on the long-haul leading all drivers with the fastest 20 and 25 lap consecutive averages.

So far this weekend, Texas Motor Speedway has produced two extremely exciting races in the Craftsman Truck Series and O’Reilly Auto Parts Series. The track is very fast and lacks grip especially in turns 1-2 which has made things dicey and fun to watch. In recent years, we have seen the Cup Series drivers really struggle at Texas because these cars are on edge. In fact, the last 5 races have each produced at least 11 cautions which is a testament to the difficulty of car control at Texas. For that reason, we will have to keep an open mind with our betting selections because a lot can change over the course of 400 miles on Sunday. However, we have had good luck throughout the weekend targeting sharp H2H match-ups and that will continue to be a heavy focus as we look to put together a winning lineup!

Texas – Cup Notes

Kyle Busch has the most wins (4) among active drivers at Texas.
Denny Hamlin (3), Joey Logano (2), Austin Dillon, Kyle Larson, William Byron, Chase Elliott, and Tyler Reddick are former winners at Texas.
Ross Chastain has finished 2nd in 2 of the last 3 races at Texas.
William Byron has finished 3rd or better in 3 of the last 5 races at Texas.
Christopher Bell has finished 4th or better in 3 of the last 6 races at Texas.
Erik Jones has finished 6th or better in 2 of the last 4 races at Texas..
Bubba Wallace has finished 7th or better in 2 of the last 3 races at Texas.
Austin Dillon has finished 8th or better in the last two races at Texas.
Ryan Blaney has finished 8th or better in 6 of the last 8 races at Texas.
Brad Keselowski has finished 9th or better in 6 of the last 7 races at Texas.
Chase Briscoe has finished in the Top 10 in 3 of the last 4 races at Texas.
Daniel Suarez has finished in the Top 10 in 4 of the last 5 races at Texas.
Kyle Busch has finished in the Top 10 in 6 of the last 9 races at Texas.
Chris Buescher’s best finish is 14th in 16 career starts at Texas.
Ty Gibbs has finished 20th or worse in 3 of 4 career starts at Texas.
Alex Bowman has finished 29th or worse in 4 of the last 5 races at Texas.
Chevrolet drivers have won 4 of the last 5 races at Texas.
The eventual race winner has started 18th or worse in the last 3 races at Texas.
There have been 11 cautions or more in the last 5 races at Texas.

Practice Observations

Before Hocevar put the #77 on the pole for tomorrow’s race, William Byron posted the fastest lap in practice with a speed of 189.294mph. Byron was followed by Michael McDowell and then a big group of Toyotas that occupied the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th fastest times. With that being said, nearly all drivers posted their fastest lap very early in practice and on their 2nd or 3rd lap on the track due to cooler track temps. I don’t believe bettors should pay any attention to those single lap speeds because they don’t really hold any water. In terms of potential race speed, Tyler Reddick and William Byron appeared to be the fastest cars lap over lap. Byron fired off really well and posted very solid times. Reddick did not show the same fire off speed but was really strong on the longer run in practice; especially towards the end of practice when track conditions were closest to what we expect on Sunday.

Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, and Hocevar were additional names that appeared to have decent speed. Obviously it’s hard to tell who was giving it 100% in practice but those were the drivers with the most impressive speeds in practice. On the other side of the coin, the drivers that appeared to be off in the speed department regardless of effort concerns included the vast majority of the Ford teams. The blue ovals occupied 8 of the bottom 14 positions on the speed charts and that included big names like Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Preece, and others. To make matters worse, the majority of those Fords also qualified relatively poorly as well. Needless to say, I think we need to monitor how the Ford teams rebound on Sunday. If they recover well on Sunday, perhaps it was just a slow start to the weekend. If they fail to rebound, there may be bigger concerns that are worthy of monitoring as we move forward in the season.

Betting Targets

If we combine Texas stats, recent momentum, dynamic averages, and all our other handicapping tools into the equation, Denny Hamlin appears to be the outlier that is checking the most boxes. Hamlin is a 3-time winner at Texas and has posted a whopping 129.2 average driver rating over the last 5 races at 1.5 mile venues. Hamlin won earlier this year at Las Vegas and has honestly been the best driver on the 1.5 mile speedways for the last two years. Behind Hamlin, Kyle Larson and William Byron also stand out as drivers that have been excellent at Texas and have been excellent at this style of racing. Larson (117.2) and Byron (105.8) rank 1st and 2nd in average driver rating at Texas since 2023. The only other driver to post triple digits in that timeframe is Tyler Reddick.

It’s worth mentioning that Byron is receiving similar betting odds to drivers like Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Carson Hocevar, and Chase Elliott. While those drivers are definitely capable of mixing it up at the front of the field, I think Byron is the much better option and is an ideal target in H2H formats among those favorites. To be honest, I have been disappointed with betting odds throughout the weekend at Texas and there are not many dark horses that have enough betting value to warrant consideration going into Sunday, despite the fact that I would not be surprised to see a new name in victory lane. If I had to pick a dark horse, Bubba Wallace and Ryan Blaney would be my choices. Blaney is nearly 20-1 odds due to the Ford struggles and that is simply too high if we think there is a chance the #12 team rebounds on Sunday. Meanwhile, Wallace checks off numerous handicapping boxes going into Sunday and we are getting extra value due to the fact that the #23 team did not get a chance to post a qualifying time on Saturday.

If you are looking for fliers or drivers that could be worth considering in prop bet formats, let me point everyone to the likes of Ross Chastain, Corey Heim, and Brad Keselowski. I know there are concerns around the performance and raw speed for the likes of Chastain and Keselowski. However, both drivers have been extremely impressive at Texas in the Next Gen Car and have much higher performance metrics that most people realize. Lastly, Corey Heim is a driver that continues to impress in part-time starts. Heim has not always gotten the finishes to showcase the speed he has shown. However, he is coming off a solid top 15 at Kansas and has unloaded really well again this weekend. For that reason, I believe Heim is a target in prop bet formats that provide low-risk/high-yield.