Bojangles’ Southern 500 Fantasy and Betting Preview
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service
NASCAR returns to its southern roots this weekend with the running of the Bojangles’ Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. Darlington has long been one of the most beloved tracks on the NASCAR circuit for both drivers and fans. “The Lady in Black”, “The Track Too Tough To Tame”, and the “Darlington Stripe” are just a few of the monikers that you will hear this weekend. All nicknames which have been well earned since 1949 when Harold Brasington first broke ground to build the speedway. Today Darlington represents the ultimate driving test for NASCAR’s biggest stars. It is a fickle and rugged 1.366 mile track down in the cotton fields of South Carolina. A track whose quarters are as tight as Bristol but with speeds that will eclipse 190mph like a superspeedway. Yes, Darlington is here and NASCAR fans are ready. Have a look at our Bojangles’ Southern 500 fantasy and betting preview as we prepare for some Saturday night racing at one of the most exciting venues in NASCAR.
Last week, our staff at NASCAR Wagers focused primarily on tire wear issues in our fantasy preview. As a result, our staff pointed out that the Ford teams appeared to have a better handle on camber balance which had caused the majority of the tire issues experienced at both Martinsville and Auto Club Speedways. One of our picks to win the race was Ford driver Joey Logano who came through with a big victory at 16-1 odds while becoming the 7th different driver to win through the first 7 races of the season. While Logano delivered a winner, tire issues did not play a big factor in the Duck Commander 500 like we expected. The GoodYear multi-zone tread technology appeared to hold up against extremely fast speeds and the heavy right side loading that the corners of Texas Motor Speedway produce on race cars. However, that does not mean that we have seen the last of the tire issues for the near future.
Darlington Raceway has historically been one of the toughest and most abrasive racing surfaces that NASCAR visits. Before the raceway was repaved in 2008, tires would seemingly wear on the pace laps alone. Once Darlington was repaved a lot of those characteristics of the racing surface vanished. However, the racetrack has slowly returned back to its original form meaning tire wear will be a factor this Saturday night whether it’s actual tire issues or teams just needing to change 4 tires on each pit stop.
Last week Jeff Gordon gambled by taking just two tires to setup a green-white-checker finish but could not hold off Logano on the final lap. The strong 2nd place finish vaulted Gordon into the points lead. With a bit of momentum going, Gordon should be on everyone’s roster this weekend when he returns to one of his best tracks. Gordon leads all active drivers in just about every category at Darlington including top 5 finishes, laps led, and wins (7). If you are going to start building a roster, start with the #24 car. Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson will also be leading candidates for fantasy rosters this weekend. Hamlin has posted an impressive 5.38 average finishing position at Darlington which is the best among all drivers. Johnson has nearly twice as many starts (15) but has 3 wins and 8 top 5 finishes to show for it. It is not ironic, that both drivers are notorious for being smooth and taking care of their equipment which is a nice quality for getting around this fickle racetrack.
Outside of the obvious favorites, we have a few drivers to consider as dark horses for this weekend. To start, Tony Stewart may be a good driver to have this Sunday. We know ‘Smoke’ has never visited victory lane at Darlington but he has run surprisingly well. The #14 team appears to be getting better each week and crew chief Chad Johnston has a good track record at Darlington. If you are looking for an even bigger longshot, Kyle Larson may be a good candidate. Larson has been running really well in recent weeks with a couple top 5 finishes. Larson is a really aggressive driver and this track fits him well. If there was going to be an upset winner like Regan Smith in 2011, Larson would be our first pick!
Be sure to check back with us later in the week for our practice recaps and predictions for the Bojangles Southern 500. Sprint Cup cars roll onto the track for the first time Friday at 11:30am.