Las Vegas: What we Learned

NASCAR Betting Preview
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Perhaps Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway did not provide the utter chaos and unpredictability that many expected as a result of NASCAR’s new rule package. Following the racing at Atlanta, I was pretty convinced that this new package would be a crap-shoot at the remaining 1.5 mile surfaces at tracks that had more overall grip. Instead, the Pennzoil 400 produced decent racing where the top teams and drivers still managed to emerge at the head of the field. With another race under the belt with this new rules package, perhaps it’s time to dial back the paranoia and get back down to business.

I never have any problem admitting when I am wrong and last Sunday’s race predictions were definitely a result of over exaggeration. Following the racing at Atlanta where several cars like Daniel Hemric, Ryan Preece, and other immature talents were able to contend with the best cars in the field, I felt that the racing at Las Vegas would produce even more parity and unpredictable results. Instead, the racing was pretty decent in the fact that cars remained closer together and competitive throughout the afternoon. Make no mistake about it, I am still not a fan of this package. I still believe the package takes a lot out of the drivers hands and it is still extremely time consuming for competitors to make successful passes or drive back through the field with the faster car.

However, there were some positive takeaways from Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 to provide some encouragement going forward. For starters, the race did not provide the parity that I feared. Going into Sunday, I was afraid we may see restrictor plate style racing in the sense of “comers and goers” at the front of the field. Instead, we saw the majority of the top drivers and teams emerge at the front of the field. Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex reminded all of us once again that the importance of long run speed cannot be undermined. In one of my pre-season previews related to the rules changes, I expected long run speed to become an even bigger premium under this new package. After Las Vegas, I think long run speed and a good handling setup are clearly the best benefactors to have in a race winning car.

Still, drivers still have to get the job done and that is the core of racing in general. I think it is a very good sign that the top 5 finishers on Sunday are all former Cup Series Champions. It proves that you still have to really fight the car over the long run and perhaps push the car even harder on the tail-end of green flag runs to maintain speed. The difference with last year’s package was once grip started falling off, cars became difficult to drive with the lower downforce and grip on the back of the car. As a result, drivers had to consistently play with the throttle to manage tire wear and optimize corner exit. This year with the bigger spoilers, the ideal goal is to keep the car balanced where drivers can stay in the gas from the beginning to the end of a run. I have made mention on several occasions of the importance of “momentum” not only when racing side by side with competitors but momentum throughout an entire run. Under this package, cars have more grip and drag to create better corner speed. The goal now is to find the balance/setup to not only keep the speed in the car throughout the run but also the drive-ability in the racecar.

With these things in mind, I think we can pause on some of the fears that this new package was going to turn things upside down from a handicapping perspective. Possibly qualifying and single lap speed on the 1.5 mile tracks will be as irrelevant as ever. More observational upside could be gained by long run speed in practices that are not biased by “draft” assistance on the stopwatch. Additionally, I think we can all assume that Team Penske and perhaps Richard Childress Racing cars have done the best of adapting to the new package based off their 2018 norms. Team Penske finished 1-2 at Las Vegas and had 3 drivers that had a chance to win in the closing laps at Atlanta. If that does not display strength, I do not know what does.

With those things in mind, going forward I don’t think there is anything to change from a handicapping perspective. Like I said before, single lap speed should be ignored completely, more upside should go to the cars/teams that continue to show strong long run speed week over week, and lastly I think we may can start mixing in a few more props/group bets as the season goes along. Over the last few weeks, there have been excellent odds on long shot drivers and some of those drivers (Dillon, Stenhouse, etc) have shown the ability to stay upfront. From a risk/reward perspective, I am not sure if it makes sense to start taking long shots every week for the outright win. However, there is more obtainable value in props and group bets with a low risk approach which is something to consider as we move forward!