Rear View to Windshield: Atlanta to Las Vegas
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Last weekend’s races for all 3 of NASCAR’s touring series provided our first true glimpse of racing for the 2018 season. I know it was technically the 2nd race of the season for each series but everyone should understand the rare specimen that is restrictor plate racing at Daytona. Last week’s action at Atlanta was ideal to what we will see for the remainder of the season specifically surrounding the 1.5 mile tracks that dominate NASCAR’s schedules. As a result, I wanted to take a moment to reflect on a few of the key observations from Atlanta throughout all series that we will need to keep in mind moving forward as we start preparations for Las Vegas.
Camping World Truck Series – Parity
One of the major things that I learned watching Saturday’s Active Pest Control 200 is that the Truck Series has a lot of parity this season. I will shamelessly admit that Brett Moffitt was nowhere on my radar. Hell, I actually played a H2H matchup against Moffitt who later scored an upset victory. Despite the surprise win, there was a lot of good racing throughout the top half of the field. Stewart Friesen, Myatt Snider, Jesse Little, and Grant Enfinger all finished with top 10 finishing positions to score wins for the underdog names.
However, my main observation that I had from my first view of the Truck Series was there is no longer a single driver to beat or single standout. In the past few years, guys like William Byron, Erik Jones, and Christopher Bell were always our favorite among the Truck Series regulars. This year I do not see a single driver carrying that “favorite” title week in and week out to the same degree. Obviously Johnny Sauter would be the most likely candidate but I think you are going to see plenty of challenges from lesser known drivers just like we did last week with Brett Moffitt. I believe Noah Gragson and Ben Rhodes will be weekly challengers this year and I would not rule out Matt Crafton from being more competitive this year as well. More so than recent memory, we will have to pay close attention to how teams perform week to week.
Christopher Bell
My next observation maybe like the most obvious comment of the year but Christopher Bell is good. I mean really good. Kevin Harvick dominated the race and scored the victory in the Rinnai 250. However, I was equally impressed at Christopher Bell’s performance in his first stock car race at Atlanta. He was extremely fast throughout the entire weekend and he was able to keep speed in the car throughout green flag runs despite the extremely abrasive tire wear conditions. We know the #20 has a history of being fast and there is no doubt that team is likely one of the top 2 teams in the Xfinity Series. However, Atlanta is a track that can suck speed out of the most talented drivers. Atlanta is difficult to drive and difficult to manage your car throughout a race. Bell was able to do both and he did it well. I have no doubt that Bell is going to win several races this year and I also believe we can already consider the rookie a leading contender for the Xfinity Series title.
I also believe a shout out to John Hunter Nemechek is deserved considering he brought home a 4th place finish in his first Xfinity Series start. JHN overcame a blown tire early in the race to battle back and he drove a great race. I look forward to watching him more in his part-time role this season.
Ford Power – Chevy Concerns
I have been outspoken about my concerns from the Ford teams going into the year. Now I can hereby dismiss all of those concerns. Previously, we discussed the aero changes to the Chevy Camaro and how it aligned more closely with the Toyota chassis from an aerodynamic standpoint. Many people including myself expected Ford teams to struggle with their unchanged design. However, Ford teams dominated Atlanta and they even outperformed the Toyotas from a manufacturer standpoint. Kevin Harvick led the most laps and scored the victory, Brad Keselowski was 2nd, Clint Bowyer was 3rd, Joey Logano 6th, and Kurt Busch led 52 laps to bring home an 8th place finish. In total, Ford teams brought home 7 of the top 13 positions. Those finishing positions were not by coincidence but rather by performance. I was thoroughly impressed as they wiped away those preseason fears and flexed their muscles.
Instead, I believe we can now shift concern to the Chevy teams. I am not trying to create unnecessary manufacturer war but Chevy teams struggled throughout the entire weekend at Atlanta. The top two finishes Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott finished just 9th and 10th. I thought both drivers would be contending for a victory going into the week but that was never a realistic possibility. From the time cars unloaded, Chevy teams lacked speed. Even 5-time Atlanta winner, Jimmie Johnson was never a factor. I do not know what is exactly the problem but there is a major concern right now surrounding the Chevy teams.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
This week we move to another 1.5 mile track at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Though it is the same length, Las Vegas differs significantly from Atlanta. The banking in the turns are not as steep, the surface is not nearly as abrasive, and cars typically handle much better as compared to Atlanta. In many ways, Las Vegas Motor Speedway more closely resembles Chicagoland in layout/banking with a grip level comparative to Charlotte. Among active drivers, Jimmie Johnson has the most wins with (4) and Brad Keselowski (2) is the only other driver with multiple wins in Sin City. Martin Truex Jr is the defending Kobalt 400 winner.