2026 AdventHealth 400 Betting Race Picks

2026 Advent Health 400 Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday April 19th, 2026. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV: FOX

Last week, Ty Gibbs scored his first career win at Bristol Motor Speedway by winning the Food City 500. Gibbs was able to hold off two of the sport’s best in Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson after staying out following a late-race caution. As a result, Gibbs became just the 5th different winner in the Cup Series this season and moved to 4th in the points standings. On Sunday, the Cup Series will move from the bullring at Bristol to the 1.5 mile multi-groove layout at Kansas Speedway for the running of the Advent Health 400. Last year, Kansas produced one of the best races and finishes of the entire season and that is what we will be hoping for again on Sunday!

If you look at the history chart at Kansas Speedway, you may notice that Chevrolet drivers have won the last 4 races at Kansas with Kyle Larson capturing two of those checkered flags. While the wins have fallen in favor of the Chevrolet drivers, the actual performance metrics tell a different story. In last year’s AdventHealth 400, the Toyota drivers dominated the race. Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, and Bubba Wallace combined to lead more than 220 laps. In the closing laps, it appeared to be a battle among the Toyotas until several incidents of contact allowed Chase Elliott to steal the victory on the last lap. Needless to say, the Toyota drivers have performed much better at Kansas than the win chart may indicate.

The reason I mention the Toyota strength at Kansas is because many people forget that the Toyota manufacturers dominated the race at Las Vegas earlier this year which is the only race this season on a non-drafting 1.5 mile speedway. At Vegas, it was a battle between the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas and the Chevrolets from Hendrick Motorsports. I am closely monitoring that narrative this week for numerous reasons. Outside of Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports has struggled quite a bit. In fact, William Byron arguably had the worst performance of his career last week. Meanwhile, the majority of the Toyota teams between JGR and 23XI have been pretty fast everywhere this season. Will they continue to have the advantage again this week at Kansas?

Kansas – Cup Notes

Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 4 career wins at Kansas.
Kyle Larson (3), Joey Logano (3), Brad Keselowski (2), Chase Elliott (2), Kyle Busch (2), Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, and Bubba Wallace are former winners at Kansas.
Kyle Larson has finished 1st or 2nd in 5 of the last 9 races at Kansas.
Chase Briscoe has finished 4th in each of the last two races at Kansas.
Ryan Blaney has finished 4th or better in 2 of the last 3 starts at Kansas.
Denny Hamlin has finished in the Top 5 in 7 of the last 9 races at Kansas.
Chase Elliott has finished 7th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at Kansas.
Christopher Bell has finished 8th or better in 8 of the last 9 races at Kansas.
Alex Bowman has finished in the Top 10 in 6 of the last 7 races at Kansas.
Todd Gilliland has finished in the Top 14 in 3 of the last 4 races at Kansas.
Ty Gibbs has finished 25th or worse in 5 of the last 7 races at Kansas.
Erik Jones has finished 21st or worse in 7 of the last 9 races at Kansas.
The eventual race winner has started from the Top 5 starting positions in 4 of the last 5 races at Kansas.
There have been at least 7 cautions in each of the last 10 races at Kansas.
Chevrolet drivers have won the last 4 races at Kansas.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

As I alluded to in our preview, I was monitoring the Toyota teams coming into the weekend at Kansas and they definitely showed some speed on Saturday. In fact, Tyler Reddick earned his 3rd pole of the season following a fast lap of 185.300mph. Reddick led a group of Toyotas that earned 4 of the top 5 qualifying positions. Denny Hamlin (2nd), Ty Gibbs (3rd), and Chase Briscoe (5th) were the other Toyotas that produced strong qualifying efforts on Saturday. Kyle Larson (4th) was the only non-Toyota in the top 5 starting positions. Behind the top 5 heavy hitters, Carson Hocevar, Chris Buescher, Daniel Suarez, Ryan Blaney, and Bubba Wallace were among the additional names that rounded out the top 10 starting positions going into Sunday.

Before qualifying concluded on Saturday, Tyler Reddick was also the driver that emerged from practice as the driver to beat. Reddick posted the best 5, 15, and 20 lap consecutive averages which are the best indicator towards race speed on Sunday. Reddick has been the best driver this season in terms of outright speed and he appears to be trending in that direction again. Teammate Bubba Wallace and Chris Buescher were among the additional names that seemed to have really strong lap times in practice.

Meanwhile, I thought Christopher Bell stood out the most. Bell was among the 1st group that was on the track on Saturday but posted some of the best times of the practice despite the unfavorable track conditions. Bell was handicapped with his qualifying effort due to his early positions but appears to have a really strong ride heading into the weekend. Meanwhile, other names that are worth mentioning include the likes of Ty Gibbs, Ryan Blaney, and William Byron. On the other side of the spectrum, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin were among the names that seemed to fall off strong in practice.

Betting Targets

If we consider track history, practice observations, and our intermediate dynamic averages into the bulk of our handicapping formula, I believe the trio of Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell are the clear head and shoulders favorites going into Sunday. Hamlin and Larson have combined for 6 of the last 11 victories at Kansas. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell has actually produced the highest average driver rating (116.7) over the last 4 races which has resulted in finishes of 2nd and 3rd over the last two races at Kansas. While Tyler Reddick is receiving similar betting odds and has proved to be the fastest car throughout the season, I don’t think there is much “value” in his current betting odds. In fact, only Larson and Bell has enough “value” to warrant legitimate betting consideration among the “favorites.”

If you are looking for potential dark horses going into Sunday, I believe William Byron and Bubba Wallace are likely the best options that are receiving 15-1 odds or greater. We are getting great value on Byron following last week’s pathetic performance at Bristol that has been hidden as steering issues. Byron actually ranks as a top 4 driver in our dynamic averages and a top 6 driver at Kansas in recent races. Like Byron, Wallace is also getting pretty decent betting value based on numerous handicapping angles which suggest he definitely has a winning ceiling. Personally, I believe Wallace is better in H2H formats but he can be considered in all betting formats. Deeper into the field, I would mention names like Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, and Corey Heim as names that should outperform their current betting odds. Bowman and Heim showed strong speed in Saturday’s practice and seem to hit on numerous handicapping metrics. Meanwhile, Chastain has been excellent at Kansas despite having subpar equipment. Therefore, all 3 of those drivers have higher ceilings than current betting odds suggests.

2026 Draftkings AdventHealth 400 Optimal Lineup

2026 AdventHealth 400 Race Picks

*FINAL* Kyle Larson +600 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +600 (1 unit)
William Byron +1500 (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace+2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Prop Bets

Chase Briscoe -105 over Carson Hocevar (2 units)
Ty Gibbs -120 finishes Top 10 (2 units)
Chris Buescher +280 wins Group C (Hocevar, Wallace, Keselowski)(1 unit) *Caesars
William Byron +500 finishes Top Chevrolet (.5 unit)