Following a string of West Coast road course battles, the NASCAR Cup Series gets back to oval racing this Sunday with a landmark return to Chicagoland Speedway for the first time since 2019. Fans have been eagerly awaiting this weekend’s revival of Chicagoland Speedway because this 1.5-mile layout mirrors the prestigious, tire-chewing layouts like Darlington and Homestead. With a uniquely abrasive, low-grip surface, Chicagoland will challenge drivers as they search for a grip around this multi-groove speedway. For those reasons, we believe the racing should be good and bettors/handicappers should be optimistic for a potentially strong betting opportunity!
When tracks like Darlington, Homestead, and Chicagoland arrive on the schedule, I always get pretty excited from a handicapping perspective. The reason I get excited is because these tracks are typically strong handicapping tracks. At these low-grip tracks, the driver will be making the biggest difference from behind the wheel to keep speed in the car throughout a green flag run. As a result, we don’t see the big advantages/disadvantages in single lap speed or setup speed. While those things still exist (Toyota speed), we must look for the drivers that have typically excelled at these low-grip tracks. Since driver trends are more reliable than recency trends, we can put heavy confidence towards a lot of our selections or betting targets.
The unique betting aspect to this weekend’s return to Chicagoland Speedway is the elephant in the room in the fact that the Cup Series has not competed at this track since 2019. As a result, we have numerous drivers that have never raced at Chicagoland Speedway. For the drivers with experience, this will still be their first start at Chicagoland in the Next Gen Car. Therefore, I would not rely heavily on any prior Chicagoland performances. Instead, I believe the best handicapping angle this week is looking at how drivers have performed in the Next Gen at Homestead/Darlington. Once we have those metrics, we can build a baseline of expectations for Sunday’s eero 400!
*The data below is mostly informational this week. We are not basing any betting picks solely on prior Chicagoland Speedway performances.
The following data reflects the average driver rating of the last 5 combined races at Darlington and Homestead:
| Driver | Average Driver Rating |
|---|---|
| Tyler Reddick | 120.4 |
| Ryan Blaney | 107.4 |
| Denny Hamlin | 104.0 |
| William Byron | 103.7 |
| Chase Briscoe | 98.4 |
| Bubba Wallace | 93.1 |
| Chris Buescher | 91.6 |
| Chase Elliott | 85.1 |
| Kyle Larson | 83.2 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 82.6 |
| Ryan Preece | 81.6 |
| Austin Cindric | 80.3 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 79.7 |
| Alex Bowman | 79.5 |
| Christopher Bell | 77.8 |
| Brad Keselowski | 74.5 |
| Carson Hocevar | 72.9 |
| Erik Jones | 71.0 |
| Ty Gibbs | 70.6 |
| Ross Chastain | 70.5 |
| Zane Smith | 68.2 |
| Joey Logano | 65.8 |
| Daniel Suarez | 65.7 |
| Noah Gragson | 64.2 |
| Kyle Busch | 64.0 |
| Josh Berry | 62.1 |
| Austin Dillon | 60.2 |
| Michael McDowell | 59.3 |
| John H. Nemechek | 58.9 |
| Connor Zilisch | 56.2 |
| Justin Haley | 52.2 |
| Todd Gilliland | 49.1 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 48.0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 46.6 |
| Harrison Burton | 45.8 |
| Justin Allgaier | 45.5 |
| Ty Dillon | 43.3 |
| Austin Hill | 42.0 |
| Cole Custer | 40.9 |
| Riley Herbst | 40.3 |
| Daniel Hemric | 39.7 |
| Kaz Grala | 31.2 |
| Cody Ware | 29.5 |
| Corey LaJoie | 29.5 |
| Derek Kraus | 27.0 |
| J.J. Yeley | 24.6 |
| Timmy Hill | 24.5 |
| Chad Finchum | 23.7 |
Last week, Denny Hamlin emerged as the points leader for the first time this season after Tyler Reddick suffered mechanical issues at Sonoma. However before the two weeks of road course racing, Denny Hamlin had become the hottest driver in the sport winning the last 3 oval races at Nashville, Michigan, and Pocono. In each of those 3 races, Hamlin won the pole and won the race. I mention those facts because Hamlin returned to prominence on Saturday by capturing his 4th straight pole on the ovals. As a result, Hamlin will be looking to go for 4 for 4 in terms of poles/wins over the last 4 oval races. Behind Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski, and Ty Gibbs rounded out the top 5 starting positions.
In practice before qualifying, Kyle Larson actually appeared to be slightly faster than Hamlin. Larson posted the best overall average in practice and showed really solid long run speed. Meanwhile, Chase Briscoe, Tyler Reddick, Ty Gibbs, and Ryan Blaney were the other drivers that appeared to be within striking distance in the long-run speed department. On the other side of the fence, Joey Logano, Erik Jones, and Carson Hocevar were among the names that were trending well under expectations following practice. Both Jones and Logano had put together several quality performances in recent races on the ovals. However, both drivers were well off the pace in practice on Saturday. Meanwhile, I throw Hocevar into that mix because he is one of the drivers that you would expect to be really fast at a place like Chicagoland where the drivers make such a huge difference on the stopwatch. However, Hocevar was in the bottom half of the field in all speed departments on Saturday!
While Hamlin is the obvious choice to continue his hot-streak, I believe Kyle Larson may be the sharp pick for Sunday. Larson and the #5 team have been getting better on a near weekly basis. In fact, Larson current ranks #1 in our dynamic averages with the best average driver rating over the last 5 races. Due to Larson’s current momentum, handicapping stats at similar layouts, and elite wheelman skills at a track like Chicagoland, I believe we can make the argument that Larson should be the overall favorite going into Sunday. Behind Hamlin and Larson, I believe Tyler Reddick is an obvious 3rd option. The problem with Reddick is that he is receiving odds that mirror Larson and Hamlin. For that result, I have no interest in backing the #45 this week.
Behind the outright favorites, Chase Briscoe and Ryan Blaney are solid intermediate options. Both drivers have been running well in recent weeks and are among the best drivers on layouts similar to Chicagoland. For those reasons, I believe both drivers can be targeted in all formats. Deeper into the field, Chris Buescher and Alex Bowman are the drivers that have much higher upside than current betting odds suggest. Buescher has been the best performing Ford driver in the last several weeks. While Ford has struggled in speed, Chicagoland provides Buescher a higher ceiling than on normal weeks. Bowman is a former winner that had a lousy practice. However, the #48 team appeared to be focusing on long-run speed throughout the practice and I believe their ceiling is much higher than current betting odds suggest. As a result, both drivers can be considered in H2H and prop bet formats.
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