The Sunday of Memorial Day Weekend is commonly known in the racing world as the “Greatest Day in Motorsports.” Historically, this day has hosted a triple threat of some of the most prestigious races in the sport in F1 (Monaco Grand Prix), IndyCar (Indy 500), and NASCAR (Coca Cola 600). However, the 2026 version of the Greatest Day in Motorsports is going to feel different this year for multiple reasons. For starters, the Monaco Grand Prix has been pushed back to June and perhaps more importantly the racing world is still trying to comprehend the sudden passing of NASCAR superstar Kyle Busch. For the first time since 2003, Kyle “Rowdy” Busch will not be behind the wheel when the green flag waves for the 67th running of the Coca Cola 600 and that will undoubtedly have a somber feel to Sunday’s magical day.
So far this weekend, Charlotte’s racing activities have not exactly gone according to plan. The Truck Series race was postponed Friday night and was scheduled to begin at 8am this morning. Instead, rain has been consistent throughout the day. As things currently stand, both the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series and Truck Series are hoping to get their races in later tonight and it is still uncertain if either of those events will happen. Luckily, the Cup Series did find a small window of opportunity earlier today and was able to get in about 45 minutes of practice before rain halted on-track activities again. As a result, qualifying was cancelled which means the starting lineup will be set by the rulebook which means that points leader Tyler Reddick will have the luxury of leading the field to the green flag Sunday evening, weather permitting.
Of course in a race as long as the Coca Cola 600, starting positions are not nearly as important compared to other races. In fact, Ross Chastain won last year’s Coca Cola 600 after starting dead last in the 40th position. Chastain actually won in a backup car after crashing on Saturday prior to last year’s race. Needless to say, starting positions should not be given too much credit especially with drivers not even having the opportunity to qualify earlier this afternoon. Additionally, the Coca Cola 600 has produced a pretty diverse group of winners over the last several years. In fact, there have been 9 different winners over the last 9 Coca Cola 600 races. Therefore, we will need to keep an open mind when reviewing betting odds and ultimately making our betting selections!
When it comes to handicapping Charlotte, we must use several handicapping metrics to paint the picture of how things could possibly unfold. For starters, we must review our dynamic averages at the 1.5 mile venues to gauge how teams have performed recently at similar venues. In that specific performance metric, Denny Hamlin has been incredibly impressive leading all drivers by a wide margin with a 132.8 average driver rating. Hamlin won at Las Vegas earlier this year and led more than half the laps at Las Vegas and Kansas combined. Behind Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, and Christopher Bell are the only other drivers to produce a +100 average driver rating over the last 5 races at 1.5 mile venues.
Aside from the recent performance metrics at similar venues, we must also evaluate how drivers/teams have performance at Charlotte specifically in recent years. If you look at the last few races at Charlotte, William Byron (129.5) and Christopher Bell (110.9) are the only drivers that have produced a +100 average driver rating over the last 3 races at Charlotte. Meanwhile, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin are the only other drivers to produce a +90 average driver rating compared to the rest of the field. Meanwhile, popular and normally contending drivers like Chase Briscoe, Kyle Larson, and Joey Logano have failed to eclipse a 70+ driver rating over the last 3 races and rank towards the bottom half of the field. Needless to say, we must consider all these various factors ahead of Sunday’s Coca Cola 600.
In the 45-minute rain-shortened practice on Saturday, Ricky Stenhouse Jr posted the fastest lap with a speed of 185.764mph. Stenhouse was followed by Carson Hocevar, Michael McDowell, Ryan Blaney, and Corey Heim among the drivers that posted the fastest single lap speeds. All of those fast laps were laid down in the opening moments of practice while track conditions were coolest. Due to the shortened time-frame, most teams/drivers were only able to run about 20-30 laps and even fewer had enough time to make any significant adjustments. From what we are able to observe, Michael McDowell appeared to be the best in terms of consistency.McDowell posted the best 5 and 10 lap consecutive averages. Erik Jones also showed good speed as well with the fastest 15 lap average. Aside from those names that took advantage of the early conditions, I thought the Joe Gibbs Racing cars were all fairly impressive. Denny Hamlin posted really good lap times. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs were also fairly strong. Ross Chastain and Ryan Blaney were also really solid on the stopwatch as well. On the other side of the fence, Chase Elliott and Brad Keselowski were among the notable names with strong Charlotte resumes that seemed to be off in the speed department on Saturday.
If you have not noticed, Denny Hamlin is firing on nearly every handicapping metric by a relatively wide margin. Hamlin has been red-hot in recent weeks and is fresh off an All-Star Race win at Dover last week. More importantly, Hamlin has been the best driver in the Cup Series going back to last year at the 1.5 mile venues and also has a pretty impressive resume, in terms of performance, at Charlotte specifically. Needless to say, if anyone wanted a single driver to bet on going into Sunday’s Coca Cola 600, Denny Hamlin should be that target regardless of betting odds. Behind Hamlin, I think there is a lot more uncertainty around the 10 additional drivers that are less than 15-1 odds. Tyler Reddick obviously deserves the utmost respect due to his 2026 success and strong Charlotte resume. However, I am tempted to look for better betting value in the likes of William Byron and Chase Elliott. Both drivers have been really good at Charlotte. Byron has finished 4th or better in 4 of the last 5 races. Meanwhile, Elliott won at Texas just a few weeks ago and has been running extremely well over the last several weeks. As a result, I like both drivers going into Sunday!
If we look deeper into the field, Ross Chastain stands out as one of the drivers with significant betting value as the defending winner of the Coca Cola 600. While I understand that TrackHouse Racing has struggled this year, Chastain still showed good speed on Saturday and is one of those drivers that usually gets better as races wind down which is perfect for a 600-mile race. While I am not exactly confident in any big dark horses in terms of upset potential, I will draw attention to names like Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Austin Dillon. Stenhouse was fastest in practice on Saturday and has a strong Charlotte resume for a bottom-tier talent that includes finishes of 12th or better in 5 of the last 6 races at Charlotte. Meanwhile, Dillon is a former Coca Cola 600 winner that has struggled significantly in recent years with Richard Childress Racing. However, those RCR cars have found better speed in recent weeks and I would imagine they will give a valiant effort on Sunday given the circumstances. As a result, I believe Stenhouse and Dillon are excellent choices for prop bets that are low-risk/high-yield style bets.
For many years, North Wilkesboro Speedway rested in the hills of North Carolina as a…
On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series will return to North Wilkesboro Speedway for the first points-paying…
Later tonight NASCAR’s Cup Series will make its return to EchoPark Speedway for the running…
The Craftsman Truck Series and O’Reilly Auto Parts Series will both be in action on…
It has been nearly a month since Layne Riggs secured his fourth victory of the…
Following a string of West Coast road course battles, the NASCAR Cup Series gets back…
This website uses cookies.