2018 Can-Am 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday November 11th, 2:35PM (EST) at ISM Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Sunday, the Monster Energy Cup Series will have their moment in the Valley of the Sun when the green flag waves for the Can-Am 500 at ISM Raceway. Tomorrow’s race will ultimately decide the final 4 drivers that will move onto Homestead for a chance at the Cup Series Championship. The major storyline entering Sunday’s race is the penalty Kevin Harvick received this week following the victory at Texas last week. The #4 team was handed a L1-level penalty for alterations to the rear spoiler. The penalty not only nullified Harvick’s win, that previously clinched his championship bid, but the team was also docked 40 championship points which puts them right at the cut off line going into Sunday. Therefore there is a chance that the most dominant driver this season could be eliminated with a poor performance. We take this time to discuss the championship picture, our expectations, and ultimately provide our 2018 Can-Am 500 race picks for Phoenix!

While Harvick currently resides 3 points ahead of the cut off line, most would consider the #4 team safe barring trouble on Sunday. It is no secret that ISM Raceway (Phoenix) has been Harvick’s stomping ground where he has won 9 times including 7 of the last 12 races. After this week’s penalty and Chase drama shrouded the team, Harvick silenced critics by winning the pole on Friday and then leading both practices earlier today. It was not just simply fast lap times that made the statement either. Harvick also posted the best 5, 10, and 15 lap averages in final practice to solidify his position as the overwhelming favorite ahead of the Can-Am 500 in this potential revenge spot following this week’s penalty.

To simplify the playoff scenario without being too technical, Joey Logano is locked in thanks to his win at Martinsville. Kyle Busch (+28) and Martin Truex (+25) just need to avoid a disastrous type of afternoon. Harvick (+3), Kurt Busch (-3), and Chase Elliott (-17) can all point their win into Homestead but are likely racing each other for that final position. Of course, Elliott would need the most help for that situation to unfold. Meanwhile, Aric Almirola and Clint Bowyer can only advance with a victory on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick looking for 10th Phoenix victory

From an expectations standpoint, Kevin Harvick appears to be in a prime situation to score his 10th victory at ISM Raceway. The #4 car has been absolutely phenomenal throughout the weekend. The practice sheets really don’t serve justice for the type of speed Harvick has shown in race trim. Based on lap time observations in both practices today, Harvick’s car seems to get better as the run progresses and had the field covered by 1-2 tenths on average. Of course a lot can happen in 500 miles especially with this new restart zone at Phoenix. Still, the competition is probably going to need the #4 team to have bad luck if we are going to see a different name in victory lane.

Aside from Harvick, I believe you have to consider Kyle Busch among the big favorites. Busch’s success at Phoenix has been overshadowed by Harvick. However, Busch’s numbers are extremely impressive with finishes of 4th or better in 6 of the last 7 races. Busch was towards the top of most categories today on the speed charts and if you combine that with his track history, he should be a driver that will contend yet again on Sunday. Among the intermediate range drivers, you have a lot of drivers that probably deserve mentions. However, the guys that stood out to me personally were the likes of Chase Elliott and Brad Keselowski.

Keselowski does not have the track history success to match some of the other competitors with just 5 top 5 finishes in 18 career starts and 0 wins. However, the #2 really stood out in terms of lap times earlier today and we know this team is capable of winning on any given Sunday. For Elliott, I think he is among the biggest challengers for Harvick and Busch on Sunday. Some could make the case for Martin Truex as the next biggest challenge and while the #78 has also looked solid; I think Elliott is the bigger threat. The #9 car showed plenty of speed on the long run earlier and has shown a lot of success at ISM Raceway in his early career. Elliott currently has the 2nd best average finishing position among active drivers, behind Harvick, that includes finishes of 2nd and 3rd in his last two starts. Expect the #9 to be strong.

2018 Can-Am 500 Betting Matchups and Dark Horses

In terms of betting odds and some drivers that could deliver some upside value on Sunday, I believe Erik Jones should be atop the list. Jones has been really solid in his first few starts at ISM Raceway finishing 8th, 4th, and 9th in his last 3 starts. This track fits Jones’ driving style perfectly and he has looked really good throughout practices. In fact, he posted the best average lap time of the entire final session; granted he ran fewer laps that some of the competitors. Still if you look back to the beginning of Jones’ career, Phoenix is the place where he earned his opportunity in NASCAR by winning in a part-time role with Kyle Busch Motorsports in the Truck Series in just his 5th start. That win was back in 2013 when Jones became the youngest driver (at the time) in NASCAR’s top touring series to earn a victory at the age of 17. As a result, Jones and this track have some history. It is only a matter of time before that success will be rekindled at the Cup Series level.

I would personally look for Jones in match-up opportunities and as a dark horse for the outright victory. A few other drivers that I believe will be sharp picks in the form of H2H match-ups include the #41 of Kurt Busch and the #22 of Joey Logano. For whatever reason, Logano keeps flying under the radar which is surprising considering he is the only driver locked into the championship round at Homestead. It’s not just the championship fact that makes Logano valuable, he has been consistently strong throughout the 2nd half of the season. In the last 5 races, he has posted 1 win, 4 top 5 finishes, and a 8th place showing at Kansas. Take notice, the #22 is in championship form. For Kurt Busch, I feel like he is another driver flying under the radar this week. Busch is a former winner at ISM Raceway and has posted several quality finishes in recent years. The #41 has been showing a lot of speed in recent weeks and is posed to continue that trend on Sunday.

Take advantage of great odds for all major sports with BetOnline. Hit the link for a 50% sign-up bonus

2018 Can-Am 500 Draftkings Fantasy Racing Predictions at ISM Raceway

For my fantasy bettors, I don’t see how anyone leaves Harvick off their lineup tomorrow despite the heavy price tag. I have the feeling this could be a dominate afternoon and even if Harvick does not win; he could still hit value if he leads a lot of laps early which I expect will happen. If you take Harvick like I suggest, you will have to be sharp with your remaining picks. If you do not want to take Harvick, Kyle Busch is a formidable alternative for slightly cheaper.

Chase Elliott, Erik Jones, and Brad Keselowski are all really solid intermediate range picks. I personally like Jones at his price of $8,300 and Keselowski who has some upside from the 12th starting position. Of course fantasy lineups are only successful if you have a few some strong bottom tier picks that can stay out of trouble. David Ragan and Austin Dillon are two drivers that have been performing really well in recent weeks for fantasy purposes. Dillon qualified a little better this week which may hurt his upside. However, Ragan has averaged nearly 35 points the last 3 races and should be another solid pick tomorrow afternoon. I would also throw Daniel Suarez and Ross Chastain into the mix. ISM Raceway is a track where Chastain can make a little ground on his equipment disadvantage and I expect Suarez to rebound from his 26th qualifying effort which should present some additional value as well.

2018 Can-Am 500 Race Picks

Take the opportunity to sign-up for the only book that provides the best NASCAR odds each week. Hit the link for a sign-up bonus with 5Dimes

*Final

Chase Elliott +900 (1.25 units)
Brad Keselowski +1250 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +2000 (.75 unit)
Erik Jones +2450 (.75 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Christopher Bell +175 wins Whelen Trusted to Perform 200 (win)
Kyle Busch/Martin Truex +375 wins Can-Am 500
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1500

H2H Match-ups and Props

Chase Elliott -115 over Kyle Larson (3 units)
Erik Jones -130 over Clint Bowyer (3 units)
Joey Logano -130 over Aric Almirola (3 units)
Kevin Harvick +175 wins Can-Am 500 (3 units) *cover play