2018 Ford Ecoboost 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Friday November 16th, 8:09PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Championship weekend has arrived at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Tonight the Camping World Truck Series will step into the prime time spotlight with the running of the Ford Ecoboost 200 which will ultimately decide the Truck Series Championship. Truck Series teams and drivers have been busy today with two qualifying sessions and qualifying. In qualifying, Grant Enfinger earned the pole over Stewart Friesen and will help lead the field to the green flag. As we prepare for the final weekend of racing, we take the time to breakdown tonight’s race and provide our best betting opportunities with our 2018 Ford Ecoboost 200 race picks!

A lot of fans will have eyes geared towards the race for the championship tonight between Johnny Sauter, Brett Moffitt, Noah Gragson, and Justin Haley. Obviously Sauter and Moffitt remain the big favorites due to their dominance throughout the season. I believe most consider Sauter the overall favorite due to the fact he has consistently had the premier speed along with the combined fact that he is the reigning Truck Series Champion. However, Moffitt has arguably been just as strong this year and is on the heels of an impressive win last week at ISM Raceway. I have considered Moffitt the best driver in the Truck Series throughout the year on many occasions and that was no more apparent last week when he drove a mediocre truck to victory lane.

The difficulty towards deciding who will prevail tonight in the Ford Ecoboost 200 is first acknowledging the difficulty of the track. Homestead-Miami Speedway has an extremely low level of grip that makes handling difficult from the driver’s seat. Obviously at any 1.5 mile track, drivers want to get in the gas as early as possible on corner exit. Still, Homestead does not provide a lot of comfort in terms of grip. Additionally, lap speeds fall off significant over the course of green flag runs. We are talking about fall off in lap times that extend to nearly 3 seconds between the beginning and end of fuel runs. Therefore there will be several x-factors tonight. What driver manages the tires and long run speed? Does pit strategy come into play with the number of tires available? Those questions and others will only intensify the difficulty into trying to predict tonight’s race.

As much as I like to examine practice speeds on the 1.5 mile tracks, I think the majority of practice speeds are null and void for Homestead. Short run speed is extremely insignificant at Homestead which makes it hard to guess who will have the best truck by the end of the night. However I will say from experience, that typically the best drivers emerge in these races at Homestead. Sure you need a truck that will maintain its speed but the driver can make a huge difference over the course of 200 miles. If you look at this race from the talent behind the wheel perspective and combine it with the drivers that have been strong this year on these types of surfaces, I think we can immediately add value to the likes of Brett Moffitt and Stewart Friesen. Both are dynamic wheelman and are excellent on low grip surfaces. I personally thought Moffitt had some of the best practice times today but then again practice indicators are typically worthless at Homestead.

For those considering the likes of Noah Gragson and Justin Haley, I cannot blame anyone for wanting to step out and take a chance on those driver’s chances for the championship. Gragson definitely has a lot of speed in the #18 truck and Haley has been very solid over the last two months. If I was going to take a surprise winner for the championship, I might actually pick Haley. I am just not sure if I can trust Gragson on this type of racetrack under these types of conditions. We have seen the driver of the #18 get very wreckless in high pressure situations in the past and it would not surprise me if he gets himself into a bad situation if he gets desperate again this evening.

Because Homestead can be so unpredictable, I will say that bettors should give some value to the intermediate ranged underdogs. Stewart Friesen, Grant Enfinger, and John Hunter Nemechek are names that should not be overlooked. Again, I expect the better drivers to emerge from the pack tonight as the race progresses. As a result, there should also be some betting match-up opportunities that have some value if you consider most odds will be overvalued due to qualifying results. I took a pair of early H2H match-ups this week that I am happy with and I may add more. After all it is the final race of the year in the Truck Series, so let’s go out with a bang!

2018 Can-Am 500 Race Picks

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*Final

Brett Moffitt +450 (1.5 units)
Stewart Friesen +800 (1.25 units)
John Hunter Nemechek +1200 (1 unit)
Grant Enfinger +1800 (.75 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Johnny Sauter +330 wins Ford Ecoboost 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-ups

John Hunter Nemechek -115 over Matt Crafton (2 units) *early play
Brett Moffitt +125 over Noah Gragson (2 units) *early play
Stewart Friesen +100 over Ben Rhodes (2 units)