2018 Lucas Oil 150 Race Picks
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Friday November 9th, 8:40PM (EST) at ISM Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The Camping World Truck Series will get the opportunity to kick off the racing weekend once again this week with tonight’s Lucas Oil 150 at ISM Raceway. Currently Johnny Sauter and Justin Haley have secured their championship bids for next week at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Tonight two spots remain open between 4 drivers for the opportunity at the championship. The drivers fighting for those transfer spots are between the likes of Brett Moffitt, Noah Gragson, Grant Enfinger, and Matt Crafton. We take the time to discuss the drivers who should race well this evening and provide some betting opportunities with our 2018 Lucas Oil 150 race picks!
One year ago Johnny Sauter piloted the #21 truck to a victory at ISM Raceway and then used that momentum to seal the championship the following week at Homestead. Sauter has been the best driver in the Truck Series this year and will once again be among tonight’s overall favorites. However, I fear the risk outweighs the reward for Sauter tonight from an odds standpoint. Sauter has not been dominate at Phoenix. He has posted quality finishes but has led just 16 laps in his 9 career starts. Often he is good but not great. Therefore, I am looking towards other drivers as potential bets tonight that carry higher reward potential.
Among the trucks that I am giving strong attention to tonight include the Kyle Busch Motorsports brigade. Noah Gragson, Harrison Burton, and Todd Gilliland have all been really strong. Burton and Gragson finished 1st-2nd in both practices this morning. Burton was also really strong on the long run and I would elevate Gragson’s stock as well for the simple fact that he ran really well here last year before wrecking. From a pure speed standpoint, the KBM trucks just seem to have an edge. While he may not have been on top of the charts in practices, Gilliland has been running well throughout the 2nd half of the season. I expect the #4 to be a factor tonight despite what the speecharts may have shown.
Among the rest of the field, I believe Brett Moffitt has the best truck to contend tonight. Guys like Justin Haley, John Hunter Nemechek, and Grant Enfinger have provided moments of glory in recent weeks. Haley scored the win last week at Texas after Gilliland ran out of gas on the last lap. However, I am just not sure if I have enough confidence in any of those competitors tonight to pull the trigger. For Moffitt, he has been really solid throughout practices and honestly has been one of the best trucks through the playoffs. Moffitt has back to back finishes of 2nd and 3rd in recent weeks and will undoubtedly have an opportunity to make a run at things this evening.
If you are looking for a few sharp picks in H2H match-ups, I would suggest Matt Crafton and Ben Rhodes as choices to bring home some bacon. If anyone know me, they know I absolutely hate betting on Matt Crafton. Personally, I think he is extremely overrated driver and often lacks the aggressiveness to finish where the truck deserves. Still, Crafton has been really good at Phoenix in recent years when he has avoided trouble with several quality finishes. From a statistical standpoint, Crafton has 6 top 5 finishes and 11 top 10 finishes in just 16 career starts at Phoenix. If he can avoid trouble, he should be a sharp play this evening with a truck that looked solid earlier. Likewise, I would not rule Ben Rhodes out of a surprisingly decent run. Rhodes has enough experience and his driving style suits the racing at Phoenix. Expect him to move forward when the green flag waves.
2018 Lucas Oil 150 Race Picks
*Final
Harrison Burton +900 (1 unit)
Brett Moffitt +1200 (1.25 units)
Todd Gilliland +1650 (.75 unit)
Two Team Parlays
Noah Gragson +200 wins Lucas Oil 150
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD
Matt Crafton +175 over Stewart Friesen
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD
H2H Matchups
Brett Moffitt +100 over Johnny Sauter (3 units)
Matt Crafton -115 over Grant Enfinger (2 units)
