2021 Pinty’s Truck Race Picks
- Updated: March 26, 2021
Saturday March 27th, 2021. 5:00PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
The most intriguing and anticipated racing weekend of the season has arrived. On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series will return to the dirt for the first time in 50 years in the Food City Bristol Dirt Race. Before Sunday’s anticipated return to dirt in the Cup Series, the Camping World Truck Series will compete on the high-banks of the newly transformed Bristol Motor Speedway in what could be the most exciting race of the weekend. The current entry list has many of NASCAR’s most recognizable names including Kyle Larson, Martin Truex, Kevin Harvick, Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, Ryan Newman, and others. Needless to say, this will be a must-see event in the biggest Truck Series event of the season.
Before the green flag waves Saturday night, I wanted to take the time to outline some expectations and provide the best betting plays. Obviously, both dirt races this weekend provide a wildcard factor because of the limited dirt experience we have the luxury of witnessing in NASCAR. Fortunately for the Camping World Truck Series, this will not be their first trip to the dirt. The Truck Series previously competed annually at Eldora Speedway. Interestingly enough, this Saturday’s field contains 5 prior winners on the dirt at Eldora including Bubba Wallace, Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, Matt Crafton, and Stewart Friesen. Therefore, we actually have some decent history on the dirt, as opposed to the Cup Series, for this Saturday’s race despite never competing previously at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Betting Strategy
In terms of betting strategy, I believe we approach both dirt races with a superspeedway mentality. The half-mile dirt track at Bristol is the complete opposite of a superspeedway in terms of what is happening behind the wheel. From a betting standpoint, I believe both races share some similarities. In the prior dirt races at Eldora in the Camping World Truck Series, we have seen underdogs prevail more often than favorites. Austin Dillon upset Kyle Larson for the inaugural win at Eldora in 2013, Bubba Wallace accomplished a similar feat the very next year. Meanwhile, Chase Briscoe and Matt Crafton were surprise winners in 2017 and 2018.
As a result, I don’t believe we can bank on a single driver by any stretch of the imagination. Dirt track racing yields trucks sliding against the wheel and fender banging racing that can easily shake up the running order by virtue of accidents, cut tires, or other misfortune. Everyone knows Kyle Larson and the other Cup Series stars will be heavy favorites in this event. While Larson may be the best dirt track talent in the world, even he has experienced struggles in prior Truck Series races on the dirt. It took Larson 3 starts at Eldora before he was finally able to taste victory lane which proves not only how difficult it is to win these races but also that everything must go your way. As a result, we should be able to extract some decent value from some of the drivers outside the top favorites that will have an opportunity to spoil the show just as we have seen frequently at Eldora.
Former Loop Data at Eldora
The Camping World Truck Series has participated in 7 dirt races at Eldora Speedway which give us our best observable data this week. While the Truck Series will not return to Eldora this season, there will be another dirt race at Knoxville in July. The good thing about the prior races at Eldora is that it does provide a baseline of expectations for many of the Truck Series regulars. Additionally, many of the Cup Series drivers that are competing Saturday night have also competed at Eldora. Therefore, I wanted to compile all of the loop data stats for everyone that will be racing this weekend. Even for guys like Erik Jones, William Byron, and others that have worked their way up through the Truck Series, we can use this data to see how they previously performed on the closest NASCAR competition on dirt. Obviously, the data below is only for reference. Saturday’s race will be on a completely different track and surface. The ultimate goal of providing this view is to give everyone a fundamental baseline based on the closest comparison that we have at our disposal!
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Races | Start | Mid Race | Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | 125.6 | 3 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 18 | 56 | 126 |
| Kyle Larson | 121.6 | 3 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 8 | 73 | 104 |
| Chase Briscoe | 121.4 | 3 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 23.0 | 55.0 | 147.0 |
| Bubba Wallace | 120.7 | 2 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 9 | 51 | 97 |
| Stewart Friesen | 112.4 | 4 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 29 | 64 | 150 |
| Grant Enfinger | 104.0 | 3 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 6.7 | 46 | 22 | 1 |
| Austin Dillon | 103.9 | 3 | 16.0 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 30 | 29 | 72 |
| Tyler Reddick | 103.0 | 3 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 5.3 | -8.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 |
| Todd Gilliland | 97.5 | 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 13.5 | 7.0 | -6 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Crafton | 97.3 | 7 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 23 | 24 | 24 |
| Ryan Newman | 90.9 | 2 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 16.5 | 14.5 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Ross Chastain | 88.4 | 1 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | -5 | 2 | 0 |
| Ty Dillon | 88.2 | 5 | 14.0 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 23 | 30 | 0 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 84.6 | 5 | 14.6 | 12.2 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 35 | 3 | 12 |
| Ryan Blaney | 81.6 | 2 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Brett Moffitt | 81.5 | 2 | 7.5 | 19.5 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| Erik Jones | 81.0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 16.5 | 14.5 | 8 | 5 | 24 |
| Mike Marlor | 79.8 | 1 | 23.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Timothy Peters | 79.2 | 4 | 11 | 13.25 | 18 | 13.25 | -11 | 10 | 23 |
| Sheldon Creed | 74.1 | 4 | 15.0 | 16.8 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 26 | 8 | 0 |
| Myatt Snider | 73.5 | 1 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Austin Wayne Self | 73.2 | 3 | 23.7 | 10.3 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Rhodes | 71.4 | 4 | 5.5 | 18.3 | 24.0 | 16.3 | -38 | 18 | 44 |
| Tyler Ankrum | 71.2 | 1 | 26.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Truex | 70.5 | 1 | 8.0 | 24.0 | 20.0 | 17.0 | -5 | 0 | 0 |
| Carson Hocevar | 67.8 | 1 | 13.0 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 18.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnny Sauter | 64.8 | 7 | 12.7 | 16.9 | 18.9 | 16.3 | -50 | 4 | 0 |
| William Byron | 62.9 | 1 | 18.0 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Hill | 56.6 | 2 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 26.5 | 21.0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Keselowski | 55.9 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 28 | 16 | -25 | 1 | 0 |
| Cole Custer | 55.3 | 2 | 23.5 | 21.5 | 17.5 | 20.0 | -2 | 1 | 0 |
| J.R Hefner | 50.8 | 3 | 13.3 | 21.0 | 19.0 | 20.0 | -23.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Norm Benning | 38.9 | 6 | 24.3 | 24.3 | 23.2 | 24.2 | -12 | 2 | 0 |
| Jennifer Jo Cobb | 32.4 | 3 | 29.3 | 26.3 | 24.0 | 26.0 | -13 | 3 | 0 |
Friday’s Practices
The Camping World Truck Series participated in two practices earlier this afternoon which featured a wide array of results. If you happen to look at the practice times, it can be slightly misleading and confusing mainly because the track changed so much with each session between the Truck and Cup Series’. In the opening session, Raphael Lessard posted the fastest lap of the day on his first lap on track with a 19.384 lap (92.86mph). In the final practice, Ben Rhodes paced the field with a lap of 20.703 (86.944PMH). As you can see, the lap times between the fastest lap in both practices was a full second and a half difference which proves how much the track changed between both sessions. Remember, both Cup Series and Truck Series will host qualifying races on Saturday (barring Mother Nature) meaning the track is likely to go through several significant changes before the green flag waves.
From observing both practices, I honestly believe Chase Briscoe and Stewart Friesen showed the most speed. Obviously, we are not going to base betting picks solely off practice observations but I was impressed with both the #04 and #52 machines as they were in the top times in both sessions. Kyle Larson did not have the single lap speed but was consistently among the fastest trucks after 4-5 laps. Larson consistently put the truck on the top side of the race track to widen the groove and I expect to see him do the same on Saturday. I think everybody is expecting Larson to win this race based on his dominant dirt background but if I am being honest; I see absolutely no value in betting him at +250 odds. I have been very critical of Niece Motorsports’ speed this year and despite Larson’s talent; the equipment factor is hard to ignore at such low odds.
The most notable observations from practices likely pertained to the lack of dominance by the Cup Series veterans. Martin Truex finished outside the top 15 in both sessions, Harvick’s got better in the final session but was only in the 10th position, and former Eldora winner Bubba Wallace was pretty much a non-factor in terms of superior speed. I already knew that many of the Cup Series drivers would be overvalued this week and I think practices proved that point. It appeared Martin Truex really gained some ground late in final practice but none of the Cup Series drivers competing tomorrow deserve to be heavy favorites outside of Kyle Larson. Perhaps the value this week will be geared towards fading those big names.
Betting Targets
This entire week, I was planning to bet on Stewart Friesen. I have really liked the speed from the #52 team and believe this is a great opportunity to steal some value with so many high profile names competing. Unfortunately, we did not see great odds on Friesen from openers and I definitely don’t expect odds to improve on Saturday. Despite the odds concern, I still believe Friesen is one of the sharper picks among the favorites. The #52 has been incredibly fast and consistent throughout the weekend and he also drew a pretty favorable qualifying race as well.
Among the more popular names, it will be tough to conceal the talent of Chase Briscoe and Kyle Larson in this race. Despite the equipment concern with Larson, he is the best dirt track driver in the world and I expect he will get better as this race progresses. I simply cannot bet him at near 2-1 odds. For Chase Briscoe, it’s another situation of poor value. As mentioned earlier, Briscoe is a former dirt winner at Eldora and has looked solid thus far. Among the Cup Series drivers, Briscoe and Larson are the clear drivers to beat.
For betting targets, we have to be very selective this week. There will be numerous H2H match-ups or drivers with potential value. We must remember this style of racing is volatile. A simple spin, cut tire, or product of close dirt racing could easily ruin someone’s day. If we are going to choose betting match-ups, we need to have a high level of confidence that those drivers will perform significantly better than their expectations. The drivers that I believe meet that criteria include Tanner Gray and Ryan Newman. I have not mentioned Newman much previously but he is one of the few Cup Series’ drivers that could surprise on Saturday. Newman has plenty of dirt experience and is a notorious wheelman. In the final practice, he posted some incredible 5 and 10 lap averages.
Meanwhile, Tanner Gray had a great Friday afternoon after showing speed in both practices. Gray has a wide array of racing experience from Drag Racing, Sprint Cars, Late Models, and more despite being just 21 years old. Apparently the diverse experience has proved worthy for Saturday’s Bristol experience. In terms of surprises, I thought Tanney Gray was the biggest surprise in lap times through both of Friday’s practices with finishes of 6th and 3rd in fast lap times. More importantly, Gray was equally strong in the consecutive lap buckets. If we look at expectations before Friday and compare them with the drivers that impressed the most, Gray is towards the top of the list and thus deserves some strong H2H consideration.
Drivers to Fade
Among NASCAR’s popular names, I truly believe Harvick and Truex deserve fade consideration. H2H match-ups have not been posted at this time but I would not be surprised to see Harvick and Truex paired against each other. Both drivers qualify as having prestigious reputations but have shown minimal dirt talent thus far. I believe both drivers are competing Saturday night to gain experience for Sunday’s Cup Series race yet oddsmakers are giving them way too much credit. For Bubba Wallace, I have no guesses what kind of talent he will be paired against in H2H match-ups. However, his lap times were awful in practices. I am tempted to fade Wallace outright regardless of match-ups but will wait to see how the pairings unfold. Other potential fades include Zane Smith and Johnny Sauter. Sauter has poorly performed in every dirt race at Eldora which is obvious from the loop data stats above. Lastly, Smith simply seems to be out of his element in this type of racing. I noticed his laps were extremely inconsistent and that will cause troubles in race conditions.
Draftkings Pinty’s Dirt Truck Race Optimal Lineup
2021 Pinty’s Dirt Truck Race Betting Picks
*More plays to be added as more odds are offered. Check for “final” status for complete lineup*
Pinty’s Truck Race odds can be found at MyBookie
Stewart Friesen +700 (1 unit)Sheldon Creed +1400 (.5 unit)
Ryan Newman +2800 (.5 unit)
Ben Rhodes +3300 (.5 unit)
Raphael Lessard +10000 (.25 unit)
Tanner Gray +10000 (.25 unit)
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